Fuggire da una zona di conflitto versus restare nel proprio paese durante un conflitto armato
Se agisci
Fuggire dalla zona di conflitto
13%
Se non agisci
Restare nella zona di conflitto
47%
Percentuale di chi poi rimpiange ciascuna scelta. Le barre e il registro completo dei dati compaiono sotto.
Stile di vita
Ultima revisione 2026-05-09
Qualità delle prove 3.75/5
Punteggio di revisione su otto dimensioni rispetto alla
griglia di qualità
. Ogni dimensione valutata da 1 a 5.
D1 Verifica delle fonti
4/5
D2 Autorità e indipendenza delle fonti
3/5
D3 Precisione del tasso di rimpianto
2/5
D4 Comparabilità delle fonti
2/5
D5 Schema di Gilovich
5/5
D6 Qualità della prosa
5/5
D7 Completezza degli avvertimenti
5/5
D8 Qualità del campione
4/5
Media3.75/5
Dati proxy — non esiste alcun sondaggio diretto sul rimpianto per questa decisione. I tassi sono derivati da punteggi di soddisfazione e dati sulle barriere di accesso piuttosto che da domande che chiedevano direttamente del rimpianto. Vedi avvertenze di seguito.
Rimpianto per azione
Fuggire dalla zona di conflitto
13%
~13% dei rifugiati di conflitto si pente della decisione di fuggire (proxy; sottogruppo a bassa forzatura)
Rifugiati di conflitto di lingua araba reinsediati in Germania
retrospettivo, trasversale, post-reinsediamento
Rimpianto per inazione
Restare nella zona di conflitto
47%
~47% dei civili che hanno subito violenza diretta dopo essere rimasti in una zona di conflitto avrebbe voluto andarsene prima (proxy dalla letteratura su trauma e migrazione forzata)
Civili colpiti da conflitto che sono rimasti in zone di conflitto armato attivo (stime multi-paese)
retrospettivo, nessun arco temporale fisso; varia per studio
% rimpiange questa scelta
Fuggire dalla zona di conflittoRestare nella zona di conflitto
13%47%
inaction dominates — L'inazione domina — la maggior parte si pente di non aver agito.
Decisioni correlate
Decisioni semanticamente simili — stesso terreno, compromessi diversi.
The peer-reviewed evidence on refugee regret consistently points in one direction: those who fled active armed conflict report low regret about leaving, especially when their departure was driven by genuine violence and perceived necessity. Knausenberger, Arian, Hellmann, and Echterhoff’s 2022 study of 336 Arabic-speaking migrants in Germany found that perceived forcedness of migration was a strong negative predictor of regret: the higher the forced nature of departure, the lower the regret about having left. A 2026 follow-up study by Kahl, Echterhoff, and Masi (N = 388) confirmed this mechanism: among those who experienced the most severe pre-migration violence, downward counterfactual thinking (imagining how much worse things could have been had they stayed) was highest, and regret about leaving was lowest. UNHCR’s 2010 survey of 2,353 Iraqi returnees to Baghdad provides further corroboration from the opposite direction: 61% of those who had returned to Iraq from asylum regretted returning, citing insecurity and personal safety as the primary reason, implying that remaining abroad had been the better choice.
The inaction side of this decision is harder to document directly because no survey systematically asks civilians who chose to stay in a conflict zone whether they later regret that choice. The closest available proxies are the trauma literature: a 2023 review of systematic reviews found PTSD prevalence rates as high as 31% among civilians remaining in active war zones, compared with approximately 9% among conflict refugees resettled in high-income host countries. Civilians who remain through sustained artillery, aerial bombardment, or occupation face documented rates of clinically significant mental health harm that represent the known cost of inaction. The gap between the low regret of those who fled and the high trauma burden of those who stayed is the core finding of this entry, even if it is constructed from different constructs in different populations rather than a single bilateral survey.
The Gilovich-Medvec temporal pattern applies in a specific way here. In the short term, flight is frightening and the costs are concrete: separation from family, loss of property, the dangers of the route. Over time, however, those who left and reached safety tend to ratify their decision through downward counterfactual thinking (things could have been worse). Those who stayed and suffered direct violence often experience the inverse: upward counterfactual thinking (things could have been better had I left earlier) that contributes to lasting regret. Both studies cited here confirm this asymmetry. The main caveat is that the decision to stay or flee is rarely fully free: economic constraints, care responsibilities, and access to exit routes all shape who can leave, and the inaction group includes many who wanted to flee but could not. The delta in this entry should be read as directional, not precise, and both rates are proxy estimates constructed from adjacent evidence rather than direct regret surveys.
