Restare in un paese dopo la scadenza del visto vs. partire in tempo
Se agisci
Restare dopo la scadenza del visto
44%
Se non agisci
Partire in tempo, rispettando le condizioni del visto
9,0%
Percentuale di chi poi rimpiange ciascuna scelta. Le barre e il registro completo dei dati compaiono sotto.
Stile di vita
Ultima revisione 2026-05-09
Qualità delle prove 3.88/5
Punteggio di revisione su otto dimensioni rispetto alla
griglia di qualità
. Ogni dimensione valutata da 1 a 5.
D1 Verifica delle fonti
5/5
D2 Autorità e indipendenza delle fonti
4/5
D3 Precisione del tasso di rimpianto
1/5
D4 Comparabilità delle fonti
2/5
D5 Schema di Gilovich
5/5
D6 Qualità della prosa
5/5
D7 Completezza degli avvertimenti
5/5
D8 Qualità del campione
4/5
Media3.88/5
Dati proxy — non esiste alcun sondaggio diretto sul rimpianto per questa decisione. I tassi sono derivati da punteggi di soddisfazione e dati sulle barriere di accesso piuttosto che da domande che chiedevano direttamente del rimpianto. Vedi avvertenze di seguito.
Rimpianto per azione
Restare dopo la scadenza del visto
44%
Proxy del ~44% "lo rifarei" (NON un rammarico specifico per il soggiorno oltre i termini del visto): il 56% dei probabili immigrati privi di documenti dichiara che sceglierebbe comunque di trasferirsi negli USA se potesse tornare indietro nel tempo (in calo dal 72% del 2023), quindi il 44% non lo farebbe — una misura del rammarico legato all'immigrazione in un contesto di controlli inaspriti nel 2025, non del rammarico per aver soggiornato oltre la scadenza del visto in particolare
Probabili immigrati senza documenti negli Stati Uniti (include sforamenti del visto)
indagine retrospettiva, agosto-ottobre 2025
Rimpianto per inazione
Partire in tempo, rispettando le condizioni del visto
9,0%
Proxy modellizzato del ~35% (non esiste un sondaggio diretto): dedotto dalla ricerca sulla migrazione di ritorno, in cui circa un terzo dei migranti di ritorno descrive il proprio rientro come involontario o rimpianto, combinato con il dato KFF secondo cui il 70% degli immigrati dichiara che si trasferirebbe comunque negli USA. Nessun sondaggio misura il rammarico tra le persone che hanno effettivamente lasciato gli USA alla scadenza del visto
Cittadini stranieri che hanno lasciato gli USA alla scadenza del visto e vorrebbero essere stati in grado di rimanere
proxy retrospettivo, 2025
% rimpiange questa scelta
Restare dopo la scadenza del vistoPartire in tempo, rispettando le condizioni del visto
44%9,0%
action dominates — L'azione domina — la maggior parte si pente di aver agito.
Decisioni correlate
Decisioni semanticamente simili — stesso terreno, compromessi diversi.
Fuggire dalla zona di conflittoRestare nella zona di conflitto
13%47%
L'inazione prevale
Rimpianto per l'inazione 3.6× maggiore
The KFF/New York Times 2025 Survey of Immigrants (n = 1,805, conducted August
to October 2025) found that 56% of likely undocumented immigrants in the US
say they would still choose to come to America if they could go back in time,
down from 72% in 2023. The remaining 44% is not a clean regret figure: the
survey question offers three options (would still move, would not, not sure),
and for the full sample the “would not” answer (9%) is dwarfed by “not sure”
(21%) — but KFF does not publish that breakdown for the likely-undocumented
subgroup specifically, so 44% can only be read as an upper bound on regret for
this population, not a validated rate. On the inaction side, no survey asks
people who actually left the US on visa expiration whether they regret it.
