In een land blijven nadat je visum is verlopen vs. op tijd vertrekken
Als je handelt
Blijven nadat het visum is verlopen (overstay)
44%
Als je niets doet
Op tijd vertrekken (voldoen aan de visumvoorwaarden)
9,0%
Percentage dat later spijt heeft van elke keuze. De balken en het volledige overzicht staan hieronder.
Levensstijl
Laatst beoordeeld 2026-05-09
Kwaliteit van bewijs 3.88/5
Beoordelingsscore op acht dimensies volgens de
kwaliteitsrubriek
. Elke dimensie krijgt een score van 1 tot 5.
D1 Bronverificatie
5/5
D2 Autoriteit en onafhankelijkheid van bronnen
4/5
D3 Nauwkeurigheid van spijtcijfer
1/5
D4 Vergelijkbaarheid van bronnen
2/5
D5 Gilovich-patroon
5/5
D6 Prozakwaliteit
5/5
D7 Volledigheid van voorbehouden
5/5
D8 Steekproefkwaliteit
4/5
Gemiddelde3.88/5
Proxygegevens — er bestaat geen directe spijtenquête voor deze beslissing. De percentages zijn afgeleid van tevredenheidsscores en toegangsdrempelgegevens in plaats van vragen die direct naar spijt vroegen. Zie opmerkingen hieronder.
Spijt van handelen
Blijven nadat het visum is verlopen (overstay)
44%
~44% zou-het-opnieuw-doen-proxy (GEEN overschrijdingsspecifieke spijt): 56% van de waarschijnlijk ongedocumenteerde immigranten zegt nog steeds voor verhuizing naar de VS te kiezen als ze terug in de tijd konden gaan (gedaald van 72% in 2023), dus 44% zou dat niet doen — een meting van immigratiespijt onder de verhoogde handhaving van 2025, geen spijt over het specifiek overschrijden van een visum
Waarschijnlijk onverdocumenteerde immigranten in de Verenigde Staten (inclusief visumoverschrijdingen)
retrospectieve enquête, augustus–oktober 2025
Spijt van nalaten
Op tijd vertrekken (voldoen aan de visumvoorwaarden)
9,0%
~35% gemodelleerde proxy (er bestaat geen directe enquête): afgeleid uit onderzoek naar terugkeermigratie, waarin ruwweg een derde van de terugkeerders hun terugkeer als onvrijwillig of betreurd beschrijft, gecombineerd met de KFF-bevinding dat 70% van de immigranten zegt nog steeds naar de VS te zullen verhuizen. Geen enkele enquête meet spijt onder mensen die de VS daadwerkelijk verlieten bij het verlopen van hun visum
Buitenlanders die de VS verlieten bij visumvervaldatum en wensten dat ze hadden kunnen blijven
retrospectieve proxy, 2025
% betreurt deze keuze
Blijven nadat het visum is verlopen (overstay)Op tijd vertrekken (voldoen aan de visumvoorwaarden)
44%9,0%
action dominates — Handelen domineert — de meesten hebben spijt dat ze handelden.
Gerelateerde keuzes
Semantisch vergelijkbare keuzes — zelfde terrein, andere afwegingen.
Vluchten uit het conflictgebiedIn het conflictgebied blijven
13%47%
Niet-handelen overheerst
Spijt over niet-handelen 3.6× hoger
The KFF/New York Times 2025 Survey of Immigrants (n = 1,805, conducted August
to October 2025) found that 56% of likely undocumented immigrants in the US
say they would still choose to come to America if they could go back in time,
down from 72% in 2023. The remaining 44% is not a clean regret figure: the
survey question offers three options (would still move, would not, not sure),
and for the full sample the “would not” answer (9%) is dwarfed by “not sure”
(21%) — but KFF does not publish that breakdown for the likely-undocumented
subgroup specifically, so 44% can only be read as an upper bound on regret for
this population, not a validated rate. On the inaction side, no survey asks
people who actually left the US on visa expiration whether they regret it.
