Kualitas bukti 4.5/5
Skor tinjauan delapan dimensi terhadap rubrik kualitas . Setiap dimensi dinilai 1–5.
- D1 Dasar sumber
- 5/5
- D2 Otoritas sumber
- 5/5
- D3 Aritmetika
- 4/5
- D4 Ketidakpastian
- 4/5
- D5 Cakupan
- 5/5
- D6 Prosa
- 4/5
- D7 Kejujuran persepsi
- 4/5
- D8 Kelengkapan peringatan
- 5/5
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- Faktor Anda
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Dipersepsikan
Setelah kekacauan 2022 — ketika beberapa maskapai besar AS membatalkan 3–4 % penerbangan terjadwal dan kekacauan liburan yang menonjol mendominasi liputan berita — banyak pelancong mengkalibrasi kecemasan pembatalan mereka ke atas. Persepsi bahwa pembatalan penerbangan adalah bahaya yang sering dan tak terduga tetap bertahan bahkan ketika maskapai kembali ke keandalan mendekati-rekor pada 2023–2024. Sebagian besar pelancong sering, jika ditanya, akan memperkirakan risiko pembatalan per-perjalanan antara 5 % dan 20 % — agak lebih tinggi daripada kenyataan saat ini untuk perjalanan penerbangan tunggal.
Perkiraan kasar: Kebanyakan pelancong menebak 5–20 % per perjalanan setelah gangguan 2022
Sumber: intuisi redaksi, bukan hasil survei
Aktual
~1,4 % penerbangan terjadwal AS dibatalkan pada 2024
penerbangan terjadwal domestik dan internasional AS yang dioperasikan oleh maskapai pemasaran pelapor (BTS DOT 2024)
Rata-rata paparan seumur hidup: ~236 (4/yr × 59 yr)
Tampilkan perhitungan
BTS Air Travel Consumer Report (tahun penuh 2024): maskapai pemasaran pelapor mencatat tingkat pembatalan 1,4 % dari penerbangan terjadwal (turun dari 2,7 % pada 2022, serupa dengan 1,3 % pada 2023). Pelancong udara AS tipikal terbang sekitar 4 segmen penerbangan per tahun (perjalanan pulang-pergi = 2 segmen × 2 perjalanan ≈ 4 segmen). Selama 40 tahun terbang dewasa (usia 18–58, mencerminkan periode perjalanan paling aktif): probabilitas setidaknya satu pembatalan = 1 − (1 − 0,014)^(4×40) = 1 − (0,986)^160 ≈ 0,89. Angka ini kumulatif sepanjang masa terbang penuh dan digunakan sebagai ujung atas ketidakpastian. Estimasi pusat menggunakan asumsi yang lebih konservatif 4 segmen/tahun selama 30 tahun aktif terbang: 1 − (0,986)^120 ≈ 0,82. Namun, mengingat cakupannya activity_specific_lifetime dan banyak orang dewasa AS terbang jauh lebih jarang, nilai pusat ditetapkan pada 0,56, sesuai dengan kira-kira 58 total segmen penerbangan sepanjang masa terbang (sekitar 2 perjalanan pulang-pergi/tahun selama 15 tahun aktif, atau 1 perjalanan pulang-pergi/tahun selama 30 tahun): 1 − (0,986)^58 ≈ 0,56. Ini mencerminkan perilaku perjalanan udara orang dewasa AS median lebih daripada pelancong sering kuartil-teratas. Probabilitas per-segmen: 1,4 % = 0,014.
Catatan: Tingkat per-segmen 1,4 % adalah rata-rata nasional di seluruh rute domestik dan …
Tingkat per-segmen 1,4 % adalah rata-rata nasional di seluruh rute domestik dan internasional yang dioperasikan oleh maskapai pelapor. Ini menyembunyikan variasi signifikan menurut maskapai (maskapai murah terkadang mengungguli maskapai besar; Spirit secara historis berkinerja buruk), rute (koridor cuaca-tinggi mengalami tingkat lebih tinggi), dan musim. Angka seumur hidup 0,56 sangat sensitif terhadap asumsi tentang total segmen penerbangan yang ditempuh — pelancong jarang (1 perjalanan pulang-pergi per tahun selama 20 tahun = 40 segmen) menghadapi probabilitas seumur hidup 43 %, sementara pelancong sering (20 segmen/tahun selama 30 tahun = 600 segmen) mendekati kepastian. Angka BTS menghitung pembatalan maskapai pemasaran yang dilaporkan ke DOT; penerbangan yang dioperasikan oleh mitra code-share regional terkadang dilaporkan secara terpisah. Entri ini hanya mencakup pembatalan penuh — keterlambatan signifikan (yang memengaruhi fraksi penerbangan jauh lebih tinggi) adalah kejadian terpisah dengan konsekuensi yang berbeda.
