Een langdurige zorgverzekering afsluiten in de vijftig vs. zelfverzekering en vertrouwen op vermogen of Medicaid

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1/3 bronnen onafhankelijk woordelijk geverifieerd tegenover de geciteerde bron

1. [1] Center for Retirement Research at Boston College (Hou, Sun & Webb, Issue in Brief 15-17) — Why Do People Lapse Their Long-Term Care Insurance? Geverifieerd Gerenommeerde referentie

   Why Do People Lapse Their Long-Term Care Insurance?

   Statistiek

   More than one quarter (~25%+) of people who buy long-term care insurance at age 65 lapse their policy before death, forfeiting all benefits; about one in four policyholders who eventually enter a nursing home had lapsed within the previous four years

   Fragment

   “"More than one quarter of those who buy long-term care insurance at age 65 will let their policies lapse at some point, forfeiting all benefits." The Center for Retirement Research further reports that "about one in four older people with a policy who eventually go into a nursing home had let that policy lapse sometime in the previous four years" -- forfeiting coverage that would have paid for their care. The brief identifies financial hardship (low wealth and income) and cognitive impairment as the main drivers of lapse, and finds that those who lapse are more likely to subsequently use care, i.e., they lose coverage precisely when they need it most. ”

   Brongegevens van

   2015-10-01

   Geraadpleegd

   2026-06-30

   Verificatie

   Fragment onafhankelijk opnieuw opgehaald en woord voor woord bevestigd tegenover de geciteerde bron tijdens onze onderbouwingsaudit.

   Berekening

   Source replaced 2026-06-30: the prior AALTCI citation could not support the 25% lapse figure (AALTCI publishes ~95% annual persistency as a success story and the specific "25% in 10 years" claim was not directly citable). The Center for Retirement Research at Boston College (Hou, Sun & Webb, "Why Do People Lapse Their Long-Term Care Insurance?", Issue in Brief 15-17, based on Health and Retirement Study data) directly states that "more than one quarter of those who buy long-term care insurance at age 65 will let their policies lapse at some point, forfeiting all benefits." This is the verbatim basis for the action-side regret_rate of 0.25: lapse = premiums paid for no benefit. The display is the lapse construct (a financial-harm proxy), not a direct "do you regret buying" survey; proxy_only is set true.

2. [2] CareScout (formerly Genworth Financial Cost of Care Survey) — Cost of Long Term Care by State — CareScout Cost of Care Report Primaire studie

   Cost of Long Term Care by State — CareScout Cost of Care Report

   Statistiek

   2025 national median nursing home cost: $9,581-$10,798/month; assisted living $6,200/month; non-medical caregiver services $35/hour

   Fragment

   “[Genworth's Cost of Care data migrated to CareScout; original Genworth URL redirects to carescout.com as of 2026-05-14.] CareScout (the successor to Genworth's Cost of Care survey) reports 2025 national median costs for long-term care: private nursing home rooms at approximately $9,581-$10,798 per month; assisted living at $6,200 per month; and non-medical caregiver services at $35 per hour. These figures represent the scale of the financial risk that the inaction (self-insure) path bears. The 2023 equivalent was approximately $108,408 per year ($9,034/month) for a private nursing home room, as widely reported in 2023 LTC planning sources. ”

   Brongegevens van

   2025-01-01

   Geraadpleegd

   2026-05-14

   Berekening

   URL corrected 2026-05-14: Genworth's Cost of Care survey has migrated to CareScout (carescout.com); the original Genworth URL redirects there with a 301. The CareScout page loads successfully and contains current LTC cost data. The $108,408/year figure cited in the original entry was the 2023 Genworth figure; the 2025 CareScout data shows slightly higher costs (~$9,581-$10,798/month). This source establishes the financial scale of the inaction path's risk (the cost a self-insurer must absorb) and does not independently supply either side's regret rate.

3. [3] US Department of Health and Human Services, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation (ASPE) — Exiting the Market: Understanding the Factors behind Carriers' Decision to Leave the Long-Term Care Insurance Market Overheidsrapport

   Exiting the Market: Understanding the Factors behind Carriers' Decision to Leave the Long-Term Care Insurance Market

   Statistiek

   Of 102 companies selling LTC insurance policies in 2002, most had exited the market by 2009; carriers cited underpriced legacy assumptions (voluntary lapse rates that turned out far lower than priced, falling interest rates, and worse-than-expected morbidity) as the main drivers of exit

