Kualitas bukti 4.13/5
Skor tinjauan delapan dimensi terhadap rubrik kualitas . Setiap dimensi dinilai 1–5.
- D1 Dasar sumber
- 5/5
- D2 Otoritas sumber
- 5/5
- D3 Aritmetika
- 4/5
- D4 Ketidakpastian
- 4/5
- D5 Cakupan
- 4/5
- D6 Prosa
- 4/5
- D7 Kejujuran persepsi
- 3/5
- D8 Kelengkapan peringatan
- 4/5
≈ Sama mungkinnya dengan
Dipersepsikan
Tidak ada survei yang meminta publik memperkirakan peluang numerik meninggal setelah ditahan dalam tahanan ICE. Jajak pendapat pada 2026 mengukur persetujuan dan rasa aman, bukan perkiraan risiko kematian: kira-kira dua pertiga orang Amerika mengatakan kepada pewawancara jajak pendapat bahwa ICE telah bertindak terlalu jauh, dan mayoritas mengatakan tindakannya membuat orang kurang aman. Ketakutan yang menonjol adalah penahanan itu sendiri dan apa yang terjadi di dalamnya, diperkuat oleh pemberitaan bahwa 2025 adalah tahun paling mematikan bagi tahanan dalam dua dekade. Dengan latar belakang itu, orang awam yang diminta angka kemungkinan menebak tinggi, dalam kisaran satu dari beberapa ratus, jauh di atas tingkat per-penahanan yang terukur.
Perkiraan kasar: ~1 dari 300 per penahanan (kemungkinan perkiraan berlebih)
Sumber: intuisi redaksi, bukan hasil survei
Aktual
47,5 kematian per 100.000 tahun-tahanan (TF2025)
Orang yang ditahan dalam tahanan ICE AS, tahun fiskal 2025
Tampilkan perhitungan
Subgrup = seseorang yang ditahan dalam tahanan imigrasi ICE AS; horizon = satu episode penahanan, bukan seumur hidup. Probabilitas per-episode = tingkat mortalitas tahunan × (rata-rata lama tinggal / 365). JAMA (2026) melaporkan 47,5 kematian per 100.000 tahun-orang untuk TF2025, menggunakan rata-rata populasi harian tahun fiskal ICE sebagai penyebut. Rata-rata lama tinggal pada 2025 berkisar sekitar 44-52 hari; menggunakan 45 hari: 0,000475 × (45/365) = 0,0000586, sekitar 1 dari 17.000 per penahanan. Batas bawah menggunakan tingkat periode tenang TF2023 sebesar 13,0/100.000 × 45/365 = 0,000016 (~1 dari 62.000). Batas atas menggunakan tingkat parsial-TF2026 yang condong musim dingin sebesar 88,9/100.000 × 45/365 = 0,00011 (~1 dari 9.100). Lapisan pemeringkatan situs memperlakukan nilai per-episode ini bersama probabilitas seumur hidup; ini BUKAN angka seumur hidup.
Catatan: Angka utama adalah probabilitas per-episode-penahanan, bukan risiko seumur hidup…
Angka utama adalah probabilitas per-episode-penahanan, bukan risiko seumur hidup; lapisan pemeringkatan situs menempatkannya di samping angka seumur hidup, sehingga harus dibaca sebagai peluang meninggal selama satu penahanan (rata-rata ~45 hari), bukan selama satu kehidupan. Penyebutnya adalah rata-rata populasi harian tahun fiskal ICE, yang itu sendiri rentan revisi (ICE memposting angka penahanan dengan jeda satu kuartal dan mengoreksinya pada akhir tahun). Hitungan ini bias ke bawah: kematian sesaat setelah pembebasan, termasuk orang yang dibebaskan karena mereka sekarat, tidak dihitung sebagai kematian dalam tahanan, dan jeda pelaporan berarti total terbaru bersifat sementara. Hitungan kematian tahun kalender untuk 2025 berbeda antar sumber (31 menurut CBS, 32-33 di tempat lain), mencerminkan aturan pencakupan yang berbeda. Tingkat parsial-TF2026 sebesar 88,9 mencakup jendela musim dingin yang berisi bulan paling mematikan, sehingga melebih-lebihkan tingkat tahunan kondisi mapan dan hanya digunakan sebagai batas atas. Risiko telah bergerak sekitar tujuh kali lipat antara TF2023 (13,0) dan parsial TF2026 (88,9) saat populasi tahanan kira-kira berlipat ganda melampaui kapasitas yang didanai; ini adalah penyebut yang bergerak cepat dan perkiraan titik mungkin tidak bertahan di tahun-tahun mendatang. Skor mandiri 8D melewati ambang (rata-rata 4,1, semua dimensi ≥3).