The best available proxy uses the same survey’s directly reported finding for
all immigrants: 70% say they would still choose to move to the US, 9% say
they would not, and 21% are not sure — so 9%, not the 30-point “non-yes”
share, is the defensible stand-in for people who watched others build lives,
careers, and families in the US while they departed on schedule. Read this
way, the two proxies may be further apart than a first glance suggests,
though the action-side ceiling of 44% is soft enough that the true gap
cannot be pinned down precisely: the underlying “would still move” figure for
likely undocumented immigrants alone swung from 72% in 2023 to 56% in 2025 as
enforcement intensified.
The mechanism on each side is structurally different. Overstayers who develop
regret are generally responding to chronic enforcement anxiety: 75% of likely
undocumented immigrants in the KFF survey report worrying about detention or
deportation, 77% report negative health impacts from those worries, and 74%
have avoided ordinary activities such as work or medical care. These costs are
ongoing and compounding. The person who left on time bears a one-time
opportunity cost, which may grow over time as they observe the lives built
by those who stayed — a classic Gilovich inaction pattern — but does not
experience the chronic psychological burden of enforcement fear. The tradeoff
is between acute daily anxiety and long-term opportunity loss, which is a
categorically different comparison than most decisions in this dataset.
Both figures carry significant uncertainty and are sensitive to enforcement
context. The underlying “would still move” rate for likely undocumented
immigrants was 72% in 2023 and fell to 56% in 2025 — a 16-point drop tied to
a specific political and enforcement environment — but KFF has not published
how much of that 16-point shift moved into “would not” versus “not sure” for
this subgroup, so the corresponding regret ceilings (28% in 2023, 44% in
2025) should not be read as measured regret rates for either year. The
inaction-side rate (9%) has a firmer anchor: it is the source’s own directly
reported “would not” figure for all immigrants surveyed, not a derived
complement, though it still answers a general immigration-satisfaction
question rather than a departure-specific one. Nationality matters
enormously: the relevant regret calculus for
a Mexican national who overstays and builds a family near the border differs
fundamentally from an Indian H-1B holder who ages out of status or a European
tourist who simply delayed departure by a few weeks. This entry describes
aggregate patterns and should not be read as evidence about any specific
nationality, visa category, or enforcement policy.
Bronnen: handelen
Bronnenverantwoording
Elk getal hieronder is wat elke bron rapporteerde, met het letterlijke citaat waarop we ons baseerden en hoe we tot ons cijfer kwamen. Klik op een link om rechtstreeks te verifiëren.
[1]Kaiser Family Foundation / New York Times — KFF/New York Times 2025 Survey of Immigrants: Worries and Experiences Amid Increased Immigration Enforcement↗ 1 other entry
Primaire studie
75% of likely undocumented immigrants worry about detention or deportation; 77% report negative health impacts from immigration-related worries; 56% say they would still move to the US if they could go back in time (down from 72% in 2023); the source's full-sample breakdown of the same question shows non-yes answers split 9% would-not / 21% not-sure, but does not publish that split for the undocumented subgroup, so the 44% non-yes share for this subgroup is an upper bound on regret, not a validated rate
Fragment
“"Four in ten (41%) immigrants say they personally worry they or a family member could be detained or deported, with worries most pronounced among likely undocumented immigrants (75%). Nearly eight in ten (77%) likely undocumented immigrants say they have experienced negative health impacts due to immigration-related worries. 56 percent of likely undocumented immigrants say they would still choose to move to the United States if they could go back in time, down from 72 percent in 2023."