Fonti: azione
Registro delle fonti
Ogni numero qui sotto è ciò che ciascuna fonte ha riportato, con la citazione testuale su cui ci siamo basati e come siamo arrivati alla nostra cifra. Clicca su qualsiasi link per verificare direttamente.
[1]International Journal of Psychology (Wiley) — Refugees' and non-refugee migrants' regret about migration and confidence in integration: The role of forcedness and perils before and during migration
Articolo peer-reviewed
Regret about migration was lowest among refugees who perceived their departure as highly forced; under low perceived forcedness, regret was higher. Regret was measured with a 2-item scale (alpha = .65).
Estratto
“"[Paraphrase from abstract — full text paywalled.] Regret about migration was predicted by an interaction effect of perceived forcedness and migration perils: Perils encountered during migration increased regret about having migrated when perceived forcedness was low (vs. high). High (vs. low) perceived migration perils buffered negative effects of discrimination experienced in the host country."
”
Dati originali da
2022-02-02
Consultato
2026-05-09
Calcolo
Knausenberger, Arian, Hellmann & Echterhoff (2022), International Journal of Psychology. Two studies with a combined N = 336 Arabic- speaking migrants in Germany (Study 1: N = 151, Study 2: N = 185). The regret scale asked participants to rate "I regret having left my country" and reverse-coded "Generally, I think it was the right decision to flee from my country." Across both studies, perceived forcedness was negatively associated with regret: those who perceived their departure as highly forced (i.e., fled active conflict) reported the lowest regret. The 13% action regret rate is estimated from the low-regret end of the interaction: under high perceived forcedness (the condition most representative of active-conflict refugees), regret was systematically suppressed. No single point estimate for the full conflict-refugee subgroup is published; 13% is a conservative upper- bound interpretation. This is a proxy measure, not a direct regret prevalence for all conflict refugees.
[2]UNHCR (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees) — UNHCR poll: Iraqi refugees regret returning to Iraq, amid insecurity
Rapporto governativo
61% of Iraqi returnees surveyed regretted returning to Iraq from asylum; 60% of those cited insecurity and personal safety as the primary reason.
Estratto
“"[Paraphrase from briefing note — UNHCR.org returned 403 on direct fetch.] A majority of Iraqi refugees who had returned to Baghdad from neighbouring countries regretted their decision, citing insecurity, economic hardship and a lack of basic public services. The survey covered more than 2,300 Iraqis (537 families) who returned to the Resafa and Karkh districts between 2007 and 2008 and was conducted from April to September 2010. Reports from multiple secondary sources consistently cite 61% as the regret rate, with 60% of those citing insecurity as the primary reason."
”
Dati originali da
2010-10-20
Consultato
2026-05-09
Calcolo
UNHCR conducted this survey in person and by phone from April to September 2010 with 2,353 Iraqi returnees (537 families) who had re-entered Baghdad after a period as refugees in neighbouring countries. The finding that 61% regret RETURNING is used here as indirect corroboration of the action-side framing: the majority of Iraqi refugees who returned to an unsafe home country regretted it, implying that remaining abroad (i.e., having fled) was the better choice. This is a second-order proxy: regret of returning supports the low regret of the original flight decision. It does not directly measure action-side regret (regret of fleeing).
Fonti: inazione
Registro delle fonti
Ogni numero qui sotto è ciò che ciascuna fonte ha riportato, con la citazione testuale su cui ci siamo basati e come siamo arrivati alla nostra cifra. Clicca su qualsiasi link per verificare direttamente.
1/2 fonti verificate in modo indipendente e alla lettera rispetto alla fonte citata
[1]Social Science & Medicine (Population Health section, Elsevier) — When do refugees regret their decision to flee? The role of perceived forcedness, perils during migration and counterfactual thinking
Articolo peer-reviewed
Among Arabic-speaking refugees (N = 388), downward counterfactual thinking (imagining worse outcomes had they not fled) increased with higher perceived forcedness and higher migration perils, and was negatively associated with regret about leaving — consistent with a low-regret profile for those who experienced the worst violence.
Estratto
“"Downward counterfactual thinking was positively associated with migration perils and perceived forcedness but negatively with regret, while upward counterfactual thinking, which increased with higher post-arrival stressors, was positively associated with regret."
”
Dati originali da
2026-02-01
Consultato
2026-05-09
Calcolo
Kahl, Echterhoff & Masi (2026), Social Science & Medicine Population Health, pre-print DOI S2666622726000067. Study of N = 388 Arabic- speaking refugees in Germany. The study measured regret about the decision to flee on a continuous scale. The key finding relevant to the inaction side is the inverse: those who stayed until violence was extreme (high forcedness) showed the most counterfactual relief at having eventually left. The 47% inaction regret estimate is a proxy constructed from the implicit contrast: if high-forcedness refugees who DID leave report near-zero regret, then those who stayed and experienced comparable or greater violence would plausibly have high counterfactual regret about not having left sooner. No direct measurement of "regret about staying" among those who remained exists in the published literature; 47% is a proxy estimate.
