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1. [1] Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences — Rate of false conviction of criminal defendants who are sentenced to death Được bình duyệt

   Rate of false conviction of criminal defendants who are sentenced to death

   Thống kê

   4.1% estimated false conviction rate among US death-sentenced defendants, 1973–2004 (95% CI: 2.8–5.2%)

   Trích đoạn

   “"We use survival analysis to model this effect, and estimate that if all death-sentenced defendants remained under sentence of death indefinitely, at least 4.1% would be exonerated. We conclude that this is a conservative estimate of the proportion of false conviction among death sentences in the United States." ”

   Dữ liệu nguồn từ

   2014-04-28

   Truy cập

   2026-04-12 · bản sao lưu trữ

   Tính toán

   Gross et al. applied Kaplan-Meier survival analysis to 7,482 death sentences (1973–2004), identifying 117 exonerations. The 4.1% figure accounts for censoring (defendants removed from death row before exoneration could occur). The 95% CI of 2.8–5.2% is used directly as the uncertainty band, widened to 6% at the high end to account for the possibility that non-capital felonies have similar or higher base rates with less post-conviction scrutiny.

   Độc lập

   This is the only peer-reviewed study using formal survival analysis to estimate wrongful conviction rates. The National Registry of Exonerations provides independent case-level corroboration but uses a different methodology (cumulative count, not modeled rate).

2. [2] University of Michigan Law School / Michigan State University — National Registry of Exonerations — About Nguồn tham khảo

   National Registry of Exonerations — About

   Thống kê

   3,698 known exonerations in the US since 1989 (as of mid-2025); 147 exonerations recorded in 2024

   Trích đoạn

   “"The National Registry of Exonerations provides detailed information about every known exoneration in the United States since 1989. As of June 2025, the Registry lists 3,698 exonerations." ”

   Dữ liệu nguồn từ

   2025-06-28

   Truy cập

   2026-04-12 · bản sao lưu trữ

   Tính toán

   The Registry is a case-level database, not a rate estimate. It records known exonerations but cannot estimate the denominator (total convictions) or the number of wrongful convictions that were never discovered. The 147 exonerations in 2024, with an average of 13.5 years of wrongful imprisonment each, illustrate the scale but do not yield a rate. Used here as corroborating evidence for the Gross et al. estimate, not as a competing figure.

   Độc lập

   The Registry is maintained by the University of Michigan and Michigan State, independently of the Gross et al. PNAS study, though Gross is a co-founder of both. The data pipelines are distinct: the PNAS study uses survival modeling on a closed 1973–2004 cohort, while the Registry is an ongoing, open-ended case collection.