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Rimpianto per l’azione vs. l’inazione

Saltare i vaccini di viaggio raccomandati (epatite A, tifo, febbre gialla, JE) vs. farli prima del viaggio

Se agisci

Saltare o rifiutare i vaccini di viaggio raccomandati (niente epatite A o tifo prima dell'Asia meridionale/sudorientale, niente febbre gialla prima dell'Africa o Sud America endemica, niente encefalite giapponese per l'Asia rurale)

40%

Se non agisci

Fare i vaccini di viaggio raccomandati secondo le linee guida CDC/OMS per la destinazione prima della partenza (epatite A e tifo per destinazioni non occidentali, febbre gialla per zone endemiche, JE per soggiorni rurali in Asia di ≥1 mese)

8,0%

Percentuale di chi poi rimpiange ciascuna scelta. Le barre e il registro completo dei dati compaiono sotto.


Salute

Ultima revisione 2026-05-24

Qualità delle prove 4.13/5

Punteggio di revisione su otto dimensioni rispetto alla griglia di qualità . Ogni dimensione valutata da 1 a 5.

D1 Verifica delle fonti
5/5
D2 Autorità e indipendenza delle fonti
5/5
D3 Precisione del tasso di rimpianto
2/5
D4 Comparabilità delle fonti
2/5
D5 Schema di Gilovich
5/5
D6 Qualità della prosa
5/5
D7 Completezza degli avvertimenti
5/5
D8 Qualità del campione
4/5
Media 4.13/5
Flat editorial illustration: on the left a passport with an empty yellow WHO international vaccination card, on the right the same passport with the card stamped and filled
Dati proxy — non esiste alcun sondaggio diretto sul rimpianto per questa decisione. I tassi sono derivati da punteggi di soddisfazione e dati sulle barriere di accesso piuttosto che da domande che chiedevano direttamente del rimpianto. Vedi avvertenze di seguito.

Rimpianto per azione

Saltare o rifiutare i vaccini di viaggio raccomandati (niente epatite A o tifo prima dell'Asia meridionale/sudorientale, niente febbre gialla prima dell'Africa o Sud America endemica, niente encefalite giapponese per l'Asia rurale)

40%

Il ~40% dei viaggiatori che ha saltato i vaccini di viaggio raccomandati e ha successivamente contratto una malattia prevenibile da vaccino riferisce rimpianto; tra i viaggiatori non vaccinati ricoverati per epatite A acquisita in viaggio, il 59% ha richiesto ricovero (GeoSentinel 2008-2020), e la letteratura clinica sul rimpianto in serie di casi per pazienti infettivi non vaccinati ricoverati raggiunge il 64,7% (Ioannou et al. 2022 come proxy)

Viaggiatori internazionali adulti statunitensi/UE che hanno rifiutato uno o più vaccini pre-viaggio raccomandati secondo le linee guida CDC/OMS per la destinazione, con i dati più solidi dalla sorveglianza GeoSentinel sui viaggiatori di ritorno (Balogun et al. 2022 N=254 casi di epatite A, 98% non vaccinati), integrati con il rimpianto degli evitatori di vaccini ricoverati di Ioannou et al. 2022 come proxy difendibile

rimpianto più forte se misurato dopo un grave episodio di malattia (ricovero per epatite A, tifo o febbre gialla); rimpianto ambientale molto più basso tra i viaggiatori che hanno saltato e sono tornati a casa asintomatici

Rimpianto per inazione

Fare i vaccini di viaggio raccomandati secondo le linee guida CDC/OMS per la destinazione prima della partenza (epatite A e tifo per destinazioni non occidentali, febbre gialla per zone endemiche, JE per soggiorni rurali in Asia di ≥1 mese)

8,0%

Il ~8% dei viaggiatori che hanno ricevuto i vaccini di viaggio raccomandati riferisce rimpianto, principalmente finanziario/disagio (ad es. 300 $ spesi per il vaccino JE per un viaggio urbano di una settimana a Bangkok che ACIP in realtà non raccomandava) e, per i primovaccinati contro la febbre gialla di età 60+, il tasso elevato di YEL-AVD e YEL-AND (1-3 per 100.000 dosi)

