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行動 vs. 不行動の後悔

民間医療保険に加入するか、公的医療制度に頼るか

行動した場合

私費で民間医療を受ける

3.0%

行動しなかった場合

公的医療(NHS)のみに頼る

5.0%

それぞれの選択を後で後悔した人の割合。バーと完全な記録は下に表示されます。


健康

最終確認 2026-05-01

証拠の質 4.5/5

8次元のレビュー評価。基準は 品質ルーブリック 。各次元は1〜5で評価。

D1 出典の検証
5/5
D2 出典の権威性と独立性
4/5
D3 後悔率の正確性
2/5
D4 出典の比較可能性
5/5
D5 ギロヴィッチ・パターン
5/5
D6 文章の質
5/5
D7 注意事項の完全性
5/5
D8 サンプルの質
5/5
平均 4.5/5
Two waiting rooms side by side, one small and quiet, one large and crowded.

行動への後悔

私費で民間医療を受ける

3.0%

私立病院患者の約3%がケアを推奨しない

英国私立病院入院患者(PHIN報告病院、Circle Health Group 38病院)、2025年1-12月の患者アンケートn=86,772

2025年1-12月、PHIN公表ローリング

不作為への後悔

公的医療(NHS)のみに頼る

5.0%

NHS入院患者の約5%がケアを推奨しない(FFT 2016-19)

NHSイングランド入院患者、128非専門急性期プロバイダー、2016年4月-2019年3月(各トラストで年間推定150万件以上のFFT回答)

2016年4月-2019年3月(プロバイダーレベルパネル)

この選択を後悔した割合

balanced — ほぼ均衡 — どちらの選択も同程度の後悔を伴います。

関連する決断

意味的に類似する決断 — 同じ領域、異なるトレードオフ。

健康

セラピーあり・なし

この選択を後悔した割合

均衡

ほぼ均衡

金融

医療費の交渉

この選択を後悔した割合

不作為が優勢

不作為の後悔が7.6倍高い

健康

美容整形

この選択を後悔した割合

均衡

ほぼ均衡

健康

リスク低減乳房切除 対 監視

この選択を後悔した割合

均衡

ほぼ均衡

健康

植毛手術

この選択を後悔した割合

不作為が優勢

不作為の後悔が5.0倍高い

career

私立大学 vs 公立大学

この選択を後悔した割合

均衡

ほぼ均衡

健康

精管切除術

この選択を後悔した割合

均衡

ほぼ均衡

健康

ブラジリアン・バット・リフト(BBL)

この選択を後悔した割合

均衡

ほぼ均衡

Private hospital patients and NHS inpatients report near-identical recommendation rates when measured with a recommend-based instrument. Circle Health Group — the UK’s largest independent hospital group — reports that 97.9% of patients (n=86,772 questionnaires, Jan-Dec 2025) would be likely or extremely likely to recommend their consultant. Inverting gives roughly 3% who would not recommend. That is a single provider’s self-reported figure, not a national private-sector aggregate, so treat it as illustrative rather than definitive. On the NHS side, Borrelli et al. (2024) analyzed provider-level FFT data for 128 non-specialist acute trusts (April 2016 to March 2019) and found approximately 95.5% of inpatient responses were positive, giving roughly 5% who would not recommend. The 2-percentage-point gap falls within the balanced zone of the Gilovich pattern.

The large NHS dissatisfaction numbers circulating in public debate — 21% BSA satisfaction in 2024, 59% dissatisfied — do not translate into a bilateral inaction-dominates regret pattern. Those surveys measure general public attitudes toward the NHS as a system, asking all adults including those who have had no recent inpatient episode. The IHPN Going Private 2025 survey (n=2,011, Public First) shows 88% of private care users say it was value for money. But these two figures are not directly comparable: one surveys a general population on institutional sentiment, the other surveys self-selected recent private users on a cost-satisfaction question. When a recommend-based measure is applied to both populations in comparable inpatient contexts, the gap narrows to roughly 2 percentage points, though the private figure is a single provider’s “recommend your consultant” self-report rather than the identical NHS “recommend this ward” FFT item, so the comparison is indicative rather than like-for-like. UK private medical insurance market growth (ABI 2024: 6.5 million insured, up from 6.2M in 2023) is consistent with incremental demand for supplemental care, not evidence of mass regret about NHS reliance.

