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Regret d’agir vs. de ne pas agir

Donner à un adolescent un accès supervisé à l'alcool vs. une interdiction stricte

Si vous agissez

Accès supervisé/encadré à l'alcool

36%

Si vous n’agissez pas

Interdiction stricte (pas d'alcool fourni par les parents)

21%

Pourcentage de personnes qui regrettent ensuite chaque choix. Les barres et le registre complet s’affichent ci-dessous.


Famille

Dernière révision 2026-05-22

Qualité des preuves 4.5/5

Score d’évaluation en huit dimensions selon la grille de qualité . Chaque dimension notée de 1 à 5.

D1 Vérification des sources
5/5
D2 Autorité et indépendance des sources
5/5
D3 Précision du taux de regret
2/5
D4 Comparabilité des sources
4/5
D5 Motif de Gilovich
5/5
D6 Qualité de la prose
5/5
D7 Complétude des réserves
5/5
D8 Qualité de l’échantillon
5/5
Moyenne 4.5/5
A wine glass with a small pour on the left and a locked cabinet on the right
Données de substitution — aucune enquête directe sur les regrets n'existe pour cette décision. Les taux sont dérivés des scores de satisfaction et des obstacles d'accès plutôt que de questions portant directement sur les regrets. Voir les mises en garde ci-dessous.

Regret d'action

Accès supervisé/encadré à l'alcool

36%

36% des adolescents ayant un accès supervisé par des adultes à l'alcool ont subi des conséquences alcooliques nocives en 9e année (proxy de regret parental basé sur le préjudice à l'enfant)

Élèves du secondaire à Victoria, Australie (contexte de norme permissive), suivis dès la 7e année

cohorte prospective de 3 ans ; classes 7-9 (âges ~12-15)

Regret d'inaction

Interdiction stricte (pas d'alcool fourni par les parents)

21%

21% des adolescents dans un contexte de politique de prohibition stricte (État de Washington) ont subi des conséquences alcooliques nocives en 9e année (proxy de résultat de préjudice)

Élèves du secondaire dans l'État de Washington (contexte de norme prohibitionniste), suivis dès la 7e année

cohorte prospective de 3 ans ; classes 7-9 (âges ~12-15)

% regrettent ce choix

action dominates — L'action domine — la plupart regrettent d'avoir agi.

Décisions associées

Décisions sémantiquement similaires — même terrain, compromis différents.

family

Liberté vs surprotection

% regrettent ce choix

L'action domine

Regret d'action 2.3× plus élevé

family

Adoption vs élever soi-même

% regrettent ce choix

L'action domine

Regret d'action 4.8× plus élevé

familyDirecte

Accès de l'enfant aux réseaux sociaux

% regrettent ce choix

L'action domine

Regret d'action 5.4× plus élevé

family

Avoir des enfants

% regrettent ce choix

Équilibré

À peu près équilibré

family

Timing de l'éducation sexuelle

% regrettent ce choix

L'inaction domine

Regret d'inaction 3.5× plus élevé

family

Discipline vs permissivité

% regrettent ce choix

L'inaction domine

Regret d'inaction 2.4× plus élevé

family

Discipline dure vs douce

% regrettent ce choix

L'action domine

Regret d'action 1.2× plus élevé

family

Privé vs public

% regrettent ce choix

L'inaction domine

Regret d'inaction 3.2× plus élevé

The intuition behind supervised teen drinking is plausible on its surface: introducing alcohol at home, in controlled amounts, might satisfy curiosity and teach moderation before peer pressure enters the picture. The data from three decades of prospective cohort research does not support this narrative. The Australian Parental Supply of Alcohol Longitudinal Study (APSALS), which followed 1,927 families from grades 7 through 12, found that adolescents who received alcohol exclusively from their parents had 2.58 times the odds of binge drinking, 2.53 times the odds of alcohol-related harm, and 2.51 times the odds of alcohol use disorder symptoms compared to adolescents who received no alcohol from any source (Mattick et al., Lancet Public Health, 2018). Critically, those supplied only by parents were twice as likely to begin accessing alcohol from other sources the following year — the supervised exposure did not contain the behaviour, it accelerated it.

The cross-jurisdictional comparison by Smolkowski and colleagues (2011) is particularly useful for this decision frame because it provides directly comparable child-harm rates across two policy environments that map onto parental approaches. In Victoria, Australia — where supervised home drinking was normative and two-thirds of students reported it by grade 8 — 36% of students experienced harmful alcohol consequences by grade 9. In Washington State, where zero-tolerance norms prevailed and only 35% reported supervised drinking, the rate was 21%. The gap is not merely cultural: the same study found that adult-supervised drinking settings were associated with higher harmful-consequence rates within both populations. A meta-analysis pooling 7 prospective studies across Sweden, the USA, the Netherlands, and Australia found a pooled odds ratio of 2.00 (95% CI 1.72–2.32) for risky drinking among adolescents supplied alcohol by parents versus those not supplied (Mattick et al., IJERPH, 2017).

