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Forty-three percent of US homeowners with an adjustable-rate mortgage reported regretting their choice in a December 2022 survey of 1,203 ARM holders conducted by PureSpectrum for U.S. News & World Report, the larger and earlier-fielded of the two ARM-regret surveys cited here. The primary driver, cited by 44% of regretters, was that their interest rate had adjusted to a higher level than they anticipated. A follow-up survey by Point in January 2024, drawing on 332 ARM holders, placed the regret rate at 70%, consistent with the pattern of escalating regret as further Federal Reserve rate increases pushed variable payments well above their initial levels. By contrast, the fixed-rate regret rate — proxied from Bankrate’s 2025 general homeowner survey (n=1,363), where roughly 90% of respondents hold fixed-rate loans — runs substantially lower: approximately 12%, reflecting owners who locked in at elevated 2022-2024 rates and carry payment regret without regretting the choice of a fixed product over a variable one.
The evidence base is asymmetric. Both ARM surveys asked a direct regret question to ARM holders specifically; the fixed-rate figure is a cross-survey proxy, not a head-to-head comparison. No published study has asked matched samples of ARM and fixed-rate borrowers the same regret question in the same instrument. The direction of the asymmetry is nonetheless robust: the ARM regret rate climbed from 43% to 70% between the two survey waves as the rate environment deteriorated, while fixed-rate holders’ payment complaints remained bounded by the absence of unexpected rate changes. In the US context, the fixed-rate mortgage is the dominant default (over 90% of originations since 2010), so choosing an ARM represents an active deviation from that default — a bet that rates would stay low. Borrowers who took that bet during 2019-2022 and then faced resets into a 7%-rate environment bear the hallmarks of action regret: a counterfactual (the fixed product they passed up) that is concrete, specific, and visible in every mortgage statement.
The survey timing matters for interpretation. Both ARM surveys were fielded during or shortly after a historically rapid rate-tightening cycle (2022-2023), creating a period of maximum regret exposure. ARM regret in a falling-rate environment would likely be far lower, since resets would land at or below the initial rate rather than well above it, and fixed-rate holders might then experience their own form of regret for not capturing the lower variable rates. The 43% figure (the more conservative primary estimate) is a rate-cycle-specific snapshot, not a structural truth about the product. What is structural is the uncertainty asymmetry: fixed-rate borrowers know their payment in advance; ARM borrowers do not. That uncertainty is the proximate cause of regret in both surveys, not the product category per se.
Источники: действие
Реестр утверждений
Каждое число ниже — это то, что сообщил источник, с дословной цитатой, на которую мы опирались, и тем, как мы пришли к нашей цифре. Нажмите на ссылку, чтобы проверить самостоятельно.
[1]U.S. News & World Report / PureSpectrum — ARM Borrowers Gamble Short-Term Savings on Long-Term Risk
Первичное исследование
43% of ARM borrowers regret choosing an adjustable-rate mortgage; the most common reason was that their interest rate adjusted to a higher rate than expected (44% of regretters)
Выдержка
“"Forty-three percent of survey respondents regret choosing an ARM. Among them, the most common reason was that their interest rate adjusted to a higher rate than expected."
”
Данные источника:
2022-12-20
Дата обращения
2026-05-13
Расчёт
U.S. News & World Report commissioned PureSpectrum to conduct a nationwide online survey of 1,203 homeowners who currently hold an adjustable-rate mortgage, fielded December 14-20, 2022. Only ARM holders participated. The 43% regret rate is a direct self-report and is used here as the action-side regret rate without adjustment. The survey was conducted at the peak of the 2022 Federal Reserve tightening cycle, when the federal funds rate had risen from near-zero to 4.25-4.50% in under 12 months, so the 43% figure reflects rate-hike conditions and may understate regret relative to the longer-run reset exposure faced by 3/1 and 5/1 ARM holders who originated in 2019-2021.
[2]Point / SurveyMonkey — 70% of Homeowners with an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Regret It
Первичное исследование
70% of homeowners who have taken out an adjustable-rate mortgage in the past 10 years regret it (January 2024, n=332)
Выдержка
“"70% of homeowners who have taken out an adjustable-rate mortgage in the past 10 years regret it."