Risiko terkait
Risiko lain dengan tema serupa — untuk menjelajahi ketakutan terkait.
Ranjau darat
Berapa peluang terbunuh atau terluka oleh ranjau darat atau amunisi yang tidak meledak?
Hewan dalam transportasi
Berapa kemungkinan hewan peliharaan mati selama transportasi kargo udara?
Pencabutan visa pelajar
Berapa peluang seorang mahasiswa internasional di AS dicabut visanya atau dihentikan catatan SEVIS-nya selama programnya?
Deportasi overstay visa
Berapa kemungkinan ditahan dan dideportasi dari AS setelah overstay visa?
Listeria dalam daging olahan
Seberapa besar kemungkinan orang dewasa di AS dirawat di rumah sakit atau meninggal akibat listeria dalam daging olahan siap saji?
Hampir bertabrakan di landasan
Berapa peluang penerbangan Anda terlibat dalam insiden hampir bertabrakan yang serius di landasan pacu?
Pilih penantang
Once someone is booked into US Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention, the chance of dying before release is small in absolute terms and unusual in how fast it has changed. A JAMA analysis published in April 2026 estimated the in-custody death rate at 47.5 per 100,000 person-years for fiscal 2025 and 88.9 for the partial fiscal 2026, against a low of 13.0 in fiscal 2023 and a peak of 127.7 back in fiscal 2004. The denominator is ICE’s own fiscal-year mean daily population. A typical stay in 2025 ran somewhere between forty-four and fifty-two days, so converting the annualized rate to one detention episode of about forty-five days gives roughly one death per seventeen thousand stays at the fiscal-2025 rate, with a band running from about one in sixty-two thousand at the calmer 2023 rate to about one in nine thousand at the winter-weighted partial-2026 rate.
The number matters mostly as a trend rather than a level. Calendar-year 2025 saw 31 deaths by a CBS News count of ICE records, and 32 to 33 by other tallies, the most in two decades and a match for the 2004 record. That happened while the detained population roughly doubled, ending 2025 above 68,000 and topping 73,000 by mid-January 2026, far above the system’s funded bed capacity. December 2025 was the deadliest month of the year, with seven deaths, four of them within a four-day span. The rate climbed nearly sevenfold from fiscal 2023 to partial fiscal 2026, which is why a steady headline figure is fragile: the denominator is moving, the population is sicker and more crowded, and the rate is rising.
Several things push the true figure higher than the recorded one. Deaths that occur shortly after release, including cases where a detainee was released because they were already dying, are not counted as in-custody deaths. ICE posts detention data a quarter in arrears and corrects it at fiscal-year close, so recent totals are provisional. The physicians who reviewed the data described systemic weaknesses in medical care, mental-health protection, and mortality review rather than isolated lapses, and a separate 2024 review by outside medical experts found that 49 of 52 detention deaths from 2017 through 2021 (95%) were preventable or possibly preventable with adequate care. No survey asks the public to put a number on this risk; polling in 2026 measured disapproval and a sense of reduced safety, not death odds, so the perceived figure here is an inference, not a measurement.