”
Brongegevens van
2025-11-01
Geraadpleegd
2026-05-09
Berekening
KFF/NYT survey conducted August 28 – October 20, 2025, n = 1,805 immigrant adults, nationally representative probability-based sample, with oversampling of likely undocumented immigrants (n ~300-400 subgroup). CORRECTED 2026-07: the prior version of this entry used the complement of the "would still move" rate (100% minus 56% = 44%) and called that "implied regret." This is an invalid derivation: the underlying survey question (Q12, "If you could go back in time knowing what you know now, would you choose to move to the U.S.?") is a three-option item — would still move / would not / not sure — not binary, and the source's own full-sample breakdown shows the non-"yes" share splits into 9% would-not and 21% not-sure (of the 30-point gap for all immigrants surveyed): "One in ten (9%) say they would not choose to move to the U.S. if they could go back in time, and one in five (21%) say they are not sure." Most of the "non-yes" share is uncertainty, not dissent. No breakdown of would-not vs. not-sure is published for the likely-undocumented subgroup specifically, so there is no way to compute a validated regret-only figure for this side. The 44% figure is retained ONLY as an upper bound (the ceiling on how high true regret could be, since at most 44% of this subgroup did not say "yes"), not as a point estimate of regret; the true would-not share for this subgroup is unknown and, by analogy with the full-sample pattern, plausibly well below 44%. CONSTRUCT CAVEAT: this measures views about IMMIGRATING (a would-do-again forced choice), not regret of OVERSTAYING a visa specifically; the survey does not ask about overstaying, nor does it ask whether respondents left after visa expiry. It is the closest available retrospective measure for this population, but the two constructs are not identical, and even the raw "would still move" rate is enforcement-era sensitive (72% in 2023 vs 56% in 2025 among likely undocumented immigrants). The 75% deportation worry and 77% negative health impact figures document the chronic cost of the overstay decision but are not themselves regret measures. The survey was conducted during a period of heightened enforcement (Trump second term), which may depress the "would still move" rate relative to baseline years.
[2]US Department of Homeland Security / US Customs and Border Protection — Entry/Exit Overstay Report, Fiscal Year 2023
Overheidsrapport
FY2023 suspected in-country overstay rate: 1.02% of 39 million expected departures; 399,708 suspected in-country overstays
Fragment
“"By May 1, 2024, the number of Suspected In-Country Overstays for FY 2023 decreased to 399,708, resulting in a Suspected In-Country Overstay rate of 1.02 percent of the 39,005,712 expected departures. For non-Visa Waiver Program countries (excluding Canada and Mexico), the FY 2024 Suspected In-Country Overstay rate is 2.22 percent."
”
Brongegevens van
2024-10-01
Geraadpleegd
2026-05-09
Berekening
DHS Entry/Exit Overstay Report FY2023. Used here to establish the scale of the overstay population (hundreds of thousands annually) and the enforcement context. The overstay report does not contain regret data; it establishes that overstays constitute a large share of the undocumented population (estimates suggest over 40% of total undocumented population). Used as the corroborating government source establishing the decision context, not the regret proxy.
Bronnen: niet handelen
Bronnenverantwoording
Elk getal hieronder is wat elke bron rapporteerde, met het letterlijke citaat waarop we ons baseerden en hoe we tot ons cijfer kwamen. Klik op een link om rechtstreeks te verifiëren.
[1]Kaiser Family Foundation / New York Times — KFF/New York Times 2025 Survey of Immigrants: Worries and Experiences Amid Increased Immigration Enforcement↗ 1 other entry
Primaire studie
Among all immigrants surveyed, large majorities say key aspects of their lives are better as a result of moving to the US (educational opportunities 74%, financial situation 70%, employment 65%); on whether they would still choose to move to the US if they could go back in time, 70% say yes, 9% say no, and 21% are not sure — the 9% figure is the source's directly reported would-not rate, not a derived complement
Fragment
“"About two-thirds or more immigrants say the educational opportunities for themselves or their children (74%), their financial situation (70%), and their employment situation (65%) are better as a result of moving to the U.S. Seven in ten (70%) immigrants say they would still choose to move to the U.S. One in ten (9%) say they would not choose to move to the U.S. if they could go back in time, and one in five (21%) say they are not sure. This share dropped 16 percentage points among likely undocumented immigrants (from 72% to 56%)."
”
Brongegevens van
2025-11-01
Geraadpleegd
2026-05-09
Berekening
The inaction regret proxy (those who left on time but wish they had stayed) is the hardest side to anchor empirically. No published survey specifically asks people who left the US upon visa expiration whether they regret having done so, and this survey's own sample is drawn entirely from immigrants currently living in the US, so it cannot include anyone who left. CORRECTED 2026-07: the prior version of this entry used a complement construction (100% minus the 70% who say they would still move) to derive a 30% "would not" rate. This was an invalid derivation: Q12 of the same survey is a three-option question (would still move / would not / not sure), and the source directly reports the breakdown for all immigrants: 70% would still move, 9% would not, and 21% are not sure. Treating the full 30-point non-"yes" share as regret wrongly folded 21 points of genuine uncertainty into the 9-point "would not" figure. The 0.09 rate now used is the source's own directly-reported "would not" statistic, not a derived complement. This remains a weaker anchor than the action side on two counts: it measures people who stayed rather than people who left, and it answers a general relocation question rather than an overstay- or departure-specific one. It should be read as a rough directional estimate only, not a measured inaction-side regret rate.