”
Данные источника:
2024-01-20
Дата обращения
2026-05-13
Расчёт
Point (a home equity investment platform) commissioned a SurveyMonkey online panel survey of 332 homeowners who obtained an ARM within the prior 10 years, fielded January 20, 2024. The 70% regret rate is the primary reported finding. The sample is smaller (332) and the platform is an industry participant with a commercial interest in home equity products, so this figure is treated as a corroborating upper-bound estimate rather than the primary rate. The primary rate used in regret_rate is 0.43 (U.S. News/PureSpectrum, n=1,203), which has a larger sample, an independent research firm, and was fielded closer to the moment of rate shock. The Point figure (70%, n=332, 13 months later) is consistent with escalating regret as further rate resets occurred through 2023.
Источники: бездействие
Реестр утверждений
Каждое число ниже — это то, что сообщил источник, с дословной цитатой, на которую мы опирались, и тем, как мы пришли к нашей цифре. Нажмите на ссылку, чтобы проверить самостоятельно.
[1]Bankrate / YouGov — Bankrate's 2025 Home Affordability Report
Первичное исследование
10% of homeowners specifically regret not getting the best mortgage rate; 16% regret that their mortgage payment is too high; nearly half (45%) of homeowners overall have at least one regret about their home purchase
Выдержка
“"Among homeowners with regrets, the most common complaints included maintenance and other hidden costs being more expensive than anticipated (42%), mortgage payment being too high (16%), and not getting the best mortgage rate (10%)."
”
Данные источника:
2025-06-01
Дата обращения
2026-05-13
Расчёт
Bankrate's 2025 Home Affordability Report surveyed 2,487 adults (1,363 current homeowners) via YouGov online panel (April 2-4, 2025), with demographic quotas for representativeness. The survey did not separately ask fixed-rate vs. ARM holders about their mortgage-type choice; it asked all homeowners about homeownership regrets broadly. The inaction-side regret rate of 0.12 is derived as follows: nearly half (45%) of homeowners report at least one regret; within that group, mortgage-rate-related items total approximately 16% (payment too high) + 10% (didn't get best rate) = 26% of regretters cite mortgage-rate issues, giving 0.45 × 0.26 ≈ 0.117 (rounded to 0.12). Because ~90% of US mortgages originated since 2010 are fixed-rate (FHFA data), the vast majority of this homeowner sample holds fixed-rate loans, so this share is used as a proxy for the fixed-rate side. This is a proxy estimate; no survey directly asks fixed-rate holders whether they regret not choosing an ARM.
[2]National Mortgage News — Adjustable-rate mortgage borrowers express regret over loans
Новостная статья
Approximately 70% of ARM holders say they now regret their choice, driven by interest-rate rises since 2022 to more than two-decade highs (Point survey, January)
Выдержка
“"Approximately 70% of ARM holders, including homeowners in both the introductory and variable-rate phase, said they now regret their choice. The rise of interest rates since 2022 to more than two-decade highs drove the sentiment, as ARM borrowers find a substantially different financial environment today versus the last 10 years."
”
Данные источника:
2024-01-20
Дата обращения
2026-05-13
Расчёт
National Mortgage News coverage of the Point (SurveyMonkey) ARM-regret survey fielded in January 2024. Reports the same headline finding as the Point source above (~70% of ARM holders regret their choice), attributing the sentiment to the 2022 onward rate rises. Used here as a second, independent outlet corroborating the elevated ARM-regret level that underpins the action-vs-inaction asymmetry. No independent new data beyond the Point survey it reports.
Оговорки
The action-side and inaction-side figures are not drawn from a single comparative survey. No published study has asked matched samples of ARM and fixed-rate borrowers the same regret question in the same survey wave. The ARM regret rate (43%) comes from a survey limited exclusively to ARM holders (U.S. News/PureSpectrum, December 2022, n=1,203); the fixed-rate regret rate (12%) is a proxy derived from a general homeowner survey (Bankrate/YouGov, April 2025, n=1,363 homeowners) that did not segment by mortgage type. Because approximately 90% of US mortgages are fixed-rate, the Bankrate sample is dominated by fixed-rate holders, making it a reasonable if imprecise comparator. Both surveys were conducted during an elevated-rate environment (2022-2025), which amplifies ARM regret and may also inflate fixed-rate payment regret among those who locked in at 6-7% in 2022-2024. The regret asymmetry is directionally robust across two independent ARM surveys with different fielding dates and samples (43% in December 2022; 70% in January 2024), but the precise delta is uncertain. In the US context, the fixed-rate mortgage is the dominant default (over 90% of originations since 2010), so choosing an ARM represents an active deviation — a bet that rates would stay low — making ARM the action side and fixed-rate the inaction side per Gilovich's framework.