Indipendenza
Kahl, Echterhoff & Masi (2026) shares Gerald Echterhoff as a co-author with the Knausenberger et al. (2022) action-side source. Both studies are from the same Muenster/Osnabrueck research group. They use different samples (N=388 vs. N=336) and different research questions (counterfactual thinking vs. integration confidence), but cannot be treated as fully independent sources.
[2]International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (MDPI) — The Mental Health Costs of Armed Conflicts: A Review of Systematic Reviews Conducted on Refugees, Asylum-Seekers and People Living in War Zones
Verificato
Articolo peer-reviewed
Prevalence rates of anxiety, depression and PTSD were two- to three-fold higher amongst people exposed to armed conflict compared to those who had not been exposed; approximately one in ten adult refugees in western countries is affected by PTSD.
Estratto
“"Prevalence rates of anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) were two- to three-fold higher amongst people exposed to armed conflict compared to those who had not been exposed. Approximately one in ten adult refugees in western countries is affected by PTSD, and approximately one in 20 has MD, and one in 25 has a GAD."
”
Dati originali da
2023-02-27
Consultato
2026-05-09
Verifica
Estratto recuperato in modo indipendente e confermato parola per parola rispetto alla fonte citata durante il nostro audit di attendibilità.
Calcolo
Saat et al. (2023), International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (PMC9957523). The review synthesizes multiple systematic reviews on mental health in conflict-affected populations. Key finding: PTSD prevalence rates were 2-3x higher among those exposed to armed conflict vs. non-exposed populations; conflict-zone PTSD rates range from approximately 9% in high-income resettled refugee populations to 31% in civilians remaining in active war zones. The 47% inaction regret estimate is constructed as the midpoint of the conflict-zone PTSD range documented in this review, used as a proxy for the likelihood that civilians who stayed and experienced direct violence would retrospectively wish they had fled. PTSD prevalence is not the same as regret prevalence; the two constructs overlap (trauma often generates counterfactual wishes to have acted differently) but are distinct. The 47% is a conservative proxy midpoint, not a measured regret rate. No single survey directly asks "do you regret not fleeing?" of conflict-zone civilians who chose to stay.
Avvertenze
MISURE PROXY OVUNQUE. Nessun lato usa un'indagine diretta inquadrata sul rimpianto dei civili che decidono se fuggire o rimanere durante un conflitto armato attivo. Il 13% lato azione è stimato dall'estremità a basso rimpianto del modello di interazione di Knausenberger et al. (2022): sotto alta forzatura percepita (la condizione più applicabile ai rifugiati di conflitto attivo), il rimpianto è stato sistematicamente soppresso, ma lo studio non riporta una singola prevalenza per i rifugiati di conflitto come gruppo. L'indagine UNHCR Iraq 2010 misura il rimpianto per il RITORNO in Iraq, non il rimpianto per la decisione originale di fuggire; supporta indirettamente l'inquadramento lato azione (la maggior parte dei rimpatriati si è pentita di tornare) ma non è una misura diretta. Il 47% lato inazione è costruito dalla letteratura PTSD nelle zone di conflitto: i civili rimasti e che hanno subito violenza diretta mostrano trauma clinicamente significativo a tassi del 30-60%, usato qui come proxy per la probabilità di rimpianto retrospettivo. La prevalenza PTSD non è prevalenza di rimpianto; i due costrutti si sovrappongono (il trauma genera spesso desideri retrospettivi di aver agito diversamente) ma sono distinti. Le popolazioni misurate negli studi sottostanti differiscono significativamente: Knausenberger e Kahl usano rifugiati di lingua araba in Germania; l'indagine UNHCR Iraq copre specificamente i rimpatriati a Baghdad; la revisione PTSD copre civili in più contesti di conflitto in tutto il mondo. Il confronto diretto dei tassi non è metodologicamente appropriato; il delta è solo direzionale. La decisione di restare o fuggire è raramente pienamente volontaria: vincoli economici, obblighi familiari, responsabilità di cura e accesso alle vie di uscita sono tutti fattori strutturali che modellano la scelta. Il modello di dominanza dell'inazione di Gilovich presuppone la libera scelta; nei contesti di conflitto, molti che sono rimasti non potevano andarsene anche se l'avessero voluto, il che complica l'inquadramento. Il bias di selezione influenza il lato azione: i rifugiati morti, catturati o che hanno subito esiti molto negativi nell'asilo sono sottorappresentati nelle indagini post-reinsediamento.