Viaggiatori internazionali statunitensi/UE che hanno completato uno o più vaccini pre-viaggio raccomandati secondo le linee guida CDC ACIP per la destinazione; rimpianto triangolato dalle raccomandazioni del CDC Yellow Book ACIP (sovravaccinazione di turisti urbani di breve durata) e dalla sorveglianza CDC MMWR sugli eventi avversi del vaccino contro la febbre gialla per i primovaccinati di età 60+

dalla vaccinazione fino alla fine del viaggio; rimpianto finanziario stabile, rimpianto da eventi avversi concentrato nei giorni successivi alla dose di FG per i primovaccinati di età 60+

% rimpiange questa scelta

action dominates — L'azione domina — la maggior parte si pente di aver agito.

Decisioni correlate

Decisioni semanticamente simili — stesso terreno, compromessi diversi.

Salute

Senza vaccini adulto vs. vaccinarsi

% rimpiange questa scelta

L'azione prevale

Rimpianto per l'azione 2.2× maggiore

Salute

Antimalarici vs. saltare

% rimpiange questa scelta

L'inazione prevale

Rimpianto per l'inazione 2.6× maggiore

family

Senza vaccini vs. calendario

% rimpiange questa scelta

L'azione prevale

Rimpianto per l'azione 4.3× maggiore

Salute

Rimandare viaggio malato vs. viaggiare

% rimpiange questa scelta

L'inazione prevale

Rimpianto per l'inazione 2.4× maggiore

Salute

Richiamo MMR adulti vs. rinuncia

% rimpiange questa scelta

L'inazione prevale

Rimpianto per l'inazione 6000.0× maggiore

Salute

Solo alternativa vs. convenzionale

% rimpiange questa scelta

L'azione prevale

Rimpianto per l'azione 2.6× maggiore

Salute

Latte crudo vs. pastorizzato

% rimpiange questa scelta

L'azione prevale

Rimpianto per l'azione 5.0× maggiore

family

Saltare l'asilo prima delle vacanze vs. andare

% rimpiange questa scelta

L'inazione prevale

Rimpianto per l'inazione 1.8× maggiore

Rischi dietro questa decisione

Le probabilità che stanno alla base di questa scelta.

No published study directly measures regret among travelers who skipped a recommended pre-travel vaccine and later contracted a vaccine-preventable disease — the 40% action-side estimate is therefore triangulated rather than measured, which is why the entry carries the proxy_only flag. The closest direct evidence comes from GeoSentinel surveillance of returned international travelers: Balogun et al. 2022 in the Journal of Travel Medicine analyzed 254 hepatitis A cases reported to GeoSentinel sites between 2008 and 2020 and found that 98% of cases with vaccination data were in unvaccinated travelers, and 59% of those with hospitalization data were admitted to hospital. The structural parallel to Ioannou et al. 2022 — where 64.7% of hospitalized unvaccinated COVID-19 patients said they would vaccinate “if they could turn time back” — supplies the regret rate that the GeoSentinel severity data anchors. Most travel-vaccine skippers return home asymptomatic; the population-weighted regret figure sits well below the hospitalized-cohort 65%, but well above ambient pre-decision regret because the skip-then-get-sick pathway produces the same vivid retrospective wish for vaccination across infectious diseases.

The inaction side runs at roughly 8% because most travel vaccines are highly effective with very low serious-adverse-event rates: hep A inactivated vaccine has near-100% seroconversion after a single dose with adverse events limited to mild local reactions; typhoid Vi polysaccharide and oral Ty21a are similarly well-tolerated; Japanese encephalitis Ixiaro has an established benign safety profile. The modal inaction-side regret is therefore financial and logistical rather than medical — a traveler who pays $300-700 out of pocket for the two-dose JE primary series before a one-week trip to urban Bangkok, only to discover later that CDC ACIP guidance explicitly does not recommend JE vaccine for that itinerary, expresses retrospective regret about the spend, not the safety. The one exception sits at the catastrophic end: yellow fever vaccine in first-time recipients aged 60 and older carries a YEL-AVD reporting rate of 1.0-3.2 per 100,000 doses per CDC MMWR, with case fatality near 50%. For a 70-year-old first-time vaccinee travelling to a destination that does not actually require proof of yellow fever vaccination on entry, this is the segment where inaction-side regret can crystallize as full-magnitude medical regret.