The entry’s geographic and temporal limits bear stating directly. The NHS FFT inpatient data runs only to March 2019; the CQC Adult Inpatient Survey 2024 (more than 62,000 NHS patients across 131 trusts, 52.1% rating experience 9-10/10) suggests in-treatment quality has not deteriorated, though waiting times remain a structural pressure. In Germany, Finanztip (n=3,337, March 2025) found 27% of PKV private insurance holders would not re-choose private insurance, reflecting premium escalation and exit-trap effects in a dual-mandate system. Australia lost approximately 1.3 million hospital cover holders from the 2015 peak by 2019 as premium unaffordability drove behavioral exit. Both signals demonstrate that in market structures with cost pressure and lock-in, private healthcare regret becomes measurable. The balanced bilateral signal observed in the UK context is specific to its supplemental-care model and current premium levels.

出典: 行動

根拠台帳

以下の各数値は各出典が報告した内容であり、引用した原文の抜粋と算出方法を記載しています。リンクをクリックして直接確認できます。

1/2 件の出典が引用元と一字一句一致することを独立して検証済み

  1. [1] Circle Health Group — About Circle Health Group — latest Patient Satisfaction scores
    About Circle Health Group — latest Patient Satisfaction scores
    統計値
    97.9% of Circle Health Group patients would be likely or extremely likely to recommend their consultant; 96.9% rated overall service good/very good; 95.8% rated nursing care very good/excellent (n=86,772 questionnaires, Jan–Dec 2025)
    抜粋
    “"97.9% patients would be likely or extremely likely to recommend their consultant to their friends or family... *During the period of January to December 2025, Circle Health Group received 86772 questionnaires from patients admitted for treatment." ”
    出典データ
    2026-03-05
    アクセス日
    2026-07-12 · アーカイブ版
    計算過程
    Self-reported provider satisfaction data from Circle Health Group's own "About Us" page (the UK's largest independent hospital group, 54 hospitals). 97.9% would recommend their consultant = 2.1% would not recommend, rounded up to 3% as the action-side regret proxy. This is a "would not recommend" proxy from a single self-reporting provider, not a direct regret measure and not a national private- sector aggregate; treat as illustrative of the private-inpatient range, corroborated by the IHPN value-for-money figure below. Provider self-report source — non-authoritative; the IHPN survey is the authoritative corroborator on this side. Figures verified against the archived page (Wayback, 2026-03-05).
  2. [2] Independent Healthcare Provider Network (IHPN) / Public First — Going Private 2025: Headline Findings 検証済み
    Going Private 2025: Headline Findings
    統計値
    88% of people who have accessed private healthcare say it was value for money
    抜粋
    “"Patient satisfaction remains very high with 88% of people who have accessed private healthcare — both through insurance and via self-pay — saying it was value for money." ”
    出典データ
    2025-01-01
    アクセス日
    2026-05-01
    検証
    グラウンディング監査の際、抜粋を引用元から独立して再取得し、原文と一字一句一致することを確認しました。
    計算過程
    IHPN-commissioned Public First survey of 2,011 nationally representative GB adults. This is a broader "value for money" satisfaction proxy (D3=3), corroborating the Circle Health Group recommendation-based estimate. The 12% "not worth it" figure is likely higher than the 3% "would not recommend" because it includes cost-relative dissatisfaction, not just care quality. IHPN represents private healthcare providers; interpret with awareness of commissioner bias.