   Fragment

   “"In 2002, there were 102 companies selling policies[;] by 2009, most of these companies had exited the market." Contributing causes included that "voluntary lapse rates priced into initial policies were much higher than what they ultimately turned out to be," declining investment yields ("between 1992 and 2002, yields on Corporate Bonds were typically above 6.5% whereas in 2003, they began a precipitous decline such that by 2010, they had fallen to below 5%"), and morbidity that "was worse than expected" for about half of surveyed carriers. ”

   Brongegevens van

   2013-06-30

   Geraadpleegd

   2026-07-03

   Berekening

   HHS/ASPE analysis of LTC insurer exit decisions. Added to ground the body-prose claim "the traditional LTC insurance market has contracted sharply as major insurers exited after severe losses from underpriced legacy products," previously stated without a supporting frontmatter source. Same government department (HHS) as the ACL source below but a distinct sub-agency report on insurer-side market history rather than consumer-side care needs; does not itself supply either side's regret rate.

Elk getal hieronder is wat elke bron rapporteerde, met het letterlijke citaat waarop we ons baseerden en hoe we tot ons cijfer kwamen. Klik op een link om rechtstreeks te verifiëren.

1/2 bronnen onafhankelijk woordelijk geverifieerd tegenover de geciteerde bron

1. [1] US Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Community Living — How Much Care Will You Need? Overheidsrapport

   How Much Care Will You Need?

   Statistiek

   Someone turning 65 today has almost a 70% chance of needing some type of long-term care; 20% will need it for longer than 5 years; average use of any services is about 3 years

   Fragment

   “"Someone turning age 65 today has almost a 70% chance of needing some type of long-term care services and supports in their remaining years. Women need care longer (3.7 years) than men (2.2 years). One-third of today's 65 year-olds may never need long-term care support, but 20 percent will need it for longer than 5 years." The accompanying distribution table reports that, on average, people who use any long-term care services use them for about 3 years (69% use some services over their remaining life). ”

   Brongegevens van

   2020-02-18

   Geraadpleegd

   2026-06-30 · gearchiveerde kopie

   Berekening

   Excerpt and statistic corrected 2026-06-30. The prior version quoted a sentence ("44% exhaust their personal assets... within the first 2 years") that does NOT appear on this ACL page and could not be attributed to ACL -- it was removed as fabricated. The live ACL URL returns 403 to automated fetchers; the verbatim text above was confirmed against the Wayback capture (archive_url, 2024-12-30). This govt_report establishes the magnitude of the inaction-side exposure: ~70% of 65-year-olds will need long-term care and 20% will need it more than 5 years -- i.e., a large majority face the cost the self-insure path must absorb. It does not by itself supply the spend-down regret rate; that comes from the JAMA Network Open source below.

2. [2] JAMA Network Open (Aboulafia, Chen & Grabowski), December 2025 — Asset Spend-Down and Medicaid Enrollment in Nursing Homes Geverifieerd Vakgenoten-beoordeeld

   Asset Spend-Down and Medicaid Enrollment in Nursing Homes

   Statistiek

   Among nursing home residents who entered without Medicaid (n=126,626), 16.4% spent down their assets onto Medicaid (mean 6.1 months); among those who remained 4 years, 61.8% had spent down to Medicaid

   Fragment

   “"Of those who were initially non-Medicaid enrolled, 16.4% (20 773 of 126 626) spent down their assets and became Medicaid enrolled" and "the mean (SD) time until spend-down was approximately 6.1 (7.9) months." Among residents who initially entered without Medicaid and remained in a facility, "by 4 years, 61.8% (2871 of 4644) had done so." The cohort followed 191,416 residents with traditional Medicare who newly entered nursing homes in 2018, through 2022. ”

   Brongegevens van

   2025-12-04

   Geraadpleegd

   2026-06-30

   Verificatie

   Fragment onafhankelijk opnieuw opgehaald en woord voor woord bevestigd tegenover de geciteerde bron tijdens onze onderbouwingsaudit.

   Berekening

   Source replaced 2026-06-30. The prior LIMRA "2024 Insurance Barometer Study" citation was fabricated: that study is about life-insurance understanding and contains no "44% wished they had purchased LTC insurance earlier" figure (no LIMRA abstract or secondary coverage reports it). It was removed. This peer-reviewed JAMA Network Open cohort study (Aboulafia, Chen & Grabowski, 191,416 residents, 2018-2022) supplies the honest inaction-side harm proxy: among self-payers who entered nursing care without Medicaid and remained 4 years (i.e., those with genuine extended LTC need -- the population this side describes), 61.8% spent down all assets onto Medicaid. The inaction regret_rate is set to 0.62 (the verbatim 61.8% four-year figure), replacing the manufactured 0.44 convergence. This is a financial-harm proxy (asset exhaustion), not a direct regret survey; proxy_only is true.