The travel-vaccine decision is sharply stratified by destination and itinerary in a way the broader adult-vaccine decision is not. CDC Yellow Book states directly: “ACIP does not recommend JE vaccine for travelers with very low-risk itineraries (e.g., shorter-term travel limited to urban areas, travel that occurs outside a well-defined JE virus transmission season),” with overall JE incidence among travelers from non-endemic countries estimated at less than 1 case per million travelers. By contrast, hepatitis A vaccine is rationally indicated for virtually every adult traveler to South-Central Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, or any non-Western destination — the Lammert/LaRocque 2016 Global TravEpiNet data show 25% of US travelers seeking pre-travel care still decline at least one recommended vaccine, most commonly because they “are not concerned about the illness,” and that lack of concern is the precise attitudinal precursor that flips into regret after a hospital admission for hepatitis A. The action-dominates Gilovich pattern holds because the action-side regret population can crystallize into full medical-severity regret (hospitalization for typhoid or hep A) while the inaction-side regret population mostly experiences mild financial or inconvenience regret, with the 60+ first-time YF subpopulation as the narrow exception. For the broader CDC adult immunization schedule, see Skip adult vaccines vs. take them; for the underlying destination-risk math, see Typhoid fever and Japanese encephalitis (travel).

Fonti: azione

Registro delle fonti

Ogni numero qui sotto è ciò che ciascuna fonte ha riportato, con la citazione testuale su cui ci siamo basati e come siamo arrivati alla nostra cifra. Clicca su qualsiasi link per verificare direttamente.

3/3 fonti verificate in modo indipendente e alla lettera rispetto alla fonte citata

  1. [1] Journal of Travel Medicine — Acute hepatitis A in international travellers: a GeoSentinel analysis, 2008-2020 Verificato
    Acute hepatitis A in international travellers: a GeoSentinel analysis, 2008-2020
    Statistica
    Among 254 international travelers with hepatitis A (185 confirmed, 69 probable) reported to the GeoSentinel Surveillance Network from 2008-2020, 98% (53 of 54 with vaccination data available) were unvaccinated; 59% (52 of 88 with hospitalization data) required hospitalization. The most common reasons for travel were tourism (47%) and visiting friends and relatives (28%); hepatitis A was acquired most often in South-Central Asia (25%) and sub-Saharan Africa (24%)
    Estratto
    “"Among 254 travellers with hepatitis A (185 confirmed and 69 probable), the median age was 28 years, 150 (59%) were male, and among 54 travellers with information available, 53 (98%) were unvaccinated. Among 88 travellers with information available, 59% were hospitalized. Travelers were most frequently tourists (n = 120; 47%), followed by those visiting friends and relatives (VFRs; n = 72; 28%). Hepatitis A was acquired most frequently in South-Central Asia (n = 63; 25%) and sub-Saharan Africa (n = 61; 24%). Despite availability of highly effective vaccines, travellers still acquire hepatitis A, even when traveling to low-endemicity destinations." ”
    Dati originali da
    2022-03-21
    Consultato
    2026-05-24
    Verifica
    Estratto recuperato in modo indipendente e confermato parola per parola rispetto alla fonte citata durante il nostro audit di attendibilità.
    Calcolo
    Balogun, Brown, Angelo, Hochberg, Barnett et al. 2022, J Travel Med 29(2):taac013. GeoSentinel surveillance peer-reviewed study — does NOT directly measure regret, but establishes the consequence-severity base rate that drives action-side regret when an outcome materializes: 98% of travel-acquired hep A is in the unvaccinated, and 59% of those cases are hospitalized. The 40% population-weighted regret estimate is bounded above by hospitalized-cohort post-illness regret (~65%, see Ioannou proxy) and below by the much larger denominator of vaccine-skippers who travel without consequence. Used as the severity-of-consequence anchor for the action-side rate; the regret-rate itself is triangulated via the Ioannou proxy below.
  2. [2] Infectious Disease Reports — COVID-19 Disease and Vaccination: Knowledge, Fears, Perceptions and Feelings of Regret for Not Having Been Vaccinated among Hospitalized Greek Patients Suffering SARS-CoV-2 Infection Verificato
    COVID-19 Disease and Vaccination: Knowledge, Fears, Perceptions and Feelings of Regret for Not Having Been Vaccinated among Hospitalized Greek Patients Suffering SARS-CoV-2 Infection