The best available proxy uses the same survey’s directly reported finding for
all immigrants: 70% say they would still choose to move to the US, 9% say
they would not, and 21% are not sure — so 9%, not the 30-point “non-yes”
share, is the defensible stand-in for people who watched others build lives,
careers, and families in the US while they departed on schedule. Read this
way, the two proxies may be further apart than a first glance suggests,
though the action-side ceiling of 44% is soft enough that the true gap
cannot be pinned down precisely: the underlying “would still move” figure for
likely undocumented immigrants alone swung from 72% in 2023 to 56% in 2025 as
enforcement intensified.
The mechanism on each side is structurally different. Overstayers who develop
regret are generally responding to chronic enforcement anxiety: 75% of likely
undocumented immigrants in the KFF survey report worrying about detention or
deportation, 77% report negative health impacts from those worries, and 74%
have avoided ordinary activities such as work or medical care. These costs are
ongoing and compounding. The person who left on time bears a one-time
opportunity cost, which may grow over time as they observe the lives built
by those who stayed — a classic Gilovich inaction pattern — but does not
experience the chronic psychological burden of enforcement fear. The tradeoff
is between acute daily anxiety and long-term opportunity loss, which is a
categorically different comparison than most decisions in this dataset.
Both figures carry significant uncertainty and are sensitive to enforcement
context. The underlying “would still move” rate for likely undocumented
immigrants was 72% in 2023 and fell to 56% in 2025 — a 16-point drop tied to
a specific political and enforcement environment — but KFF has not published
how much of that 16-point shift moved into “would not” versus “not sure” for
this subgroup, so the corresponding regret ceilings (28% in 2023, 44% in
2025) should not be read as measured regret rates for either year. The
inaction-side rate (9%) has a firmer anchor: it is the source’s own directly
reported “would not” figure for all immigrants surveyed, not a derived
complement, though it still answers a general immigration-satisfaction
question rather than a departure-specific one. Nationality matters
enormously: the relevant regret calculus for
a Mexican national who overstays and builds a family near the border differs
fundamentally from an Indian H-1B holder who ages out of status or a European
tourist who simply delayed departure by a few weeks. This entry describes
aggregate patterns and should not be read as evidence about any specific
nationality, visa category, or enforcement policy.
Fonti: azione
Registro delle fonti
Ogni numero qui sotto è ciò che ciascuna fonte ha riportato, con la citazione testuale su cui ci siamo basati e come siamo arrivati alla nostra cifra. Clicca su qualsiasi link per verificare direttamente.
[1]Kaiser Family Foundation / New York Times — KFF/New York Times 2025 Survey of Immigrants: Worries and Experiences Amid Increased Immigration Enforcement↗ 1 other entry
Studio primario
75% of likely undocumented immigrants worry about detention or deportation; 77% report negative health impacts from immigration-related worries; 56% say they would still move to the US if they could go back in time (down from 72% in 2023); the source's full-sample breakdown of the same question shows non-yes answers split 9% would-not / 21% not-sure, but does not publish that split for the undocumented subgroup, so the 44% non-yes share for this subgroup is an upper bound on regret, not a validated rate
Estratto
“"Four in ten (41%) immigrants say they personally worry they or a family member could be detained or deported, with worries most pronounced among likely undocumented immigrants (75%). Nearly eight in ten (77%) likely undocumented immigrants say they have experienced negative health impacts due to immigration-related worries. 56 percent of likely undocumented immigrants say they would still choose to move to the United States if they could go back in time, down from 72 percent in 2023."
