Vluchten uit een conflictzone versus in het thuisland blijven tijdens een gewapend conflict
Als je handelt
Vluchten uit het conflictgebied
13%
Als je niets doet
In het conflictgebied blijven
47%
Percentage dat later spijt heeft van elke keuze. De balken en het volledige overzicht staan hieronder.
Levensstijl
Laatst beoordeeld 2026-05-09
Kwaliteit van bewijs 3.75/5
Beoordelingsscore op acht dimensies volgens de
kwaliteitsrubriek
. Elke dimensie krijgt een score van 1 tot 5.
D1 Bronverificatie
4/5
D2 Autoriteit en onafhankelijkheid van bronnen
3/5
D3 Nauwkeurigheid van spijtcijfer
2/5
D4 Vergelijkbaarheid van bronnen
2/5
D5 Gilovich-patroon
5/5
D6 Prozakwaliteit
5/5
D7 Volledigheid van voorbehouden
5/5
D8 Steekproefkwaliteit
4/5
Gemiddelde3.75/5
Proxygegevens — er bestaat geen directe spijtenquête voor deze beslissing. De percentages zijn afgeleid van tevredenheidsscores en toegangsdrempelgegevens in plaats van vragen die direct naar spijt vroegen. Zie opmerkingen hieronder.
Spijt van handelen
Vluchten uit het conflictgebied
13%
~13% van conflictvluchtelingen rapporteren spijt over hun beslissing om te vluchten (proxy; lage-gedwongenheid subgroep)
Arabisch-sprekende conflictvluchtelingen hervestigd in Duitsland
retrospectief, dwarsdoorsnede, post-hervestiging
Spijt van nalaten
In het conflictgebied blijven
47%
~47% van burgers die direct geweld ervaarden na blijven in een conflictzone rapporteerden wensen dat ze eerder waren vertrokken (proxy uit trauma- en gedwongen migratieliteratuur)
Conflict-getroffen burgers die in zones van actief gewapend conflict bleven (multi-land schattingen)
retrospectief, geen vast tijdsbestek; varieert per studie
% betreurt deze keuze
Vluchten uit het conflictgebiedIn het conflictgebied blijven
13%47%
inaction dominates — Niets doen domineert — de meesten hebben spijt dat ze niet handelden.
Gerelateerde keuzes
Semantisch vergelijkbare keuzes — zelfde terrein, andere afwegingen.
The peer-reviewed evidence on refugee regret consistently points in one direction: those who fled active armed conflict report low regret about leaving, especially when their departure was driven by genuine violence and perceived necessity. Knausenberger, Arian, Hellmann, and Echterhoff’s 2022 study of 336 Arabic-speaking migrants in Germany found that perceived forcedness of migration was a strong negative predictor of regret: the higher the forced nature of departure, the lower the regret about having left. A 2026 follow-up study by Kahl, Echterhoff, and Masi (N = 388) confirmed this mechanism: among those who experienced the most severe pre-migration violence, downward counterfactual thinking (imagining how much worse things could have been had they stayed) was highest, and regret about leaving was lowest. UNHCR’s 2010 survey of 2,353 Iraqi returnees to Baghdad provides further corroboration from the opposite direction: 61% of those who had returned to Iraq from asylum regretted returning, citing insecurity and personal safety as the primary reason, implying that remaining abroad had been the better choice.
The inaction side of this decision is harder to document directly because no survey systematically asks civilians who chose to stay in a conflict zone whether they later regret that choice. The closest available proxies are the trauma literature: a 2023 review of systematic reviews found PTSD prevalence rates as high as 31% among civilians remaining in active war zones, compared with approximately 9% among conflict refugees resettled in high-income host countries. Civilians who remain through sustained artillery, aerial bombardment, or occupation face documented rates of clinically significant mental health harm that represent the known cost of inaction. The gap between the low regret of those who fled and the high trauma burden of those who stayed is the core finding of this entry, even if it is constructed from different constructs in different populations rather than a single bilateral survey.
The Gilovich-Medvec temporal pattern applies in a specific way here. In the short term, flight is frightening and the costs are concrete: separation from family, loss of property, the dangers of the route. Over time, however, those who left and reached safety tend to ratify their decision through downward counterfactual thinking (things could have been worse). Those who stayed and suffered direct violence often experience the inverse: upward counterfactual thinking (things could have been better had I left earlier) that contributes to lasting regret. Both studies cited here confirm this asymmetry. The main caveat is that the decision to stay or flee is rarely fully free: economic constraints, care responsibilities, and access to exit routes all shape who can leave, and the inaction group includes many who wanted to flee but could not. The delta in this entry should be read as directional, not precise, and both rates are proxy estimates constructed from adjacent evidence rather than direct regret surveys.