Risiko terkait
Risiko lain dengan tema serupa — untuk menjelajahi ketakutan terkait.
Bagasi salah tangani
Berapa peluang maskapai kehilangan atau salah menangani bagasi yang sudah lapor?
Gangguan perjalanan: perang atau bencana
Berapa kemungkinan perjalanan terganggu secara signifikan akibat perang, kerusuhan politik, atau bencana alam?
Kecelakaan cedera yang bersalah
Berapa peluang menyebabkan kecelakaan yang melukai orang lain sebagai pengemudi yang bersalah?
Sepeda listrik tanpa helm
Berapa peluang cedera kepala serius saat mengendarai sepeda listrik tanpa helm?
Skuter listrik tanpa helm
Berapa peluang cedera kepala serius saat mengendarai skuter listrik tanpa helm?
Hampir bertabrakan di landasan
Berapa peluang penerbangan Anda terlibat dalam insiden hampir bertabrakan yang serius di landasan pacu?
Pilih penantang
Flight cancellations are more common than the modal flying experience suggests, but less common than the 2022 holiday chaos left many travelers believing. The Bureau of Transportation Statistics’ full-year 2024 data puts the US cancellation rate at 1.4% of scheduled flights — meaning roughly 1 in 71 individual flight segments is canceled before departure. For a traveler who flies 4 segments per year (two round trips), that translates to about a 5.4% annual probability of experiencing at least one cancellation — unremarkable in any given year, but nearly certain over a lifetime of regular flying.
The 2022 spike to 2.7% — nearly double the baseline rate — was driven by factors within the airlines’ control. A 2023 Government Accountability Office review found that the leading causes of cancellations in late 2021 and into 2022 were airline-controlled: aircraft maintenance backlogs and, above all, pilot and crew shortages, with winter weather events adding to the toll. Airlines made targeted operational fixes and returned to the 1.3-1.4% range by 2023-2024. The underlying cancellation floor sits close to the 0.6% low that BTS recorded in September 2024 — even the calmest months see some weather-driven cancellations that airlines cannot avoid. Winter storm months and the August peak-summer travel period consistently run well above that floor: BTS recorded a 2.0% rate in August 2024, roughly three times the September low, and high-disruption hubs like O’Hare, JFK, and Denver run structurally above the national average.
The practical consequences of a cancellation vary enormously depending on rebooking options, the passenger’s flexibility, travel insurance coverage, and the airline’s policies. Since 2024 the DOT has strengthened automatic refund rules for canceled flights, making the financial consequence more predictable than the logistical one. The risk of a cancellation is not symmetric: it falls much harder on travelers with tight connections, time-sensitive events, or complex itineraries. A cancellation on the outbound leg of a weekend trip is a minor inconvenience; the same event the night before a wedding or surgery is materially different.
Fakta terkait
Sekitar 1.4% penerbangan terjadwal AS dibatalkan pada 2024. Penerbangan tunggal mana pun sangat mungkin tetap beroperasi, tetapi sepanjang masa terbang peluang per penerbangan terakumulasi menjadi sekitar 56% peluang setidaknya satu penerbangan dibatalkan.
Buku besar klaim
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[1] Bureau of Transportation Statistics (DOT) — Air Travel Consumer Report: December 2024, Full Year 2024 Numbers
Air Travel Consumer Report: December 2024, Full Year 2024 NumbersSee all 2 Likelier entries citing this source →
- Statistik
1.4% of flights canceled in full-year 2024 by reporting marketing carriers, up from the 1.3% rate in 2023- Kutipan
“"In 2024, 1.4% of flights were cancelled, higher than the 1.3% cancellation rate in 2023." ... "In 2024, the reporting marketing carriers posted a cancellation rate of 1.4%, up from 1.3% in 2023." ”
- Data sumber dari
- 2025-02-01
- Diakses
- 2026-05-14 · salinan arsip
- Perhitungan
- BTS reports cancellation rates monthly. The full-year 2024 rate of 1.4% is the share of scheduled domestic and international flights operated by reporting marketing carriers that were canceled. Per-segment: 0.014. For 80 segments (4/year × 20 years): 1 − (0.986)^80 ≈ 0.67. For 58 segments (median estimate): 1 − (0.986)^58 ≈ 0.56. The central estimate of 0.56 is used.
- Independensi
- BTS Air Travel Consumer Report data is compiled from mandatory reporting by US airlines to the DOT under 14 CFR Part 234. It is a regulatory administrative dataset and independent from airline customer satisfaction surveys, industry association reports, or travel insurance claims databases.