”
Dati originali da
2025-11-01
Consultato
2026-05-09
Calcolo
KFF/NYT survey conducted August 28 – October 20, 2025, n = 1,805 immigrant adults, nationally representative probability-based sample, with oversampling of likely undocumented immigrants (n ~300-400 subgroup). CORRECTED 2026-07: the prior version of this entry used the complement of the "would still move" rate (100% minus 56% = 44%) and called that "implied regret." This is an invalid derivation: the underlying survey question (Q12, "If you could go back in time knowing what you know now, would you choose to move to the U.S.?") is a three-option item — would still move / would not / not sure — not binary, and the source's own full-sample breakdown shows the non-"yes" share splits into 9% would-not and 21% not-sure (of the 30-point gap for all immigrants surveyed): "One in ten (9%) say they would not choose to move to the U.S. if they could go back in time, and one in five (21%) say they are not sure." Most of the "non-yes" share is uncertainty, not dissent. No breakdown of would-not vs. not-sure is published for the likely-undocumented subgroup specifically, so there is no way to compute a validated regret-only figure for this side. The 44% figure is retained ONLY as an upper bound (the ceiling on how high true regret could be, since at most 44% of this subgroup did not say "yes"), not as a point estimate of regret; the true would-not share for this subgroup is unknown and, by analogy with the full-sample pattern, plausibly well below 44%. CONSTRUCT CAVEAT: this measures views about IMMIGRATING (a would-do-again forced choice), not regret of OVERSTAYING a visa specifically; the survey does not ask about overstaying, nor does it ask whether respondents left after visa expiry. It is the closest available retrospective measure for this population, but the two constructs are not identical, and even the raw "would still move" rate is enforcement-era sensitive (72% in 2023 vs 56% in 2025 among likely undocumented immigrants). The 75% deportation worry and 77% negative health impact figures document the chronic cost of the overstay decision but are not themselves regret measures. The survey was conducted during a period of heightened enforcement (Trump second term), which may depress the "would still move" rate relative to baseline years.
[2]US Department of Homeland Security / US Customs and Border Protection — Entry/Exit Overstay Report, Fiscal Year 2023
Rapporto governativo
FY2023 suspected in-country overstay rate: 1.02% of 39 million expected departures; 399,708 suspected in-country overstays
Estratto
“"By May 1, 2024, the number of Suspected In-Country Overstays for FY 2023 decreased to 399,708, resulting in a Suspected In-Country Overstay rate of 1.02 percent of the 39,005,712 expected departures. For non-Visa Waiver Program countries (excluding Canada and Mexico), the FY 2024 Suspected In-Country Overstay rate is 2.22 percent."
”
Dati originali da
2024-10-01
Consultato
2026-05-09
Calcolo
DHS Entry/Exit Overstay Report FY2023. Used here to establish the scale of the overstay population (hundreds of thousands annually) and the enforcement context. The overstay report does not contain regret data; it establishes that overstays constitute a large share of the undocumented population (estimates suggest over 40% of total undocumented population). Used as the corroborating government source establishing the decision context, not the regret proxy.
Fonti: inazione
Registro delle fonti
Ogni numero qui sotto è ciò che ciascuna fonte ha riportato, con la citazione testuale su cui ci siamo basati e come siamo arrivati alla nostra cifra. Clicca su qualsiasi link per verificare direttamente.
[1]Kaiser Family Foundation / New York Times — KFF/New York Times 2025 Survey of Immigrants: Worries and Experiences Amid Increased Immigration Enforcement↗ 1 other entry
Studio primario
Among all immigrants surveyed, large majorities say key aspects of their lives are better as a result of moving to the US (educational opportunities 74%, financial situation 70%, employment 65%); on whether they would still choose to move to the US if they could go back in time, 70% say yes, 9% say no, and 21% are not sure — the 9% figure is the source's directly reported would-not rate, not a derived complement
Estratto
“"About two-thirds or more immigrants say the educational opportunities for themselves or their children (74%), their financial situation (70%), and their employment situation (65%) are better as a result of moving to the U.S. Seven in ten (70%) immigrants say they would still choose to move to the U.S. One in ten (9%) say they would not choose to move to the U.S. if they could go back in time, and one in five (21%) say they are not sure. This share dropped 16 percentage points among likely undocumented immigrants (from 72% to 56%)."
”
Dati originali da
2025-11-01
Consultato
2026-05-09
Calcolo
The inaction regret proxy (those who left on time but wish they had stayed) is the hardest side to anchor empirically. No published survey specifically asks people who left the US upon visa expiration whether they regret having done so, and this survey's own sample is drawn entirely from immigrants currently living in the US, so it cannot include anyone who left. CORRECTED 2026-07: the prior version of this entry used a complement construction (100% minus the 70% who say they would still move) to derive a 30% "would not" rate. This was an invalid derivation: Q12 of the same survey is a three-option question (would still move / would not / not sure), and the source directly reports the breakdown for all immigrants: 70% would still move, 9% would not, and 21% are not sure. Treating the full 30-point non-"yes" share as regret wrongly folded 21 points of genuine uncertainty into the 9-point "would not" figure. The 0.09 rate now used is the source's own directly-reported "would not" statistic, not a derived complement. This remains a weaker anchor than the action side on two counts: it measures people who stayed rather than people who left, and it answers a general relocation question rather than an overstay- or departure-specific one. It should be read as a rough directional estimate only, not a measured inaction-side regret rate.