Under Gilovich and Medvec’s temporal regret framework, actions generate more intense short-term regret when their consequences materialise quickly — and parental alcohol supply consequences tend to appear within one to three years. The action-dominates pattern is consistent with the evidence: parents who gave supervised access and watched their child develop problem drinking have a clear counterfactual (I could have said no) that is cognitively vivid. Parents who maintained strict prohibition and worry their child drinks covertly face a murkier counterfactual. The proxy gap between 36% and 21% represents a 15-point differential in immediate child harm, not a direct bilateral regret survey. Both sides carry real uncertainty: a minority of prohibition-context adolescents become drinkers anyway, and a minority of supervised-access adolescents show no problem trajectory. The evidence does not justify categorical certainty in either direction — it justifies noting that, on average, the supervised-access route produced more measurable harm.

Sources : action

Registre des sources

Chaque chiffre ci-dessous correspond à ce que la source a rapporté, avec la citation textuelle sur laquelle nous nous sommes appuyés et la méthode de calcul. Cliquez sur un lien pour vérifier directement.

2/3 sources vérifiées de manière indépendante, mot pour mot, par rapport à la source citée

  1. [1] Prevention Science (PMC) — Influence of Family Factors and Supervised Alcohol Use on Adolescent Alcohol Use and Harms: Similarities Between Youth in Different Alcohol Policy Contexts Vérifié
    Influence of Family Factors and Supervised Alcohol Use on Adolescent Alcohol Use and Harms: Similarities Between Youth in Different Alcohol Policy Contexts
    Statistique
    36% of Victoria (supervised-drinking context) students experienced any harmful alcohol consequence by grade 9; adult-supervised settings for alcohol use were associated with higher levels of harmful alcohol consequences
    Extrait
    “"Adult-supervised settings for alcohol use were associated with higher levels of harmful alcohol consequences," contrary to harm-minimization policy predictions. The relationship between supervised drinking and increased harms held true across both jurisdictions. ”
    Données source de
    2011-04-19
    Consulté le
    2026-05-22
    Vérification
    Extrait récupéré et confirmé de manière indépendante, mot pour mot, par rapport à la source citée lors de notre audit de vérification.
    Calcul
    Smolkowski et al. (2011), Prevention Science 12(3):250–263. Prospective cohort of 1,945 grade-7 students (989 females) from Washington State and Victoria, Australia; analysis sample 1,888. Victoria students—where parental supervised drinking was normative and common (66% reported supervised drinking by grade 8)—experienced a 36% rate of harmful alcohol consequences by grade 9. This covers eight harms: blackouts, injuries, loss of control, and violent behaviour. Used here as the action-side regret proxy: parental decision to allow supervised access is judged by whether the child suffered measurable alcohol-related harm within 3 years. No large-scale survey directly asks parents whether they regret giving supervised access.
  2. [2] The Lancet Public Health — Association of parental supply of alcohol with adolescent drinking, alcohol-related harms, and alcohol use disorder symptoms: a prospective cohort study
    Association of parental supply of alcohol with adolescent drinking, alcohol-related harms, and alcohol use disorder symptoms: a prospective cohort study
    Statistique
    Adolescents receiving alcohol exclusively from parents had OR 2.58 (95% CI 1.96–3.41) for binge drinking, OR 2.53 (1.99–3.24) for alcohol-related harm, and OR 2.51 (1.46–4.29) for AUD symptoms vs no supply
    Extrait
    “"Providing alcohol to children is associated with alcohol-related harms" with no protective effect demonstrated. Parental supply only was associated with significantly elevated odds of binge drinking (OR 2.58), alcohol-related harm (OR 2.53), and alcohol use disorder symptoms (OR 2.51) compared to no supply from any source. ”
    Données source de
    2018-02-01
    Consulté le
    2026-05-22
    Calcul
    Mattick et al. (2018), Lancet Public Health 3(2):e64–e71. APSALS cohort, n=1,927 families, grades 7–12, Sydney/Perth/Hobart, 2010–2016. Adjusted odds ratios compare parental-supply-only group vs no-supply group controlling for multiple confounders. These ORs corroborate the Smolkowski harm-rate figure as the primary proxy. The OR 2.53 for alcohol-related harm among parental-supply recipients is directionally consistent with the 36% vs 21% raw rates across jurisdictions in Smolkowski.
  3. [3] UNSW Sydney / National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre — The Lancet Public Health: Parental provision of alcohol to teenagers does not reduce risks, compared to no supply Vérifié
    The Lancet Public Health: Parental provision of alcohol to teenagers does not reduce risks, compared to no supply
    Statistique
    Teenagers supplied alcohol by only their parents in one year were twice as likely to access alcohol from other sources (e.g. friends) the following year, compared with teenagers given no alcohol at all.
    Extrait
    “"Importantly, teenagers supplied with alcohol by only their parents one year were twice as likely to access alcohol from other sources the next year." ”
    Données source de
    2018-01-01
    Consulté le
    2026-07-03
    Vérification
    Extrait récupéré et confirmé de manière indépendante, mot pour mot, par rapport à la source citée lors de notre audit de vérification.
    Calcul
    UNSW/NDARC media release accompanying the Mattick et al. (2018) Lancet Public Health APSALS paper cited directly above (same cohort, n=1,927 families). Confirms the body-text "cross-over" claim: parental-only supply in a given year predicted a higher rate of subsequently sourcing alcohol from non-parental channels the following year — i.e. supervised access did not substitute for or delay access via other sources.