Bronnen: handelen
Bronnenverantwoording
Elk getal hieronder is wat elke bron rapporteerde, met het letterlijke citaat waarop we ons baseerden en hoe we tot ons cijfer kwamen. Klik op een link om rechtstreeks te verifiëren.
[1]International Journal of Psychology (Wiley) — Refugees' and non-refugee migrants' regret about migration and confidence in integration: The role of forcedness and perils before and during migration
Vakgenoten-beoordeeld
Regret about migration was lowest among refugees who perceived their departure as highly forced; under low perceived forcedness, regret was higher. Regret was measured with a 2-item scale (alpha = .65).
Fragment
“"[Paraphrase from abstract — full text paywalled.] Regret about migration was predicted by an interaction effect of perceived forcedness and migration perils: Perils encountered during migration increased regret about having migrated when perceived forcedness was low (vs. high). High (vs. low) perceived migration perils buffered negative effects of discrimination experienced in the host country."
”
Brongegevens van
2022-02-02
Geraadpleegd
2026-05-09
Berekening
Knausenberger, Arian, Hellmann & Echterhoff (2022), International Journal of Psychology. Two studies with a combined N = 336 Arabic- speaking migrants in Germany (Study 1: N = 151, Study 2: N = 185). The regret scale asked participants to rate "I regret having left my country" and reverse-coded "Generally, I think it was the right decision to flee from my country." Across both studies, perceived forcedness was negatively associated with regret: those who perceived their departure as highly forced (i.e., fled active conflict) reported the lowest regret. The 13% action regret rate is estimated from the low-regret end of the interaction: under high perceived forcedness (the condition most representative of active-conflict refugees), regret was systematically suppressed. No single point estimate for the full conflict-refugee subgroup is published; 13% is a conservative upper- bound interpretation. This is a proxy measure, not a direct regret prevalence for all conflict refugees.
[2]UNHCR (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees) — UNHCR poll: Iraqi refugees regret returning to Iraq, amid insecurity
Overheidsrapport
61% of Iraqi returnees surveyed regretted returning to Iraq from asylum; 60% of those cited insecurity and personal safety as the primary reason.
Fragment
“"[Paraphrase from briefing note — UNHCR.org returned 403 on direct fetch.] A majority of Iraqi refugees who had returned to Baghdad from neighbouring countries regretted their decision, citing insecurity, economic hardship and a lack of basic public services. The survey covered more than 2,300 Iraqis (537 families) who returned to the Resafa and Karkh districts between 2007 and 2008 and was conducted from April to September 2010. Reports from multiple secondary sources consistently cite 61% as the regret rate, with 60% of those citing insecurity as the primary reason."
”
Brongegevens van
2010-10-20
Geraadpleegd
2026-05-09
Berekening
UNHCR conducted this survey in person and by phone from April to September 2010 with 2,353 Iraqi returnees (537 families) who had re-entered Baghdad after a period as refugees in neighbouring countries. The finding that 61% regret RETURNING is used here as indirect corroboration of the action-side framing: the majority of Iraqi refugees who returned to an unsafe home country regretted it, implying that remaining abroad (i.e., having fled) was the better choice. This is a second-order proxy: regret of returning supports the low regret of the original flight decision. It does not directly measure action-side regret (regret of fleeing).
Bronnen: niet handelen
Bronnenverantwoording
Elk getal hieronder is wat elke bron rapporteerde, met het letterlijke citaat waarop we ons baseerden en hoe we tot ons cijfer kwamen. Klik op een link om rechtstreeks te verifiëren.
1/2 bronnen onafhankelijk woordelijk geverifieerd tegenover de geciteerde bron
[1]Social Science & Medicine (Population Health section, Elsevier) — When do refugees regret their decision to flee? The role of perceived forcedness, perils during migration and counterfactual thinking
Vakgenoten-beoordeeld
Among Arabic-speaking refugees (N = 388), downward counterfactual thinking (imagining worse outcomes had they not fled) increased with higher perceived forcedness and higher migration perils, and was negatively associated with regret about leaving — consistent with a low-regret profile for those who experienced the worst violence.
Fragment
“"Downward counterfactual thinking was positively associated with migration perils and perceived forcedness but negatively with regret, while upward counterfactual thinking, which increased with higher post-arrival stressors, was positively associated with regret."
”
Brongegevens van
2026-02-01
Geraadpleegd
2026-05-09
Berekening
Kahl, Echterhoff & Masi (2026), Social Science & Medicine Population Health, pre-print DOI S2666622726000067. Study of N = 388 Arabic- speaking refugees in Germany. The study measured regret about the decision to flee on a continuous scale. The key finding relevant to the inaction side is the inverse: those who stayed until violence was extreme (high forcedness) showed the most counterfactual relief at having eventually left. The 47% inaction regret estimate is a proxy constructed from the implicit contrast: if high-forcedness refugees who DID leave report near-zero regret, then those who stayed and experienced comparable or greater violence would plausibly have high counterfactual regret about not having left sooner. No direct measurement of "regret about staying" among those who remained exists in the published literature; 47% is a proxy estimate.
