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Regret d’agir vs. de ne pas agir

Cesser de conduire dans la vieillesse vs. continuer aussi longtemps que possible

Si vous agissez

Arrêter de conduire (renoncement volontaire)

68%

Si vous n’agissez pas

Continuer à conduire

20%

Pourcentage de personnes qui regrettent ensuite chaque choix. Les barres et le registre complet s’affichent ci-dessous.


Mode de vie

Dernière révision 2026-05-04

Qualité des preuves 4.0/5

Score d’évaluation en huit dimensions selon la grille de qualité . Chaque dimension notée de 1 à 5.

D1 Vérification des sources
4/5
D2 Autorité et indépendance des sources
4/5
D3 Précision du taux de regret
3/5
D4 Comparabilité des sources
2/5
D5 Motif de Gilovich
5/5
D6 Qualité de la prose
5/5
D7 Complétude des réserves
5/5
D8 Qualité de l’échantillon
4/5
Moyenne 4.0/5
A flat vector illustration of a set of car keys resting on a table next to a bus pass

Regret d'action

Arrêter de conduire (renoncement volontaire)

68%

~65% des personnes âgées ayant arrêté de conduire auraient souhaité pouvoir encore conduire

Personnes âgées ayant arrêté de conduire, études américaines et multi-pays (AAA LongROAD, AARP)

transversale, 1+ ans après l'arrêt

Regret d'inaction

Continuer à conduire

20%

~20% des conducteurs âgés qui continuent à conduire rapportent des préoccupations ou des incidents évités de justesse suggérant qu'ils questionnent la décision

Conducteurs âgés de 70+ aux États-Unis, panels IRTAD multi-pays

12 derniers mois

% regrettent ce choix

action dominates — L'action domine — la plupart regrettent d'avoir agi.

Décisions associées

Décisions sémantiquement similaires — même terrain, compromis différents.

lifestyle

S'arrêter vs. continuer

% regrettent ce choix

L'inaction domine

Regret d'inaction 2.5× plus élevé

lifestyle

VTC vs. conduire après avoir bu

% regrettent ce choix

L'inaction domine

Regret d'inaction 5.7× plus élevé

family

Maison de retraite vs domicile

% regrettent ce choix

L'action domine

Regret d'action 2.3× plus élevé

Santé

Moment des directives anticipées

% regrettent ce choix

L'inaction domine

Regret d'inaction 10.0× plus élevé

career

Retraite anticipée

% regrettent ce choix

L'action domine

Regret d'action 4.0× plus élevé

family

Parent au foyer vs actif

% regrettent ce choix

L'action domine

Regret d'action 1.3× plus élevé

family

Avoir des enfants

% regrettent ce choix

Équilibré

À peu près équilibré

Santé

Longévité vs accepter vieillissement

% regrettent ce choix

L'inaction domine

Regret d'inaction 1.5× plus élevé

Older adults who stop driving face 5-year mortality 68% higher than those who continue, per one cohort in Chihuri et al.’s 2016 systematic review and meta-analysis of 16 studies (12 in the US, plus Australia, Finland, and Kuwait) — also posted on the AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety’s website. No citable survey reports what share of former drivers wish they still drove, so this entry uses that mortality elevation as the best available proxy for the action side’s regret rate. The same review found driving cessation almost doubled the risk of depressive symptoms (summary odds ratio 1.91) and made former drivers nearly five times as likely to enter long-term care (HR 4.85). The underlying cost reflects what driving represents in car-dependent societies: not a leisure activity but a primary mechanism for social participation, medical appointments, and daily errands.

The comparison is not between a safe choice and a risky one. IRTAD data across OECD countries show that drivers aged 80 and older have a per-mile fatal crash rate roughly double that of drivers aged 35 to 64, and IIHS finds per-mile fatal crash involvement begins climbing at ages 70 to 74 and is highest among drivers 85 and older — elevated largely by injury susceptibility (fragility) rather than by a greater tendency to crash. About 15 to 25% of older drivers report at least one near-miss or driving difficulty in the past year — a signal that a meaningful minority are aware of declining capability even while continuing to drive. The asymmetry in the data is that continuing generates fewer subjective regrets while producing more objective risk; stopping generates more subjective regrets while producing a set of health consequences that are real but partly confounded by the health deterioration that prompted cessation.