Sources : inaction

Registre des sources

Chaque chiffre ci-dessous correspond à ce que la source a rapporté, avec la citation textuelle sur laquelle nous nous sommes appuyés et la méthode de calcul. Cliquez sur un lien pour vérifier directement.

  1. [1] Prevention Science (PMC) — Influence of Family Factors and Supervised Alcohol Use on Adolescent Alcohol Use and Harms: Similarities Between Youth in Different Alcohol Policy Contexts
    Influence of Family Factors and Supervised Alcohol Use on Adolescent Alcohol Use and Harms: Similarities Between Youth in Different Alcohol Policy Contexts
    Statistique
    21% of Washington State (prohibition context) students experienced any harmful alcohol consequence by grade 9; lower than the 36% rate in the Victoria (supervised drinking) context
    Extrait
    “"Adult-supervised settings for alcohol use were associated with higher levels of harmful alcohol consequences," contrary to harm-minimization policy predictions. Washington State students—in a zero-tolerance context—experienced 21% harmful consequences vs Victoria's 36%. ”
    Données source de
    2011-04-19
    Consulté le
    2026-05-22
    Calcul
    Same Smolkowski et al. (2011) cohort, Washington State subsample (n=874 of 1,888 total). Washington State enforces strict zero-tolerance underage alcohol laws; parental supervised drinking was reported by only 35% of students by grade 8 vs 66% in Victoria. The 21% harm rate in the prohibition-norm context is the inaction-side proxy: parents who maintained prohibition saw lower rates of immediate alcohol-related harm in their children.
  2. [2] International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (PMC) — Parental Supply of Alcohol in Childhood and Risky Drinking in Adolescence: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
    Parental Supply of Alcohol in Childhood and Risky Drinking in Adolescence: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
    Statistique
    Pooled OR 2.00 (95% CI 1.72–2.32): parental supply of alcohol associated with twice the odds of subsequent risky drinking across 7 prospective studies
    Extrait
    “"Parental supply of alcohol in childhood is associated with an increased likelihood of risky drinking later in adolescence." Pooled OR 2.00 (95% CI 1.72–2.32) across 6 studies with 8 effect estimates from Sweden, USA, Netherlands, Australia. ”
    Données source de
    2017-03-01
    Consulté le
    2026-05-22
    Calcul
    Mattick et al. (2017), Int J Environ Res Public Health 14(3):287. Meta-analysis of 7 prospective longitudinal studies (6 in the pooled OR), sample sizes 428–2,625. The pooled OR 2.00 supports the no-supply (prohibition) inaction side as having roughly half the downstream risky drinking risk. The review notes methodological heterogeneity and cautious causal inference, consistent with the proxy-only framing of this entry.

Réserves

Les deux côtés utilisent les taux de préjudice à l'enfant comme proxies pour le regret parental, et non des enquêtes directes demandant aux parents s'ils regrettent leur décision concernant l'approvisionnement en alcool. Aucune étude à grande échelle n'a suivi prospectivement le regret rapporté par les parents concernant l'accès supervisé versus interdit. Les échantillons de Victoria (proxy d'action) et de l'État de Washington (proxy d'inaction) proviennent d'environnements culturels et politiques différents, donc la comparaison 36% vs 21% reflète partiellement le contexte politique plutôt que la seule décision parentale. Les rapports de cotes de Mattick et al. (2018) APSALS, et le RC méta-analytique de Mattick et al. (2017) de 2,00, corroborent la direction de l'effet mais ne sont pas des mesures de regret parental. Toutes les études sont observationnelles ; un facteur de confusion résiduel par la culture familiale de consommation, le statut socio-économique et le tempérament de l'enfant est plausible. Le cadrage du regret suppose également que le préjudice à l'enfant correspond directement au regret parental ; certains parents du groupe à accès supervisé peuvent ne pas voir la consommation de leur enfant comme un préjudice qu'ils ont causé, et certains parents prohibitionnistes peuvent regretter d'avoir été trop restrictifs même lorsque leur enfant n'a pas développé de problèmes. L'écart de 15 points doit être interprété comme une direction d'effet, et non comme un différentiel bilatéral précis de regret.

Données brutes : /api/decisions.json

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