Quelles sont les probabilités de mourir d'un AVC ?

Chaque chiffre ci-dessous correspond à ce que la source a rapporté, avec la citation textuelle sur laquelle nous nous sommes appuyés et la méthode de calcul. Cliquez sur un lien pour vérifier directement.

2/3 sources vérifiées de manière indépendante, mot pour mot, par rapport à la source citée

1. [1] World Health Organization — The top 10 causes of death Vérifié ↗ 2 other entries Rapport gouvernemental

   The top 10 causes of death

   See all 3 Likelier entries citing this source →

   Statistique

   Stroke responsible for approximately 10% of global deaths in 2021 (≈6.5-6.8 million), third leading cause of death worldwide

   Extrait

   “"The world's biggest killer is ischaemic heart disease, responsible for 13% of the world's total deaths. [...] Instead of being the second and third leading causes of death as in 2019, stroke and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease became the third and fourth in 2021, responsible for approximately 10% and 5% of total deaths, respectively. [...] The top global causes of death, in order of total number of lives lost, are associated with two broad topics: cardiovascular (ischaemic heart disease, stroke) and respiratory (COVID-19, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lower respiratory infections)." ”

   Données source de

   2024-08-07

   Consulté le

   2026-04-11 · copie archivée

   Vérification

   Extrait récupéré et confirmé de manière indépendante, mot pour mot, par rapport à la source citée lors de notre audit de vérification.

   Calcul

   WHO reports 68 million total deaths globally in 2021; stroke at ~10% implies roughly 6.8 million annual stroke deaths. Across ~5.5 billion adults (age 18+), that is ~1.24 per 1,000 adults per year. Compounded over 60 adult years: 1 - (1 - 1.24e-3)^60 ≈ 0.072, adjusted to 0.067 for competing mortality. COVID-19 displaced stroke from #2 to #3 in 2020-2021; pre-pandemic baselines in GBD and WSO data place stroke solidly at #2, and most forecasts expect stroke to return to #2 as COVID recedes.

   Indépendance

   WHO Global Health Estimates draw on national vital-registration and IHME / GBD modelling pipelines, so this figure is not fully independent of Feigin et al. / GBD stroke estimates. Used here as the canonical institutional source.

2. [2] World Stroke Organization (Feigin et al., Int J Stroke) — WSO Global Stroke Fact Sheet 2022 Vérifié Revue par les pairs

   WSO Global Stroke Fact Sheet 2022

   Statistique

   Stroke is the second-leading cause of death worldwide; 43% increase in stroke deaths between 1990 and 2019; 86% of stroke deaths occur in lower- and lower-middle-income countries

   Extrait

   “"Stroke remains the second-leading cause of death and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined [...] The estimated global cost of stroke is over US$721 billion (0.66% of the global GDP) [...] From 1990 to 2019, there was a substantial increase of [...] 70.0% increase in incident strokes, 43.0% deaths from stroke, 102.0% prevalent strokes, and 143.0% DALYs [...] 86.0% of deaths and 89.0% of DALYs [occur in] lower-income and lower-middle-income countries." ”

   Données source de

   2022-01-01

   Consulté le

   2026-04-11 · copie archivée

   Vérification

   Extrait récupéré et confirmé de manière indépendante, mot pour mot, par rapport à la source citée lors de notre audit de vérification.

   Calcul

   WSO's pre-pandemic baseline (stroke as #2 cause of death) is the number Likelier uses as the underlying rate. The 43% rise in absolute stroke deaths from 1990 to 2019 reflects population ageing more than rising per-capita risk; age-standardised stroke mortality has been falling globally. Used as the authoritative peer-reviewed cross-check on the WHO figure, and as the source of the "second leading cause" framing in the long-form text.

   Indépendance

   WSO Fact Sheet uses Global Burden of Disease 2019 data, which WHO Global Health Estimates also draws from; the two sources should be treated as partially dependent.

3. [3] US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — Stroke Facts Rapport gouvernemental

   Stroke Facts

   Statistique

   In the US, someone dies of stroke every 3 minutes 14 seconds; stroke accounts for about 1 in 6 cardiovascular deaths (17.5%)

   Extrait

   “"Every 3 minutes and 14 seconds, someone dies of stroke in this country. [...] 1 in 6 deaths (17.5%) from cardiovascular disease was due to stroke. [...] Stroke is a leading cause of death for Americans. [...] Stroke risk increases with age, but strokes can — and do — occur at any age." ”

   Données source de

   2024-05-15

   Consulté le

   2026-04-11 · copie archivée

   Calcul

   One stroke death every 194 seconds in the US works out to ~163,000 US stroke deaths per year, or ~49 per 100,000 — less than half the crude global rate implied by the WHO figures, consistent with the WSO finding that 86% of stroke deaths are in low- and middle-income countries. Used here to anchor the gap between the US-only number (which would give a lifetime figure closer to 1 in 25) and the global-adult figure Likelier reports for this entry.

   Indépendance

   CDC Stroke Facts draws from the NCHS/NVSS death-certificate pipeline, a different upstream from WHO GHE and WSO/GBD modelled estimates. Provides an independent US-only anchor for the crude-rate sanity check, even though WHO figures ultimately incorporate US vital-registration data.