Xác suất tử vong trong đại dịch tiếp theo là bao nhiêu?

Mỗi con số dưới đây là những gì mỗi nguồn đã báo cáo, cùng với trích dẫn nguyên văn mà chúng tôi dựa vào và cách chúng tôi đưa ra con số của mình. Nhấp vào bất kỳ liên kết nào để xác minh trực tiếp.

1. [1] Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences / Marani M, Katul GG, Pan WK, Parolari AJ — Intensity and frequency of extreme novel epidemics Được bình duyệt

   Intensity and frequency of extreme novel epidemics

   Thống kê

   Probability of a pandemic with similar impact to COVID-19: ~2% per year (pre-correction); probability of a 1918-scale pandemic: 0.3-1.9% per year; pandemic frequency increasing roughly threefold in coming decades due to accelerating zoonotic spillover

   Trích đoạn

   “"The probability of a pandemic with similar impact as COVID-19 is about 2% in any year, meaning that someone born in the year 2000 would have about a 38% chance of experiencing one by now. [...] The probability of novel disease outbreaks will likely grow three-fold in the next few decades." ”

   Dữ liệu nguồn từ

   2021-08-31

   Truy cập

   2026-04-18 · bản sao lưu trữ

   Tính toán

   Marani et al. assembled a global dataset of epidemics from 1600 to present and used extreme-value statistics to estimate occurrence probabilities. The headline ~2%/year for a COVID-scale event was the most-cited result. A 2023 correction (PNAS 120(19):e2302169120) identified a code error that inflated probabilities by roughly 2x, reducing the COVID-scale annual probability to roughly 0.75-1%. The corrected estimates are used in this entry's calculation. The finding that pandemic frequency is increasing ~3x is based on the accelerating rate of novel pathogen spillover events over the past 50 years and is directionally supported by independent analyses (CEPI, WHO priority pathogen reviews).

   Độc lập

   Marani et al. is the primary statistical analysis of historical pandemic frequency. It is methodologically independent of the WHO and NCBI/Disease Control Priorities sources, which use different frameworks (expert elicitation, epidemiological modelling) rather than extreme-value statistics.

2. [2] Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences — Correction for Marani et al., Intensity and frequency of extreme novel epidemics Được bình duyệt

   Correction for Marani et al., Intensity and frequency of extreme novel epidemics

   Thống kê

   Code erroneously computed number of epidemics per year by summing events in two subsequent years, resulting in inflated probabilities and lower mean recurrence intervals

   Trích đoạn

   “"The code erroneously computed the number of epidemics in one year by summing the number of events in two subsequent years. This resulted in an inflated number of events/year and, as a consequence, in larger probabilities of occurrence and lower mean recurrence intervals." ”

   Dữ liệu nguồn từ

   2023-05-02

   Truy cập

   2026-04-18 · bản sao lưu trữ

   Tính toán

   The 2023 correction is critical context for interpreting the Marani et al. 2021 headline figures. The coding error roughly doubled the estimated annual probability, meaning the widely cited "2% per year" should be read as closer to 0.75-1% per year post-correction. This entry uses the corrected range. The directional finding — that pandemic frequency is increasing — was not affected by the correction.

   Độc lập

   This is a correction to the Marani et al. 2021 paper, not an independent source. Included because the correction materially changes the headline probability used in the normalised calculation.

3. [3] Disease Control Priorities, Third Edition / Jamison DT, Gelband H, et al. — Pandemics: Risks, Impacts, and Mitigation Nguồn tham khảo

   Pandemics: Risks, Impacts, and Mitigation

   Thống kê

   In any given year, ~1% probability of an influenza pandemic causing nearly 6 million pneumonia/influenza deaths (8 per 10,000) or more; ~3% probability of a 2009-Swine-flu-scale event (0.2-0.8 per 10,000); influenza pandemics occur on average once every 25-30 years

   Trích đoạn

   “"In any given year, the probability of an influenza pandemic causing nearly 6 million pneumonia and influenza deaths (8 deaths per 10,000 persons) or more globally is 1 percent. [...] An influenza pandemic having the global mortality rate observed during the 2009 Swine flu pandemic (0.2–0.8 deaths per 10,000 persons) or worse has about a 3 percent probability of occurring in any given year." ”

   Dữ liệu nguồn từ

   2017-11-27

   Truy cập

   2026-04-18 · bản sao lưu trữ

   Tính toán

   The Disease Control Priorities estimate of ~1%/year for an influenza pandemic causing ~6 million deaths is in the same range as the Marani post-correction estimate, using a different methodology (expert elicitation and historical analogy rather than extreme-value statistics) and a different threshold (~6 million influenza deaths). DCP also reports a ~3%/year probability of a 2009-Swine-flu-scale event and notes that influenza pandemics occur on average once every 25-30 years. This source anchors the central-to-lower end of the uncertainty band and validates the order of magnitude: both frameworks agree that a major pandemic within a 25-year window is plausible.

   Độc lập

   Methodologically independent of Marani et al. — uses expert elicitation and epidemiological modelling rather than extreme-value statistics on historical data. Published before COVID-19, so it is also independent of any pandemic-recency bias.

4. [4] Center for Global Development — How Big Is the Risk of Epidemics, Really? Nguồn tham khảo

   How Big Is the Risk of Epidemics, Really?

   Thống kê

   In any given year, ~4.2% probability of a respiratory pandemic causing ~10 million deaths; 35% probability in a given decade; 66% probability over a 25-year period; respiratory epidemics likely to cause ~2.5 million deaths per year on average

   Trích đoạn

   “"In any given year, there's a 4.2 percent probability of a respiratory pandemic causing ~10 million deaths. That amounts to a 35 percent probability in a given decade, and a 66 percent probability over a 25-year period." ”

   Dữ liệu nguồn từ

   2021-09-01

   Truy cập

   2026-04-18 · bản sao lưu trữ

   Tính toán

   CGDEV's analysis synthesises multiple pandemic-frequency estimates and reports a 4.2% annual probability of a respiratory pandemic causing ~10 million deaths, amounting to a 35% probability in a given decade and a 66% probability over a 25-year period. This is higher than the Marani post-correction estimate (0.75-1%) because CGDEV uses a lower death threshold (~10 million) and incorporates the accelerating trend in zoonotic spillover. The 66% probability within 25 years is the figure most useful for the lifetime calculation. This entry uses the lower-threshold Marani/DCP figures for the central calculation and the CGDEV figures for the upper uncertainty bound.

   Độc lập

   Independent of Marani — CGDEV synthesises a broader literature and uses different modelling assumptions. Partially dependent on the Disease Control Priorities framework as one input.