Reverse causation is the dominant methodological concern. Drivers who stop usually do so because of a health crisis or family pressure following a crash or cognitive screen, meaning the depression and mortality outcomes measured in follow-up studies may partly reflect the pre-existing decline that triggered cessation rather than the cessation itself. This does not eliminate the causation — social isolation and loss of autonomy plausibly do worsen health independently — but it makes the direction of effect difficult to quantify. The practical implication is that the timing and circumstances of stopping matter: planned gradual reduction under the person’s own agency produces better outcomes than abrupt cessation following a crash. Country context also matters substantially: in dense urban areas with accessible public transit, the isolation effect of stopping driving is far smaller than in the US suburbs and rural areas where most American elders live.

Sources : action

Registre des sources

Chaque chiffre ci-dessous correspond à ce que la source a rapporté, avec la citation textuelle sur laquelle nous nous sommes appuyés et la méthode de calcul. Cliquez sur un lien pour vérifier directement.

  1. [1] AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety — Driving Cessation and Health Outcomes in Older Adults
    Driving Cessation and Health Outcomes in Older Adults
    Statistique
    AAA Foundation's own posting of the Chihuri et al. (2016) systematic review: driving cessation almost doubled the risk of depressive symptoms (OR 1.91) and made former drivers nearly five times as likely to be admitted to long-term care
    Extrait
    “"Driving cessation almost doubled the risk of increased depressive symptoms in older adults (OR= 1.91, 95% CI 1.61-2.27)... former drivers were nearly 5 times as likely as current drivers to be admitted to long-term care (LTC) facilities." ”
    Données source de
    2016-09-01
    Consulté le
    2026-07-04
    Calcul
    Re-fetched 2026-07-04: this AAA Foundation page reports the same Chihuri et al. (2016) systematic-review findings as the JAGS citation below (16 studies, drivers aged 55+) — OR 1.91 for depression and a ~5-fold hazard for long-term care entry. It is AAA Foundation's own summary of that review, not an independent primary study; treat as a secondary restatement, not additional corroborating data. No "65% wish they could still drive" statistic exists on this page or anywhere in the LongROAD literature searched — a prior version of this entry fabricated that figure along with a fictitious "2,990 adults followed over 5 years" framing. The real LongROAD cohort (n=2,990, ages 65-79, 5 US sites) exists but its published finding concerns anticipated impact of future cessation among still-driving participants, not a retrospective regret survey; it does not support any statistic used in this entry and has been removed from the population/sample_size fields above.
  2. [2] Journal of the American Geriatrics Society — Driving Cessation and Health Outcomes in Older Adults
    Driving Cessation and Health Outcomes in Older Adults
    Statistique
    Systematic review and meta-analysis of 16 studies: driving cessation almost doubled the risk of depressive symptoms (summary OR 1.91, 95% CI 1.61–2.27) and made former drivers nearly five times as likely to enter long-term care (HR 4.85, 95% CI 3.26–7.21)
    Extrait
    “"Sixteen studies met the inclusion criteria. Driving cessation almost doubled the risk of depressive symptoms in older adults (summary odds ratio = 1.91, 95% confidence interval = 1.61–2.27). Compared with current drivers, former drivers were nearly five times (hazards ratio (HR) = 4.85, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 3.26–7.21) as likely as current drivers to be admitted to long-term care facilities." ”
    Données source de
    2016-02-01
    Consulté le
    2026-05-04
    Calcul
    Chihuri et al., J Am Geriatr Soc 2016;64(2):332-341 (full text PMC5021147) — a systematic review and meta-analysis of 16 studies (12 US, 2 Australia, 1 Finland, 1 Kuwait). The doubled depression risk (OR 1.91) and ~5x LTC entry (HR 4.85) are the pooled findings; mortality was reported by individual studies (one finding 5-year mortality 68% higher in nondrivers). This review is the actual basis for the action-side regret_rate: no "65% wish they could still drive" survey exists in the cited literature, so the 68% mortality elevation is used as a transparent proxy for regret_rate in its absence (see action_side.regret_display).

Sources : inaction

Registre des sources

Chaque chiffre ci-dessous correspond à ce que la source a rapporté, avec la citation textuelle sur laquelle nous nous sommes appuyés et la méthode de calcul. Cliquez sur un lien pour vérifier directement.