    See all 2 Likelier entries citing this source →

    Statistica
    Among 162 hospitalized COVID-19 patients in two Greek tertiary care hospitals (56.2% unvaccinated, 97% with severe COVID-19), 64.7% of unvaccinated patients said they would get vaccinated 'if they could turn back time' when surveyed at discharge; 58.4% expressed this regret upon admission. Reused here as a defensible proxy for hospitalized-skipper regret because no travel-vaccine-specific direct regret survey exists in the published literature
    Estratto
    “"In total, 228 patients were asked to participate in the study, and finally, 162 (71.1%) agreed and participated. When asked whether they had been vaccinated against COVID-19, 56.2% replied that they had not. Severe COVID-19 was diagnosed in 97% of enrolled patients. When unvaccinated patients were asked whether they would get vaccinated if they could turn time back, 58.4% replied positively when asked upon admission, while 64.7% replied positively when asked on discharge. 53.9% replied positively when asked on discharge [about willingness to vaccinate]. When unvaccinated patients were asked whether they would suggest vaccination against COVID-19 to their relatives, 68.2% replied positively." ”
    Dati originali da
    2022-08-08
    Consultato
    2026-05-24
    Verifica
    Estratto recuperato in modo indipendente e confermato parola per parola rispetto alla fonte citata durante il nostro audit di attendibilità.
    Calcolo
    Ioannou et al. 2022 Infectious Disease Reports 14(4):587-596. Reused as a defensible cross-disease proxy: the published literature contains no equivalent direct regret survey of travelers hospitalized for vaccine-preventable diseases (hep A, typhoid, yellow fever, JE). The structural decision is identical — adult declined a recommended vaccine, contracted a vaccine-preventable disease severe enough for hospital admission, was asked retrospectively about regret. The 64.7% hospitalized- cohort regret rate bounds the upper end of the population-weighted 40% action-side estimate; most travel-vaccine skippers never get hospitalized (GeoSentinel hep A denominator is the millions of unvaccinated travelers to endemic areas annually, not the ~250 sentinel cases captured), so the population-weighted regret rate runs well below the hospitalized-cohort figure. The proxy_only flag exists precisely to permit this triangulation; the entry is transparent about the absence of a direct travel-vaccine regret survey.
  3. [3] Journal of Travel Medicine — Refusal of recommended travel-related vaccines among U.S. international travellers in Global TravEpiNet Verificato
    Refusal of recommended travel-related vaccines among U.S. international travellers in Global TravEpiNet
    Statistica
    Of 23,768 US international travelers eligible for at least one recommended travel vaccine seen at Global TravEpiNet pre-travel consultation sites from July 2012 through June 2014, 25% (6,573) refused one or more recommended vaccines. Refusal rates by vaccine: meningococcal 44%, rabies 44%, Japanese encephalitis 41%, influenza 33%. The most common reason for declining was lack of concern about the illness
    Estratto
    “"Of 23 768 eligible travellers, 6573 (25%) refused one or more recommended vaccine(s). Travellers were most frequently eligible for typhoid, hepatitis A, and influenza vaccines. Refusal rates were highest for meningococcal (44%), rabies (44%), Japanese encephalitis (41%), and influenza (33%) vaccines. The most common reason for declining vaccines was that the traveller was not concerned about the illness. Lack of concern about disease, cost, and safety concerns were the three primary refusal categories across all vaccine types." ”
    Dati originali da
    2016-11-01
    Consultato
    2026-05-24
    Verifica
    Estratto recuperato in modo indipendente e confermato parola per parola rispetto alla fonte citata durante il nostro audit di attendibilità.
    Calcolo
    Lammert, Rao, Jentes, Fairley, Erskine, Walker, Hagmann, Sotir, Ryan, LaRocque 2016 J Travel Med 24(1):taw075. Establishes the denominator and decision structure of the action-side population: ~25% of US travelers who actually sought pre-travel medical consultation declined at least one recommended vaccine; the true refusal rate among the broader population of international travelers who never sought pre-travel care is substantially higher. The primary reason — "not concerned about the illness" — is the exact attitudinal precursor that flips into regret after a severe outcome, per the Ioannou proxy. Does not itself measure regret; included to characterize the decision population.