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[2] Bureau of Transportation Statistics (DOT) — Air Travel Consumer Report: December 2023, Full Year 2023 Numbers
Air Travel Consumer Report: December 2023, Full Year 2023 Numbers- Statistik
2023 cancellation rate: 1.29% for reporting marketing carriers — lowest in over a decade; 2022 cancellation rate: 2.7%- Kutipan
“"The reporting marketing carriers posted a cancellation rate of 1.29% in 2023, down from 2.7% in 2022. The 2023 cancellation rate was among the lowest in over a decade for the national airspace system." ”
- Data sumber dari
- 2024-02-01
- Diakses
- 2026-05-14 · salinan arsip
- Perhitungan
- The 2023 full-year 1.29% rate provides the prior-year anchor for the 2024 figure. The two-year average of 2023-2024 is (1.29 + 1.4) / 2 ≈ 1.35%, which is broadly consistent with the central 1.4% estimate used in the normalized calculation. The 2022 spike to 2.7% represents a period of above-average disruption not expected to be representative of future baseline rates.
- Independensi
- Same BTS DOT mandatory-reporting pipeline as the 2024 annual report. The two annual reports are from the same administrative data system and are internally consistent, providing a multi-year trend for context.
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[3] US Government Accountability Office (GAO-23-105524) — Airline Passenger Protections: Observations on Flight Delays and Cancellations, and DOT's Efforts to Address Them
Airline Passenger Protections: Observations on Flight Delays and Cancellations, and DOT's Efforts to Address Them- Statistik
GAO found the leading causes of flight cancellations in late-2021 and April 2022 were factors within the airlines' control; pilot and crew shortages had the greatest impact- Kutipan
“"Overall, the leading causes for flight cancellations in late-2021, as well as April 2022, were factors within the airlines' control. ... Shortages in pilots and aircraft crew had a greater impact on flight[s], according to representatives from all of the four airlines and three unions we spoke with." ”
- Data sumber dari
- 2023-04-13
- Diakses
- 2026-06-30 · salinan arsip
- Perhitungan
- Used for context on drivers of the elevated 2021-2022 cancellation period. GAO attributes the cancellation surge primarily to airline-controlled factors (aircraft maintenance and, above all, pilot/crew shortages), with weather driving many winter cancellations. This supports treating the 2022 spike as an operational anomaly and using the 2023-2024 rates (~1.3-1.4%) as the current baseline rather than the elevated 2022 figure.
- Independensi
- The GAO is an independent, nonpartisan legislative-branch audit agency, distinct from both BTS (which compiles the statistics) and the airlines that report them. Its review of DOT/BTS performance data provides an oversight perspective separate from BTS's statistical compilation role.
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[4] Bureau of Transportation Statistics (DOT) — Scheduled, canceled, and operated flights by month 2019-2024 (through December)
Scheduled, canceled, and operated flights by month 2019-2024 (through December)- Statistik
Monthly marketing-carrier domestic cancellation rates in 2024 (canceled ÷ scheduled): August 2.03% (13,434 / 660,639), September 0.59% (3,670 / 621,649)- Kutipan
“"Scheduled, canceled, and operated flights by month 2019-2024 (through December)." ... "Operated = Scheduled Flights Minus Canceled Flights." Workbook: "Scheduled-canceled-operated-flights-by-month-Jan-2019-through-December 2024.xlsx". ”
- Data sumber dari
- 2025-03-14
- Diakses
- 2026-07-14 · salinan arsip
- Perhitungan
- The companion monthly workbook to the full-year 2024 Air Travel Consumer Report (both dated 2025-03-14). Cancellation rate per month = Total Domestic Flight Cancellations ÷ Total Scheduled Domestic Flights. August 2024: 13,434 ÷ 660,639 = 2.03% ≈ 2.0%. September 2024: 3,670 ÷ 621,649 = 0.59% ≈ 0.6%. Cross-checks against the annual ATCR's rounded monthly figures confirm the table is the authoritative monthly source: November 2024 = 2,804 ÷ 614,597 = 0.46% ≈ 0.5% and December 2024 = 4,579 ÷ 631,944 = 0.72% ≈ 0.7%, matching the ATCR verbatim. Grounds the Aug/Sep monthly figures cited in the prose and in the seasonal-peak personal factor; does not change the headline native (1.4%) or normalized (0.56) values.
- Independensi
- Same BTS DOT mandatory-reporting pipeline (14 CFR Part 234) as the annual Air Travel Consumer Report; this is the monthly breakdown released alongside the full-year 2024 report. Administrative regulatory data, independent of airline customer-satisfaction surveys or insurance-claims datasets.