出典: 不作為

根拠台帳

以下の各数値は各出典が報告した内容であり、引用した原文の抜粋と算出方法を記載しています。リンクをクリックして直接確認できます。

  1. [1] Health Services Management Research (SAGE) — How does staff and patient feedback on hospital quality relate to mortality outcomes? A provider-level national study
    How does staff and patient feedback on hospital quality relate to mortality outcomes? A provider-level national study
    統計値
    ~95.5% of NHS inpatient FFT responses were positive (extremely likely or likely to recommend); the remaining ~4.5% were neutral, negative, or extremely unlikely
    抜粋
    “"Provider level FFT responses were obtained for 128 English non-specialist acute providers for staff and inpatients between April 2016 and March 2019." ”
    出典データ
    2024-05-01
    アクセス日
    2026-05-02
    計算過程
    Large-scale analysis of NHS England FFT administrative data for inpatient wards, April 2016 – March 2019, covering 128 non-specialist acute providers. Approximately 95.5% positive rate (extremely likely or likely to recommend) -> 4.5% not positive. NHS England's own 2019 implementation guidance states "at least nine out of ten patients respond positively." Rounded to 5% for the inaction-side regret proxy to be consistent with rounding approach on action side. PMC mirror: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11041065/ Construct limitation: "would not recommend this ward" does not equal "regret relying on NHS rather than going private."
  2. [2] Care Quality Commission — CQC Adult Inpatient Survey 2024
    CQC Adult Inpatient Survey 2024
    統計値
    52.1% of NHS inpatients rated their overall experience 9-10 out of 10 in 2024 (n more than 62,000 across 131 acute and specialist NHS trusts)
    抜粋
    “"The Adult Inpatient Survey 2024 asked patients about their experiences of inpatient care in NHS acute trusts in England." ”
    出典データ
    2024-12-01
    アクセス日
    2026-05-02
    計算過程
    CQC Adult Inpatient Survey 2024, more than 62,000 NHS patients across 131 acute and specialist NHS trusts. The 52.1% rating experience 9-10/10 measures experience quality directionally; different question from FFT and included here as corroboration only, not as the primary regret proxy. Up from 50.8% in 2023, suggesting in-treatment experience has not declined despite system-level dissatisfaction.

注意事項

Both sides use "would not recommend" as a proxy for regret, a weaker construct than direct re-choice intent or stated regret. Both sides also rest on a recommend-based question, but not the identical instrument: the private figure is Circle Health Group's self-reported "recommend your consultant" score, while the NHS figure is the FFT "recommend this ward" item — a broadly comparable but not like-for-like measure, and part of why the bilateral gap is narrow. The private figure is also a single provider's self-report, not a national private-sector aggregate. The NHS FFT data is from 2016-19; NHS inpatient experience has changed since (CQC 2024: 52% rate 9-10/10, up from 50.8% in 2023, suggesting in-treatment experience has not collapsed despite system-level dissatisfaction). UK private medical insurance market is growing (+4-7% per year; ABI 2024: 6.5 million insured, up from 6.2M in 2023), and behavioral evidence does not strongly support an inaction-dominates framing; if NHS users broadly regretted not going private, market growth would be steeper and cancellation rates would be visible. The large NHS system satisfaction gap (21% BSA 2024 vs 88% IHPN private "worth it") conflates two incomparable populations: BSA surveys all adults including those who have not recently been NHS inpatients; IHPN surveys past private users only. Germany Finanztip (n=3,337, March 2025): 27% of PKV private insurance holders would not re-choose private insurance, showing geography matters significantly; in dual systems with exit traps and premium escalation, private healthcare regret is real and measurable but structurally different from the UK supplemental context. Australia behavioral signal: net loss of approximately 1.3 million hospital cover holders from the 2015 peak (approximately 47.4% to approximately 43.7% population coverage by 2019), driven primarily by premium unaffordability, suggesting the balanced bilateral signal is cost-contingent. UK scope: entry is primarily UK-applicable; US framing is different (no universal baseline); German and Australian systems have structurally different private/public divides. Temporal gap risk: NHS waiting times have worsened since 2016-19; if current FFT data were available, the inaction-side "would not recommend" rate may be higher than 5%, potentially widening the gap and shifting the pattern toward inaction_dominates.

生データ: /api/decisions.json

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