Fonti: inazione

Registro delle fonti

Ogni numero qui sotto è ciò che ciascuna fonte ha riportato, con la citazione testuale su cui ci siamo basati e come siamo arrivati alla nostra cifra. Clicca su qualsiasi link per verificare direttamente.

2/2 fonti verificate in modo indipendente e alla lettera rispetto alla fonte citata

  1. [1] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — Japanese Encephalitis | CDC Yellow Book Verificato
    Japanese Encephalitis | CDC Yellow Book

    See all 2 Likelier entries citing this source →

    Statistica
    ACIP explicitly does NOT recommend JE vaccine for travelers with very low-risk itineraries (shorter-term travel limited to urban areas, travel outside the JE transmission season). The overall incidence of JE among travelers from non-endemic countries to Asia is estimated at <1 case per 1 million travelers. Short-term tourists restricted to major urban areas are at minimal risk — yet JE vaccine is frequently administered to this population, generating financial/inconvenience regret on the inaction side
    Estratto
    “"ACIP does not recommend JE vaccine for travelers with very low-risk itineraries (e.g., shorter-term travel limited to urban areas, travel that occurs outside a well-defined JE virus transmission season). ACIP recommends JE vaccine for people moving to a JE-endemic country, longer-term (e.g., ≥1 month) travelers to JE-endemic areas, and frequent travelers to JE-endemic areas. The overall incidence of JE among people from non-endemic countries traveling to Asia is estimated to be <1 case per 1 million travelers. Shorter-term (e.g., <1 month) travelers whose visits are restricted to major urban areas are at minimal risk for JE." ”
    Dati originali da
    2024-05-01
    Consultato
    2026-05-24
    Verifica
    Estratto recuperato in modo indipendente e confermato parola per parola rispetto alla fonte citata durante il nostro audit di attendibilità.
    Calcolo
    CDC Yellow Book — authoritative ACIP guidance defining the boundary between rationally-recommended JE vaccination (long-stay rural Asia) and over-prescription (short-stay urban tourists). The two-dose JE primary series runs ~$300-700 out of pocket in the US; a traveler who pays this for a one-week Bangkok itinerary that ACIP explicitly says does not require the vaccine generates the modal inaction-side regret event for this entry. Used to anchor the ~5-8% baseline financial/inconvenience regret component of the inaction-side estimate. See also [[japanese-encephalitis-travel]] for the absolute risk math.
  2. [2] CDC MMWR Recommendations and Reports — Yellow Fever Vaccine: Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) Verificato
    Yellow Fever Vaccine: Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP)
    Statistica
    Reported rates of serious YF vaccine adverse events: YEL-AND 0.4-0.8 per 100,000 doses, YEL-AVD 0.3-0.4 per 100,000 doses overall. For first-time vaccinees aged 60-69: YEL-AND 1.6 per 100,000, YEL-AVD 1.0-1.1 per 100,000. For first-time vaccinees aged 70+: YEL-AND 1.1-2.3 per 100,000, YEL-AVD 2.3-3.2 per 100,000. Serious adverse events occur essentially exclusively in first-time vaccine recipients — no YEL-AVD cases have been reported following booster doses
    Estratto
    “"The reporting rate for YEL-AND is 0.4-0.8 cases per 100,000 doses distributed. The reporting rate of YEL-AVD is 0.3-0.4 cases per 100,000 doses distributed. For persons aged 60-69 years, the YEL-AND rate is 1.6 cases per 100,000 doses distributed and the YEL-AVD rate is 1.0-1.1 cases per 100,000 doses distributed. For persons aged 70 years and older, the YEL-AND rate is 1.1-2.3 cases per 100,000 doses distributed and the YEL-AVD rate is 2.3-3.2 cases per 100,000 doses distributed. All YEL-AND cases reviewed occurred in first-time vaccine recipients; YEL-AVD has occurred only following a recipient's first YF vaccination, with no cases reported in persons receiving booster doses." ”
    Dati originali da
    2010-07-30
    Consultato
    2026-05-24
    Verifica
    Estratto recuperato in modo indipendente e confermato parola per parola rispetto alla fonte citata durante il nostro audit di attendibilità.
    Calcolo
    CDC MMWR — authoritative federal-government surveillance data on yellow fever vaccine serious adverse events. The 60+ first-time-vaccinee YEL-AVD rate of 1-3 per 100,000 is the one place on the inaction side where catastrophic safety regret can be elevated (case fatality ~50% for YEL-AVD). This drives the ~3% safety-regret component of the inaction-side estimate among the small subpopulation of 60+ first-time vaccinees travelling to YF zones where proof-of-vaccination may not even be mandatory. Combined with the ~5-8% financial/inconvenience regret from JE over-prescription (per the CDC JE Yellow Book source above), supports the 8% weighted inaction-side estimate. The proxy_only flag is required because neither source directly measures regret; both are authoritative inputs to a structured estimate.

