¿Cuáles son las probabilidades de morir por cáncer de pulmón?

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2/6 fuentes verificadas de forma independiente palabra por palabra frente a la fuente citada

1. [1] International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) / World Health Organization — New report on global cancer burden in 2022 by world region and human development level Verificado ↗ 2 other entries Informe gubernamental

   New report on global cancer burden in 2022 by world region and human development level

   See all 3 Likelier entries citing this source →

   Estadística

   Lung cancer was the leading cause of cancer death globally in 2022, with an estimated 1.8 million deaths (18.7% of all cancer deaths), and the most frequently diagnosed cancer with 2.5 million new cases (12.4% of all cancers)

   Extracto

   “"Lung cancer was the most frequently diagnosed cancer in 2022 – representing almost 2.5 million new cases, or one in eight cancers, worldwide (12.4% of all cancers globally). Lung cancer was also the leading cause of cancer death, being responsible for an estimated 1.8 million deaths (18.7%)." ”

   Datos de la fuente de

   2024-04-04

   Accedido

   2026-04-11 · copia archivada

   Verificación

   Extracto recuperado de forma independiente y confirmado palabra por palabra frente a la fuente citada durante nuestra auditoría de fundamentación.

   Cálculo

   GLOBOCAN 2022 reports ~1.8 million global lung cancer deaths. Across ~6.0 billion adults (age 18+), that is ~0.30 per 1,000 adults per year. Naive 60-year compounding: 1 − (1 − 3.0e-4)^60 ≈ 0.018, or ~1 in 55 lifetime. Used as the primary global headline and for the "#1 cancer killer" framing in the body text. Lung cancer’s 18.7% share of cancer deaths is larger than any other single cancer site, beating out colorectal, liver, breast, and stomach.

   Independencia

   IARC GLOBOCAN is the upstream dataset that WHO, ACS international comparisons, and the IHME Global Burden of Disease cancer module all draw from. Treat this source and the WHO lung cancer fact sheet below as partially dependent: they agree because WHO republishes IARC headline numbers.

2. [2] World Health Organization — Lung cancer — fact sheet Informe gubernamental

   Lung cancer — fact sheet

   Estadística

   Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death globally; 60-70% of preventable cases are attributable to tobacco smoking

   Extracto

   “"More than 1.3 million cases in men and nearly 500 000 lung cancer cases in women are preventable, with the majority attributable to tobacco smoking (60–70%), followed by air pollution and occupational exposure." ”

   Datos de la fuente de

   2023-06-26

   Accedido

   2026-04-26 · copia archivada

   Cálculo

   WHO states 60-70% of preventable lung cancer cases are attributable to tobacco smoking — not 85% of all cases. The "85%" figure on the WHO page refers to non-small-cell lung cancer’s share of all lung cancer histological types, not smoking attribution. The CDC’s US-specific figure of 80-90% of lung cancer deaths linked to smoking (source 5 below) is the appropriate anchor for the US smoking-attribution fraction. The 60-70% WHO global figure is lower partly because it refers to preventable cases (not deaths) and partly because global smoking prevalence is lower than historical US rates.

   Independencia

   WHO lung cancer fact sheet republishes IARC/GLOBOCAN headline numbers; same upstream data pipeline as the first source. Included as the authoritative institutional endorsement of the smoking-attribution figure rather than as independent verification of the death count.

3. [3] American Cancer Society — Lifetime Probability of Developing or Dying From Cancer ↗ 2 other entries Fuente de referencia

   Lifetime Probability of Developing or Dying From Cancer

   See all 3 Likelier entries citing this source →

   Estadística

   US lifetime probability of dying from lung and bronchus cancer: 3.7% for men (≈ 1 in 27), 3.5% for women (≈ 1 in 29)

   Extracto

   “"Lung and bronchus [mortality]: Men 3.7% (1 in 27); Women 3.5% (1 in 29)." ”

   Datos de la fuente de

   2025-01-30

   Accedido

   2026-04-11 · copia archivada

   Cálculo

   ACS uses SEER mortality data (2020-2022) to compute direct lifetime probabilities from a life-table conditional on birth. These are methodologically the gold standard for "direct" lifetime risk and anchor the US row in regional_breakdown. Note that these figures are averaged across US smokers and never-smokers; the smoker-only figure is an order of magnitude higher, and the never-smoker figure is an order of magnitude lower. The US number sits above the global adult figure of ~1.8% mainly because historical US smoking prevalence was high and because competing mortality in LMICs removes adults from the denominator before they reach peak lung-cancer-risk age.

   Independencia

   SEER (NCI) and IARC (WHO) are independent compilation pipelines — SEER is US-only vital registration and population-based cancer registries, IARC aggregates national registry data worldwide. Comparing the two anchors the global-vs-US gap in this entry’s regional_breakdown.