[2]Pew Research Center — What we know about unauthorized immigrants living in the U.S.
Fonte di riferimento
The US unauthorized immigrant population grew to 11.0 million in 2022, with 8.3 million in the workforce — a large, economically embedded population, establishing the scale and pull factor against which a leave-on-time decision is weighed
Estratto
“"The unauthorized immigrant population in the United States grew to 11.0 million in 2022, according to new Pew Research Center estimates based on the 2022 American Community Survey. The number of unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. workforce grew from 7.4 million in 2019 to 8.3 million in 2022."
”
Dati originali da
2024-07-22
Consultato
2026-05-09
Calcolo
Pew Research Center overview of the unauthorized immigrant population. Used here only to establish the scale of the population and economic embeddedness (11.0 million people, 8.3 million in the workforce in 2022) that constitutes the pull factor against which a leave-on-time decision is weighed. This article does NOT measure regret, residence duration, or visa-overstay share, so it cannot anchor an inaction regret rate — it is context only. The 0.09 inaction figure is the KFF/NYT survey's own directly-reported all-immigrants would-not-move again rate (see the KFF/NYT source notes above; corrected 2026-07 from an earlier, invalid complement construction), not a measured rate for people who left specifically, and should be read as a directional estimate only.
Avvertenze
MISURAZIONI PROXY SU ENTRAMBI I LATI — il regret_delta di 0,09 rientra nel margine di incertezza di entrambi i proxy e non dovrebbe essere trattato come una differenza significativa. Il proxy del lato azione (0,44) deriva dal sondaggio KFF/NYT 2025: il complemento di "si trasferirebbe comunque negli USA" tra i probabili immigrati privi di documenti. È stato misurato durante un periodo di pressione dei controlli insolitamente elevata (secondo mandato Trump), e la stessa domanda ha prodotto un rammarico implicito del 28% nel 2023 — un aumento di 16 punti percentuali in due anni. Il tasso di rammarico di base del lato azione (fuori dal picco dei controlli) è probabilmente più vicino a 0,25-0,30. Il proxy del lato inazione (0,35) è una deduzione conservativa dalla letteratura sulla migrazione di ritorno e dal forte e persistente fattore di attrazione delle opportunità economiche statunitensi; non ha un ancoraggio diretto a un sondaggio e comporta un'ampia incertezza. Le due popolazioni sono strutturalmente non comparabili: il lato azione è misurato tra persone attualmente negli USA che hanno scelto di prolungare il soggiorno e affrontano la pressione dei controlli, mentre il lato inazione è stimato a partire dalla popolazione di chi è partito e per cui non esiste alcun sondaggio sistematico. Il concetto di "prolungare il soggiorno vs partire" non è nemmeno una singola decisione discreta per la maggior parte delle persone: i soggiorni oltre i termini spesso si accumulano in modo incrementale mentre le persone rinviano la partenza settimana dopo settimana in risposta al mutare delle circostanze, rendendo l'inquadramento retrospettivo del rammarico meno netto rispetto ad altre decisioni di questo insieme di dati. La nazionalità conta in modo significativo: i tassi di soggiorno oltre i termini e le motivazioni economiche differiscono enormemente in base al Paese d'origine, con dinamiche di soggiorno oltre i termini messicane, centroamericane e sud-asiatiche sostanzialmente diverse da quelle dei titolari di visto europei o dell'Asia orientale. Questa voce non dovrebbe essere citata come prova a favore di alcuna specifica posizione di politica sui controlli dell'immigrazione; descrive esiti vissuti e preferenze espresse, non raccomandazioni normative.
