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1. [1] U.S. Geological Survey — Questions About Supervolcanoes Báo cáo chính phủ

   Questions About Supervolcanoes

   Thống kê

   Annual probability of a Yellowstone supereruption is approximately 1 in 730,000

   Trích đoạn

   “"The annual probability of a Yellowstone eruption is approximately 1 in 730,000... Given Yellowstone's past history, the yearly probability of another caldera-forming eruption can be approximated as 1 in 730,000 or 0.00014%." ”

   Dữ liệu nguồn từ

   2024-01-15

   Truy cập

   2026-04-18 · bản sao lưu trữ

   Tính toán

   USGS derives the 1-in-730,000 figure from Yellowstone's three caldera-forming eruptions over 2.1 million years (2.1M / 3 ≈ 700,000-year average interval, rounded to 730,000). Annual individual risk: 1/730,000 ≈ 1.37 × 10⁻⁶. Over 59 adult years: 1 − (1 − 1.37 × 10⁻⁶)⁵⁹ ≈ 8.08 × 10⁻⁵. This is the probability of experiencing a supereruption, not dying in one — mortality would depend on location, agricultural collapse severity, and societal response.

2. [2] Bulletin of Volcanology (Mason, Pyle, Oppenheimer) — The size and frequency of the largest explosive eruptions on Earth Được bình duyệt

   The size and frequency of the largest explosive eruptions on Earth

   Thống kê

   M8 (VEI-8) eruptions recur roughly once per 700,000 years globally (minimum ≈1.4 events per million years over the past 36 Ma)

   Trích đoạn

   “"Eruptions of size M8 and larger have occurred with a minimum frequency of ≈1.4 events/Ma in two pulses over the past 36 Ma. On the basis of the activity during the past 13.5 Ma, there is at least a 75% probability of a M8 eruption (>10¹⁵ kg) occurring within the next 1 Ma." ”

   Dữ liệu nguồn từ

   2004-11-01

   Truy cập

   2026-04-18 · bản sao lưu trữ

   Tính toán

   Mason, Pyle & Oppenheimer catalogue 47 known M≥8 eruptions, of which 42 fall in the past 36 Ma, giving a minimum global M8 frequency of ≈1.4 events/Ma — i.e. one roughly every 700,000 years, comparable to the USGS Yellowstone-specific interval when only a single system is considered. The record is incomplete (a minimum count), and other authors (e.g. Pyle 2000; Self 2006) place the effective supereruption recurrence at one per 100,000–200,000 years once undercounting is corrected. Because the older record is progressively less complete, the USGS single-system Yellowstone estimate is the more conservative, better-constrained figure used for the headline calculation.

   Độc lập

   Mason et al. use a global geological catalogue of large explosive eruptions independent of USGS Yellowstone Volcano Observatory monitoring data.

3. [3] U.S. Geological Survey (Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, Caldera Chronicles) — So, when will the next eruption at Yellowstone happen? Báo cáo chính phủ

   So, when will the next eruption at Yellowstone happen?

   Thống kê

   Yellowstone is not 'overdue'; the ~0.001% annual eruption probability is likely an overestimate for the short term

   Trích đoạn

   “"Based on our current knowledge of Yellowstone's eruptive history, the annual probability of a volcanic eruption is on the order of 0.001%, but even this low number is probably an overestimate for the short term." ”

   Dữ liệu nguồn từ

   2024-11-04

   Truy cập

   2026-04-18 · bản sao lưu trữ

   Tính toán

   USGS explicitly cautions that the naive recurrence-interval calculation overstates near-term risk because Yellowstone shows no precursory magmatic signals consistent with an impending eruption. This caveat is reflected in the wide uncertainty band applied to the normalized lifetime figure.