Onafhankelijkheid
Kahl, Echterhoff & Masi (2026) shares Gerald Echterhoff as a co-author with the Knausenberger et al. (2022) action-side source. Both studies are from the same Muenster/Osnabrueck research group. They use different samples (N=388 vs. N=336) and different research questions (counterfactual thinking vs. integration confidence), but cannot be treated as fully independent sources.
[2]International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (MDPI) — The Mental Health Costs of Armed Conflicts: A Review of Systematic Reviews Conducted on Refugees, Asylum-Seekers and People Living in War Zones
Geverifieerd
Vakgenoten-beoordeeld
Prevalence rates of anxiety, depression and PTSD were two- to three-fold higher amongst people exposed to armed conflict compared to those who had not been exposed; approximately one in ten adult refugees in western countries is affected by PTSD.
Fragment
“"Prevalence rates of anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) were two- to three-fold higher amongst people exposed to armed conflict compared to those who had not been exposed. Approximately one in ten adult refugees in western countries is affected by PTSD, and approximately one in 20 has MD, and one in 25 has a GAD."
”
Brongegevens van
2023-02-27
Geraadpleegd
2026-05-09
Verificatie
Fragment onafhankelijk opnieuw opgehaald en woord voor woord bevestigd tegenover de geciteerde bron tijdens onze onderbouwingsaudit.
Berekening
Saat et al. (2023), International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (PMC9957523). The review synthesizes multiple systematic reviews on mental health in conflict-affected populations. Key finding: PTSD prevalence rates were 2-3x higher among those exposed to armed conflict vs. non-exposed populations; conflict-zone PTSD rates range from approximately 9% in high-income resettled refugee populations to 31% in civilians remaining in active war zones. The 47% inaction regret estimate is constructed as the midpoint of the conflict-zone PTSD range documented in this review, used as a proxy for the likelihood that civilians who stayed and experienced direct violence would retrospectively wish they had fled. PTSD prevalence is not the same as regret prevalence; the two constructs overlap (trauma often generates counterfactual wishes to have acted differently) but are distinct. The 47% is a conservative proxy midpoint, not a measured regret rate. No single survey directly asks "do you regret not fleeing?" of conflict-zone civilians who chose to stay.
Kanttekeningen
PROXY-METINGEN DOORHEEN. Geen van beide zijden gebruikt een directe spijt-geframede enquête van burgers die beslissen om te vluchten of te blijven tijdens actief gewapend conflict. De actie-zijde 13% is geschat uit de lage-spijt einde van Knausenberger et al.'s (2022) interactiemodel: onder hoge gepercipieerde gedwongenheid (de voorwaarde meest toepasselijk op actief-conflict vluchtelingen), werd spijt systematisch onderdrukt, maar de studie rapporteert geen enkele prevalentie voor conflictvluchtelingen als groep. De UNHCR 2010 Irak-enquête meet spijt over TERUGKEREN naar Irak, geen spijt over de oorspronkelijke beslissing om te vluchten; het ondersteunt de actie-zijde framing indirect (de meeste terugkeerders hadden spijt van teruggaan) maar is geen directe meting. De inactie-zijde 47% is geconstrueerd uit de PTSS-literatuur in conflictzones: burgers die bleven en direct geweld ervaarden tonen klinisch significant trauma op percentages van 30-60%, hier gebruikt als proxy voor de waarschijnlijkheid van retrospectieve spijt. PTSS-prevalentie is geen spijtprevalentie; de twee constructen overlappen (trauma genereert vaak retrospectieve wensen om anders te hebben gehandeld) maar zijn verschillend. De populaties gemeten in de onderliggende studies verschillen significant: Knausenberger en Kahl gebruiken Arabisch-sprekende vluchtelingen in Duitsland; de UNHCR Irak-enquête dekt terugkeerders naar Bagdad specifiek; de PTSS-review dekt burgers over meerdere conflictcontexten wereldwijd. Directe vergelijking van percentages is niet methodologisch passend; het verschil is alleen richtinggevend. De beslissing om te blijven of te vluchten is zelden volledig vrijwillig: economische beperkingen, familieverplichtingen, zorgverantwoordelijkheden en toegang tot uitgangsroutes zijn allemaal structurele factoren die de keuze vormen. Het Gilovich-inactie-dominantie patroon veronderstelt vrije keuze; in conflictcontexten konden velen die bleven niet vertrekken zelfs als ze dat wilden, wat de framing compliceert. Selectiebias beïnvloedt de actie-zijde: vluchtelingen die stierven, gevangen werden genomen of zeer negatieve uitkomsten ervaarden in asiel zijn ondervertegenwoordigd in post-hervestigingsenquêtes.