4. [4] American Cancer Society — Key Statistics for Lung Cancer Verificado Fuente de referencia

   Key Statistics for Lung Cancer

   Estadística

   Lung cancer is by far the leading cause of cancer death in the US, accounting for about 1 in 5 of all cancer deaths; ~125,000 US lung cancer deaths per year (63,040 men, 61,950 women in the 2026 projection); lifetime chance of developing lung cancer ~1 in 19

   Extracto

   “"Lung cancer is by far the leading cause of cancer death in the US, accounting for about 1 in 5 of all cancer deaths. [...] About 124,990 deaths from lung cancer (63,040 in men and 61,950 in women). [...] Overall, the chance that a person will develop lung cancer in their lifetime is about 1 in 19." ”

   Datos de la fuente de

   2026-01-16

   Accedido

   2026-04-11 · copia archivada

   Verificación

   Extracto recuperado de forma independiente y confirmado palabra por palabra frente a la fuente citada durante nuestra auditoría de fundamentación.

   Cálculo

   The "about 1 in 5 of all cancer deaths" framing is the plain-English headline used in the body text: lung cancer kills more Americans each year than colon, breast, and prostate cancers combined. ~125,000 US lung cancer deaths / ~260 million US adults ≈ 0.48 per 1,000 adults per year, compounded over 60 adult years: 1 − (1 − 4.8e-4)^60 ≈ 0.028, or about 2.8% — higher than the global ~1.8% but lower than the sex-specific ACS direct lifetime figures (which include pre-adult exposure and more complete age weighting). Used for the "1 in 5 cancer deaths" framing and as the annual US aggregate anchor.

   Independencia

   ACS Key Statistics and ACS Lifetime Probability page share the same SEER upstream. Treated as a single institutional pipeline for the US-specific figures.

5. [5] US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — Lung Cancer Risk Factors ↗ 1 other entry Informe gubernamental

   Lung Cancer Risk Factors

   See all 2 Likelier entries citing this source →

   Estadística

   In the United States, cigarette smoking is linked to about 80% to 90% of lung cancer deaths; indoor radon is another important cause

   Extracto

   “"In the United States, cigarette smoking is linked to about 80% to 90% of lung cancer deaths. [...] Indoor radon is another important cause of lung cancer in the United States. [...] The risk of lung cancer from radon exposure is higher for people who smoke than for people who don’t smoke." ”

   Datos de la fuente de

   2024-07-22

   Accedido

   2026-04-11 · copia archivada

   Cálculo

   CDC’s "80% to 90%" US attribution is the domestic anchor for the smoking multiplier and the never-smoker baseline. Combined with the ACS 125,000 annual US lung cancer death figure, that implies ~100,000-112,000 US smoking-attributable lung cancer deaths per year. The remaining ~13,000-25,000 include radon (EPA estimates ~21,000 total radon-attributable lung cancer deaths per year, with ~2,900 among never-smokers), occupational asbestos and diesel exhaust, air pollution, and a residual genetic/idiopathic background.

   Independencia

   CDC draws on SAMMEC (Smoking-Attributable Mortality, Morbidity, and Economic Costs) and on Cancer Prevention Study II hazard ratios, partially overlapping with the ACS/SEER upstream but with independent attribution methodology.

6. [6] US Environmental Protection Agency — Health Risk of Radon ↗ 1 other entry Informe gubernamental

   Health Risk of Radon

   See all 2 Likelier entries citing this source →

   Estadística

   Radon is the second leading cause of lung cancer in the US and the leading cause in never-smokers; ~21,000 radon-related lung cancer deaths per year, including ~2,900 in never-smokers

   Extracto

   “"Radon is the number one cause of lung cancer among non-smokers [...] radon is the second leading cause of lung cancer. [...] Radon is responsible for about 21,000 lung cancer deaths every year. [...] About 2,900 of these deaths occur among people who have never smoked." ”

   Datos de la fuente de

   2024-06-12

   Accedido

   2026-04-11 · copia archivada

   Cálculo

   EPA radon figures are used as the basis for the "radon exposure" personal factor multiplier and for the body text on never-smoker lung cancer. ~2,900 never-smoker radon deaths across ~180 million US never-smoker adults implies a baseline annual rate on the order of 0.016 per 1,000, which compounds over 60 years to ~0.1% — small in absolute terms but non-trivial and actionable through home radon testing. The multiplicative interaction between radon and smoking is the classical Darby et al. 2005 BMJ pooled analysis finding.

   Independencia

   EPA radon estimates are based on the BEIR VI National Research Council model and on independent environmental sampling — methodologically independent of the ACS/SEER cancer mortality pipeline.