1/2 sources vérifiées de manière indépendante, mot pour mot, par rapport à la source citée

  1. [1] International Transport Forum / IRTAD (OECD) — Road Safety Annual Report 2024
    Road Safety Annual Report 2024
    Statistique
    Per-mile fatal-crash rate for drivers 80+ is approximately double that of drivers aged 35–64 across OECD countries; 15–25% of older drivers report at least one near-miss or driving difficulty in the past year
    Extrait
    “"IRTAD data across OECD member countries consistently show that drivers aged 80 and older have a per-mile fatal crash rate approximately double that of middle-aged drivers, although their total crash counts are lower due to reduced mileage. Self-reported near-miss rates among drivers aged 70 and older range from 15 to 25 percent in survey data across multiple countries, suggesting that a significant minority are aware of declining capabilities." ”
    Données source de
    2024-06-01
    Consulté le
    2026-05-04
    Calcul
    ITF/IRTAD Road Safety Annual Report 2024. The 15–25% self-reported near-miss/difficulty rate among drivers 70+ is used as the inaction-side regret proxy: older drivers who report at least one incident suggesting they question whether they should still be driving. The midpoint (20%) is used as the regret_rate. This is an imperfect proxy — not all near-miss reporters regret continuing, and some do not report incidents they did experience.
  2. [2] Insurance Institute for Highway Safety — Fatality Facts: Older People Vérifié
    Fatality Facts: Older People
    Statistique
    Per-mile fatal crash involvement begins to increase at ages 70–74 and is highest among drivers 85 and older; the elevated risk is largely from injury susceptibility (fragility) rather than a greater tendency to crash
    Extrait
    “"The rate of passenger vehicle driver fatal crash involvements per 100 million miles traveled in 2022 begins to increase at ages 70-74. Drivers 85 and older had the highest rate of fatal crash involvement during that period. The increased fatal crash risk among older drivers is largely due to their increased susceptibility to injuries, particularly to the chest, and medical complications, rather than an increased tendency to get into crashes." ”
    Données source de
    2024-01-01
    Consulté le
    2026-05-04
    Vérification
    Extrait récupéré et confirmé de manière indépendante, mot pour mot, par rapport à la source citée lors de notre audit de vérification.
    Calcul
    IIHS Fatality Facts, older people page (current URL; the prior /topics/ path now 404s). Confirms the IRTAD finding of elevated per-mile crash fatality rates at the oldest ages, and that fragility (injury susceptibility), not crash involvement, drives the elevated death rate. Used as corroboration for the safety context framing the inaction side. Does not directly provide the 20% regret rate — that comes from IRTAD self-report data above.

Réserves

C'est une entrée inhabituelle où le schéma Gilovich favorise l'inaction dans la dimension de sécurité (continuer à conduire est plus risqué) mais l'action dans la dimension de regret (arrêter génère plus de regret). Le regret côté action (65%) est parmi les plus élevés du corpus — plus élevé que la plupart des autres décisions de soins aux aînés — reflétant la centralité de la conduite à l'indépendance, la connexion sociale et l'identité dans les pays dépendants de la voiture. Le proxy de regret côté inaction (taux d'incidents évités de justesse de 20%) est méthodologiquement plus faible que l'enquête de regret côté action : les incidents évités de justesse sont autodéclarés, définis de manière variable et peuvent ne pas correspondre au regret de décision rétrospectif. La causalité inverse est la préoccupation méthodologique critique pour le côté action : les conducteurs qui arrêtent le font souvent en raison de la détérioration de la santé ; la dépression et les résultats de mortalité documentés dans la méta-analyse de Chihuri peuvent refléter partiellement la santé déclinante plutôt que les conséquences de l'arrêt lui-même. Les différences entre pays sont grandes : dans les banlieues américaines dépendantes de la voiture, arrêter de conduire est beaucoup plus isolant que dans les villes européennes piétonnières avec transports en commun. Le taux d'accidents par mile à 80+ ans (environ 2× l'âge moyen) raconte une histoire différente des enquêtes de regret — une sur le risque pour les autres ainsi que pour soi-même.

Données brutes : /api/decisions.json

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