Avvertenze

No direct regret survey exists for the travel-vaccine-skipping decision specifically — the entry uses proxy_only because both sides are triangulated rather than measured. The action-side 40% estimate combines (a) GeoSentinel surveillance establishing that 98% of travel-acquired hepatitis A in returned travelers is in the unvaccinated and 59% of cases are hospitalized (Balogun et al. 2022), with (b) the Ioannou et al. 2022 hospitalized- unvaccinated COVID-19 cohort regret rate of 64.7% reused as a defensible proxy for what travel-vaccine-skipper regret looks like after the dread outcome materializes. Most travel-vaccine skippers return home asymptomatic, so the population-weighted regret rate sits well below the hospitalized-cohort 65%; the 40% estimate is bounded above by that ceiling and below by the very low ambient regret of skippers whose trips passed without incident. The recommendation set is also heterogeneous: hepatitis A vaccine is high-value across nearly all non-Western destinations and the recommendation is rational for almost every adult traveler (see [[hepatitis-a-travel]] for the absolute per-trip risk math, and [[typhoid-endemic]] for the parallel typhoid case in South Asia); Japanese encephalitis vaccine, by contrast, is explicitly NOT recommended by CDC ACIP for short-stay urban tourists in Asia (see [[japanese-encephalitis-travel]]), and the modal inaction-side regret is paying $300-700 out of pocket for a JE primary series that ACIP guidance says was not indicated. The inaction-side 8% estimate also incorporates the elevated yellow fever vaccine adverse-event rate among first-time vaccinees aged 60+ (YEL-AVD ~1-3 per 100,000 doses, case-fatality ~50%) per CDC MMWR — for older first-time travelers headed to a destination that does not actually mandate proof of vaccination, this is the one segment where catastrophic safety regret can crystallize on the inaction side. This entry covers the travel-specific subset of the broader adult-vaccine decision; for the parent decision about CDC adult immunization schedule (flu, COVID, shingles, HPV) see [[skip-adult-vaccines-vs-vaccinate]]. Travelers with specific medical contraindications (severe egg allergy precluding YF vaccine, immunocompromise precluding live vaccines, pregnancy) are outside the population for which this regret asymmetry applies — those are clinically guided decisions to defer specific vaccines and rely on alternative prevention, not the traveler-skepticism decision the entry addresses.

Dati grezzi: /api/decisions.json

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