UCR Summary of Reported Crimes in the Nation, 2024
Cited in 2 Likelier entries (2 risks, 0 decisions).
Used in 2 entries
For each citing entry, the verbatim excerpt and Likelier's calculation notes (how the source's number was converted to the lifetime-probability framing) are shown below. Click through to read the full claim ledger.
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- Statistic
Estimated 405,776 burglaries in residence locations and 373,766 in non-residence locations in 2024; burglary rate 229.2 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2024, 253.3 in 2023 and 738.9 in 2005 (Figure 15); burglary down an estimated 8.6% from 2023
“"Burglary decreased an estimated 8.6%. [...] Burglaries occurring in residence locations decreased each year from an estimated 565,842 offenses in 2020, to an estimated 405,776 in 2024. Burglaries occurring in non-residence locations, e.g., stores and offices, fluctuated over the past 5 years from an estimated 452,896 offenses in 2020, to an estimated 373,766 in 2024. [...] Burglary Rate 738.9 [...] 253.3 229.2"”
Calculation notes
The FBI gives the residential count directly: an estimated 405,776 burglaries in residence locations in 2024 (373,766 in non-residence locations, 779,542 burglaries in all). The last row of the excerpt is the burglary rate per 100,000 inhabitants from the 20-year table in Figure 15 of the report, 738.9 in 2005 and 229.2 in 2024, a fall of about 69% in two decades. The count is of offenses, not households, so the per-household rate divides 405,776 by 132,216,000 US households in 2024 (Census Bureau Table HH-1, the next source; the count does not come from this report): 0.003069, or ~3.07 per 1,000 households per year. Over 40 years: 1 - (1 - 0.00307)^40 = 0.116, or ~12% lifetime probability. An earlier version of this entry divided by "about 140 million" households, which gave 2.9 per 1,000 and 11%; the Census count for 2024 is lower. An earlier version of this entry cited the FBI press release of 30 September 2025 for these numbers; that page has no burglary figures.
Source date: 2025-08-01 · Accessed: 2026-10-11
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- Statistic
Motor vehicle theft rate of 258.8 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2024; estimated 19.4% decrease from 2023
“"In 2024, the estimated motor vehicle theft rate dropped 19.4% compared with the previous year. The motor vehicle theft rate was 258.8 per 100,000 inhabitants."”
Calculation notes
FBI UCR data uses a population denominator (inhabitants, not vehicles). The 258.8 per 100,000 inhabitants figure is consistent with NICB's 250.2 per 100,000 residents — the small difference reflects slightly different population estimates and reporting coverage. Both confirm the order of magnitude: roughly 850K–880K thefts in 2024. The 19.4% year-over-year drop is the largest single-year decline in four decades, following the post-pandemic theft spike driven partly by Hyundai/Kia ignition vulnerabilities.
Independence note: FBI UCR/NIBRS is an independent law-enforcement reporting pipeline. NICB data comes from insurance-industry and law-enforcement sources. Agreement on the theft total and direction of change provides strong cross-validation.
Source date: 2025-07-02 · Accessed: 2026-04-12
