Xác suất bị lốc xoáy giết chết là bao nhiêu?

Mỗi con số dưới đây là những gì mỗi nguồn đã báo cáo, cùng với trích dẫn nguyên văn mà chúng tôi dựa vào và cách chúng tôi đưa ra con số của mình. Nhấp vào bất kỳ liên kết nào để xác minh trực tiếp.

1. [1] NOAA / NWS Storm Prediction Center — SPC Warning Coordination Meteorologist Page — Tornado, Hail, and Wind Statistics Báo cáo chính phủ

   SPC Warning Coordination Meteorologist Page — Tornado, Hail, and Wind Statistics

   Thống kê

   30-year (1996-2025), 20-year (2006-2025), and 10-year (2016-2025) state-level annual averages of US tornado fatalities, derived from the SPC tornado database (1950-2024)

   Trích đoạn

   “"Annual Averages: Tornado Fatalities by State — 30 Year Average (1996-2025), 20 Year Average (2006-2025), 10 Year Average (2016-2025). The SPC tornado database CSV files cover 1950 through 2024." ”

   Dữ liệu nguồn từ

   2026-01-12

   Truy cập

   2026-04-11 · bản sao lưu trữ

   Tính toán

   The SPC publishes the underlying yearly fatality counts and state-level averages we use to anchor the long-run ~70/year national figure. SPC's per-state maps are also what makes the geographic non-uniformity quantitative — fatalities are heavily concentrated in Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri, and the Plains states.

   Độc lập

   SPC is the upstream source for most other US tornado fatality datasets, including the Insurance Information Institute table cited below, so these two sources should be treated as a single authoritative chain rather than two independent estimates.

2. [2] Insurance Information Institute (data sourced from NOAA SPC / NWS) — Facts + Statistics: Tornadoes and Thunderstorms Nguồn tham khảo

   Facts + Statistics: Tornadoes and Thunderstorms

   Thống kê

   US tornado fatalities by year, 2014-2024: 47, 36, 18, 35, 10, 42, 76, 103, 23, 83, 54 (mean ≈ 48/year for that window)

   Trích đoạn

   “"Tornadoes and Related Deaths in the United States, 2006-2025. 2014: 47; 2015: 36; 2016: 18; 2017: 35; 2018: 10; 2019: 42; 2020: 76; 2021: 103; 2022: 23; 2023: 83; 2024: 54. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Storm Prediction Center, National Weather Service." ”

   Dữ liệu nguồn từ

   2025-12-01

   Truy cập

   2026-04-11 · bản sao lưu trữ

   Tính toán

   The 2014-2024 window averages ~48/year, but is depressed by several unusually quiet years (2016, 2018, 2022). Longer windows that include the 2011 super-outbreak year (553 deaths) push the long-run average closer to 70/year, which is why we use 70 as the headline native figure rather than the most recent decade's mean. Either choice gives a lifetime risk between 1 in 80,000 and 1 in 120,000.

   Độc lập

   I.I.I. republishes NOAA SPC / NWS data verbatim. Treated as a convenient year-by-year tabulation, not as independent verification.

3. [3] NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory (Harold Brooks) — A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States Được bình duyệt

   A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States

   Thống kê

   Mean annual US tornado death toll fell from ~260 (1912-1936) to ~54 (1976-2000); per-capita rate dropped roughly 15-fold from ~1.7 per million in the early 20th century to ~0.12 per million by 2000

   Trích đoạn

   “"The mean annual death toll [in 1912-1936] was 260, almost five times as many as in 1976-2000, when the mean was 54. ... Death rates remained relatively constant at approximately 1.6-1.8 per million population annually [pre-1925]. After 1925, rates declined sharply to roughly 0.12 per million by 2000 — approximately a 15-fold decrease." ”

   Dữ liệu nguồn từ

   2009-03-01

   Truy cập

   2026-04-11 · bản sao lưu trữ

   Tính toán

   Brooks's long-run NSSL analysis is the basis for the claim that the modern era is qualitatively different from the early-20th-century baseline. We use his per-capita figure (~0.12 per million ≈ 0.012 per 100k) as a sanity check on our 70/333M ≈ 0.021 per 100k headline; the small drift upward reflects population growth and the inclusion of high-outbreak years like 2011.

   Độc lập

   Brooks's analysis predates SPC's most recent decade of data and uses NWS Storm Data directly, so it provides genuine methodological independence on the historical trend even though the underlying database is shared.

4. [4] Gensini & Brooks, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science (Nature) — Spatial trends in United States tornado frequency Được bình duyệt

   Spatial trends in United States tornado frequency

   Thống kê

   Over 1979-2017, significant increasing trends in tornado reports and tornado-favorable environments across portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Tennessee, and Kentucky, with significant decreasing trends over portions of Texas, Oklahoma, and northeast Colorado

   Trích đoạn

   “"We find significant decreasing trends in frequencies of both tornado reports and tornado environments over portions of the central and southern Great Plains (e.g., Texas and Oklahoma), and significant increasing trends over portions of the Midwest and Southeast United States (e.g., Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Tennessee, and Kentucky), 1979-2017." ”

   Dữ liệu nguồn từ

   2018-10-17

   Truy cập

   2026-06-14 · bản sao lưu trữ

   Tính toán

   Gensini & Brooks does not change the national ~70/year headline figure; it supports the entry's central caveat that the spatial distribution of tornado risk is migrating eastward toward the more densely housed, more nocturnal-tornado-prone Southeast, which is why the Dixie-Alley personal multiplier is set above the Plains. It is a frequency- and-environment trend study, not a fatality count, so it informs the geographic multiplier rather than the per-year fatality denominator.

   Độc lập

   Uses the SPC tornado database for reports but adds an independent reanalysis-based Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) environment analysis, providing methodological independence from a pure report-count climatology.