[2]Pew Research Center — What we know about unauthorized immigrants living in the U.S.
Gerenommeerde referentie
The US unauthorized immigrant population grew to 11.0 million in 2022, with 8.3 million in the workforce — a large, economically embedded population, establishing the scale and pull factor against which a leave-on-time decision is weighed
Fragment
“"The unauthorized immigrant population in the United States grew to 11.0 million in 2022, according to new Pew Research Center estimates based on the 2022 American Community Survey. The number of unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. workforce grew from 7.4 million in 2019 to 8.3 million in 2022."
”
Brongegevens van
2024-07-22
Geraadpleegd
2026-05-09
Berekening
Pew Research Center overview of the unauthorized immigrant population. Used here only to establish the scale of the population and economic embeddedness (11.0 million people, 8.3 million in the workforce in 2022) that constitutes the pull factor against which a leave-on-time decision is weighed. This article does NOT measure regret, residence duration, or visa-overstay share, so it cannot anchor an inaction regret rate — it is context only. The 0.09 inaction figure is the KFF/NYT survey's own directly-reported all-immigrants would-not-move again rate (see the KFF/NYT source notes above; corrected 2026-07 from an earlier, invalid complement construction), not a measured rate for people who left specifically, and should be read as a directional estimate only.
Kanttekeningen
PROXYMETINGEN AAN BEIDE KANTEN — de regret_delta van 0.09 valt binnen de onzekerheidsmarge voor beide proxy's en mag niet worden behandeld als een betekenisvol verschil. De proxy aan de actiekant (0.44) is afgeleid uit de KFF/NYT-enquête 2025: het complement van "zou nog steeds naar de VS verhuizen" onder waarschijnlijk ongedocumenteerde immigranten. Dit werd gemeten tijdens een periode van ongewoon hoge handhavingsdruk (tweede ambtstermijn Trump), en dezelfde vraag leverde in 2023 28% impliciete spijt op — een stijging van 16 procentpunten in twee jaar. Het basispercentage van actiespijt (buiten de handhavingspiek) ligt waarschijnlijk dichter bij 0.25-0.30. De proxy aan de inactiekant (0.35) is een conservatieve afleiding uit de literatuur over terugkeermigratie en de sterke aanhoudende aantrekkingsfactor van economische kansen in de VS; het heeft geen direct enquête-anker en draagt brede onzekerheid. De twee populaties zijn structureel onvergelijkbaar: de actiekant is gemeten onder mensen die momenteel in de VS zijn, die ervoor kozen te overschrijden en handhavingsdruk ervaren, terwijl de inactiekant is geschat uit de populatie van mensen die vertrokken en voor wie geen systematische enquête bestaat. Het concept "overschrijden versus vertrekken" is voor de meeste mensen ook niet één afzonderlijke beslissing: overschrijdingen stapelen zich vaak geleidelijk op naarmate mensen hun vertrek week na week uitstellen als reactie op veranderende omstandigheden, waardoor een retrospectieve spijtinterpretatie minder zuiver is dan bij andere beslissingen in deze dataset. Nationaliteit speelt een grote rol: overschrijdingspercentages en economische motieven verschillen enorm per land van herkomst, waarbij Mexicaanse, Midden-Amerikaanse en Zuid-Aziatische overschrijdingsdynamiek aanzienlijk verschilt van die van Europese of Oost-Aziatische visumhouders. Het item mag niet worden aangehaald als bewijs voor enig specifiek standpunt over immigratiehandhavingsbeleid; het beschrijft ervaren uitkomsten en geuite voorkeuren, geen normatieve aanbevelingen.
