¿Cuáles son las probabilidades de contraer encefalitis japonesa como viajero a Asia?

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3/4 fuentes verificadas de forma independiente palabra por palabra frente a la fuente citada

1. [1] US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — Japanese Encephalitis — CDC Yellow Book Verificado ↗ 1 other entry Informe gubernamental

   Japanese Encephalitis — CDC Yellow Book

   See all 2 Likelier entries citing this source →

   Estadística

   Overall incidence of JE among travelers from non-endemic countries is estimated at <1 case per 1 million travelers; short-term (<1 month) travelers restricted to major urban areas are at minimal risk; long-term rural travelers may approach the susceptible pediatric resident rate of 6-11 cases per 100,000 children per year.

   Extracto

   “"The overall incidence of JE among people from non-endemic countries traveling to Asia is estimated to be <1 case per 1 million travelers. … Shorter-term (e.g., <1 month) travelers whose visits are restricted to major urban areas are at minimal risk for JE. … Expatriates and travelers staying prolonged periods in rural areas with active JE virus transmission might be at similar risk as the susceptible pediatric resident population, which is 6–11 cases per 100,000 children per year." ”

   Datos de la fuente de

   2024-05-01

   Accedido

   2026-04-11 · copia archivada

   Verificación

   Extracto recuperado de forma independiente y confirmado palabra por palabra frente a la fuente citada durante nuestra auditoría de fundamentación.

   Cálculo

   CDC Yellow Book gives the headline traveler figure (<1 per million) used as the upper edge of the uncertainty band, and the long-term rural figure (6–11 per 100,000 per year) used as the anchor for the "long-term rural traveler, 1+ month wet season" row of regional_breakdown. The short-term urban point estimate of 5 × 10⁻⁷ is the CDC’s <1 per million divided by a factor of 2 to reflect the "minimal risk" subgroup language.

   Independencia

   CDC Yellow Book is the primary US traveler-facing clinical guidance, synthesised from CDC programmatic estimates and the peer-reviewed travel-medicine literature. Shares CDC publisher and authorship overlap with the ACIP MMWR recommendations (Hills et al. co-authored both); Hills et al. 2010 and WHO are the meaningfully independent cross-checks.

2. [2] American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene (Hills, Griggs, Fischer) — Japanese encephalitis in travelers from non-endemic countries, 1973–2008 Revisado por pares

   Japanese encephalitis in travelers from non-endemic countries, 1973–2008

   Estadística

   55 published JE cases in travelers from 17 non-endemic countries over 1973-2008; 10 deaths (18%); 24 (44%) with sequelae; 65% of detailed-assessment cases had spent >=1 month in endemic areas; overall estimate <1 case per million travelers.

   Extracto

   “"We identified 55 JE cases in travelers or expatriates from 17 non-endemic countries. … Ten (18%) patients died and 24 (44%) had sequelae. … Among 37 case-patients with detailed risk assessment, 24 (65%) had spent ≥ 1 month in JE-endemic areas. … The overall risk of JE for travelers to JE-endemic countries is estimated to be less than 1 case/1 million travelers." ”

   Datos de la fuente de

   2010-05-01

   Accedido

   2026-04-11 · copia archivada

   Cálculo

   Hills et al. is the peer-reviewed anchor for the <1 per million figure and for the long-duration-rural skew: roughly two-thirds of traveler cases with detailed data occurred in people who had spent a month or more in endemic areas. This is the empirical basis for the ~200× personal_factor_multiplier on "long-term rural stay." Drawn from a case pool (published traveler case reports 1973–2008) that is methodologically independent of the CDC programmatic estimate, so it counts as genuine corroboration rather than restatement.

   Independencia

   Hills et al. is a published case-series review; the CDC Yellow Book figure derives from CDC’s programmatic estimates and case reporting. The two overlap (Hills is a CDC author) but use different pipelines, so treat as partially dependent.

3. [3] US CDC / MMWR Recommendations and Reports (Hills et al.) — Japanese Encephalitis Vaccine: Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices Verificado Informe gubernamental

   Japanese Encephalitis Vaccine: Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices

   Estadística

   Overall JE incidence among US travelers 1993-2017 estimated at <1 case per million trips to Asia; vaccine not recommended for short-term urban-only itineraries or travel outside the transmission season.

   Extracto

   “"The overall incidence of JE among persons from nonendemic countries who travel to Asia is estimated to be less than one case per 1 million travelers. … JE vaccine is not recommended for travelers with very low-risk itineraries, such as shorter-term travel limited to urban areas or travel that occurs outside of a well-defined JE virus transmission season." ”

   Datos de la fuente de

   2019-07-19

   Accedido

   2026-04-11 · copia archivada

   Verificación

   Extracto recuperado de forma independiente y confirmado palabra por palabra frente a la fuente citada durante nuestra auditoría de fundamentación.

   Cálculo

   ACIP’s own recommendation text explicitly does NOT recommend the vaccine for short-term urban-only itineraries. This is the primary citation for the "debunked" myth_framing: the official body tasked with vaccine policy agrees that the risk for the modal Asia tourist is too low to warrant the vaccine.

   Independencia

   Shares CDC upstream with the Yellow Book entry; used here for the explicit vaccine-policy framing rather than a second independent estimate of incidence.

4. [4] World Health Organization — Japanese encephalitis — Fact sheet Verificado Fuente de referencia

   Japanese encephalitis — Fact sheet

   Estadística

   ~100,000 clinical JE cases per year globally (95% CI: 61,720-157,522); case fatality rate up to 30%; 20-30% of survivors suffer permanent cognitive, behavioural or neurological sequelae; 24 countries in SE Asia and Western Pacific have transmission risk covering >3 billion people.

   Extracto

   “"There are an estimated about 100 000 clinical cases (95% CI: 61 720– 157 522) of JE globally each year. … The case fatality rate can be as high as 30% among those with disease symptoms. … Of those who survive, 20–30% suffer permanent cognitive, behavioural or neurological sequelae such as seizures. … Twenty-four countries in the WHO South-East Asia and Western Pacific Regions have JEV transmission risk, which includes more than 3 billion people." ”

   Datos de la fuente de

   2024-05-09

   Accedido

   2026-04-11 · copia archivada

   Verificación

   Extracto recuperado de forma independiente y confirmado palabra por palabra frente a la fuente citada durante nuestra auditoría de fundamentación.

   Cálculo

   WHO provides the severity anchor: ~30% case fatality and ~20-30% sequelae among survivors. Applied to the short-term traveler point estimate of 5 × 10⁻⁷, the per-trip death risk is on the order of 1 in 6-7 million and the per-trip severe-sequelae risk is of similar magnitude — an order of magnitude rarer than being killed in a commercial plane crash per flight.

   Independencia

   WHO figure is based on the Campbell et al. (2011) Bulletin of the WHO global burden estimate, independent of the CDC traveler-specific numbers.