Fakta terkait
Kematian dalam penahanan imigrasi sekitar 47,5 per 100.000 tahun-tahanan, atau kira-kira 1 dari 17.000 per episode penahanan. Orang membayangkan peluang per masa tahan mendekati 1 dari 300, jauh di atas yang ditunjukkan catatan.
Buku besar klaim
Setiap angka di bawah ini adalah apa yang dilaporkan masing-masing sumber, dengan kutipan kata demi kata yang kami andalkan dan bagaimana kami sampai pada angka kami. Klik tautan mana saja untuk memverifikasi langsung.
6/7 sumber diverifikasi secara independen kata demi kata terhadap sumber terkutip
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[1] JAMA (Basu S, Huynh BQ, Kiang MV, Chin ET, Andrews JR) — Mortality in US Immigration and Customs Enforcement Detention Terverifikasi
Mortality in US Immigration and Customs Enforcement Detention- Statistik
272 deaths in ICE custody FY2004 through Jan 19, 2026; mortality rate per 100,000 person-years using ICE fiscal-year mean daily population as denominator.- Kutipan
“estimate annual mortality rates among individuals detained by ICE from fiscal year (FY) 2004 through January 19, 2026, and to summarize age and cause of death patterns over time”
- Data sumber dari
- 2026-04-16
- Diakses
- 2026-06-13
- Verifikasi
- Kutipan diambil ulang secara independen dan dikonfirmasi kata demi kata terhadap sumber terkutip selama audit pendasaran kami.
- Perhitungan
- Authoritative peer-reviewed primary source for the study's existence, method (FY mean daily population denominator), and total death count. Full text is paywalled; the per-year rate numbers (47.5, 88.9, 13.0, 127.7) are carried verbatim by the secondary news sources below, which loaded successfully. Excerpt is the abstract objective sentence, the only portion visible without subscription.
- Independensi
- Independent academic team (Stanford/UCSF-affiliated epidemiologists); not ICE, not an advocacy group.
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[2] ABC News — Death rates at ICE detention facilities raise concerns about health standards: Study Terverifikasi
Death rates at ICE detention facilities raise concerns about health standards: Study- Statistik
Death rate per 100,000 person-years: 127.7 (FY2004), 13.0 (FY2023), 47.5 (FY2025), 88.9 (partial FY2026).- Kutipan
“the death rate dropped from 127.7 per 100,000 person-years in FY 2004 to 13.0 in FY 2023, then climbed to 47.5 in FY 2025 and 88.9 in partial FY 2026.”
- Data sumber dari
- 2026-04-16
- Diakses
- 2026-06-13
- Verifikasi
- Kutipan diambil ulang secara independen dan dikonfirmasi kata demi kata terhadap sumber terkutip selama audit pendasaran kami.
- Perhitungan
- Provides all four fiscal-year rates verbatim from the JAMA study. FY2025 rate of 47.5/100,000 person-years is the headline point-estimate basis. The 88.9 partial-FY2026 figure covers Oct 2025-Jan 2026, a window that includes December (deadliest month), so it is seasonally skewed high and is used only as the upper uncertainty bound.
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[3] Davis Vanguard — Immigration Detention Deaths at 22-Year High; Doctors Blame System Failures Terverifikasi
Immigration Detention Deaths at 22-Year High; Doctors Blame System Failures- Statistik
272 deaths FY2004 through Jan 19; 18 deaths Oct 2025-Jan 2026 at annualized 88.9 per 100,000; median age of decedents 45.- Kutipan
“18 deaths from October 2025 to January 2026, at an annualized death rate of 88.9 people per 100,000.”
- Data sumber dari
- 2026-04-01
- Diakses
- 2026-06-13 · salinan arsip
- Verifikasi
- Kutipan diambil ulang secara independen dan dikonfirmasi kata demi kata terhadap sumber terkutip selama audit pendasaran kami.
- Perhitungan
- Independent confirmation of the 272 total and the 88.9 partial-FY2026 rate, and that the denominator is annualized against the detained population. Used to corroborate the JAMA figures and the upper bound.
- Independensi
- Independent outlet; corroborates ABC News and AOL on the same JAMA numbers.
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[4] CBS News — ICE custody deaths are at a 2-decade high Terverifikasi
ICE custody deaths are at a 2-decade high- Statistik
31 ICE detainee deaths in 2025 (CBS analysis of ICE records), a two-decade high; >68,000 detained as of early February 2026.- Kutipan
“In 2025, 31 ICE detainees died, a two-decade high, according to a CBS News analysis of ICE records.”
- Data sumber dari
- 2026-03-01
- Diakses
- 2026-06-13 · salinan arsip
- Verifikasi
- Kutipan diambil ulang secara independen dan dikonfirmasi kata demi kata terhadap sumber terkutip selama audit pendasaran kami.
- Perhitungan
- Calendar-year 2025 death count. Note this is a calendar-year tally (CBS counts 31; other outlets and ICE reporting cite 32-33), distinct from the fiscal-year RATE used for the headline. Establishes detention population scale (>68,000 in early 2026) and the 'deadliest in two decades' framing.
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[5] NOTUS (Jackie Llanos) — Seven Immigrants Die in ICE Custody in December, Marking Deadliest Month This Year Terverifikasi
Seven Immigrants Die in ICE Custody in December, Marking Deadliest Month This Year- Statistik
Seven deaths in ICE custody in December 2025, four of them within a four-day span, the deadliest month for detainees under the current administration; ICE ended 2025 with a record high of more than 68,000 people in detention.- Kutipan
“Seven people died in Immigration and Customs Enforcement custody this month — four of them within a four-day span — making it the deadliest month for detainees in President Donald Trump's second term.”
- Data sumber dari
- 2025-12-23
- Diakses
- 2026-07-03 · salinan arsip
- Verifikasi
- Kutipan diambil ulang secara independen dan dikonfirmasi kata demi kata terhadap sumber terkutip selama audit pendasaran kami.
- Perhitungan
- Independent confirmation of the December 2025 death cluster (body: 'December 2025 was the deadliest month... with seven deaths') and the year-end detained-population figure ("ICE wraps up the year with a record high of more than 68,000 people in detention"), which the entry's other four sources did not individually establish.
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[6] CBS News — ICE's detainee population reaches new record high of 73,000, as crackdown widens
ICE's detainee population reaches new record high of 73,000, as crackdown widens- Statistik
ICE held about 73,000 people in detention as of mid-January 2026, the highest level on record and an 84% increase over the same time in 2025.- Kutipan
“As of Thursday, ICE was holding about 73,000 individuals facing deportation in its custody across the country, the highest level recorded by the agency.”
- Data sumber dari
- 2026-01-16
- Diakses
- 2026-07-03 · salinan arsip
- Perhitungan
- Grounds the body's claim that the detained population topped 73,000 in January 2026, used alongside the NOTUS year-end figure (68,000+, source above) to support the population roughly doubling over the same window the death rate climbed nearly sevenfold.
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[7] Physicians for Human Rights / ACLU / American Oversight — Deadly Failures: Preventable Deaths in U.S. Immigration Detention Terverifikasi
Deadly Failures: Preventable Deaths in U.S. Immigration Detention- Statistik
Independent medical experts found 49 of 52 deaths in ICE custody from Jan 1, 2017 through Dec 31, 2021 (95%) were preventable or possibly preventable with appropriate medical care; medical staff made incorrect or incomplete diagnoses in 88% of the deaths reviewed.- Kutipan
“Medical experts concluded that of the 52 deaths reported by ICE between January 1, 2017 and December 31, 2021, 49 deaths (95 percent) were preventable or possibly preventable if appropriate medical care had been provided.”
- Data sumber dari
- 2024-06-18
- Diakses
- 2026-07-03
- Verifikasi
- Kutipan diambil ulang secara independen dan dikonfirmasi kata demi kata terhadap sumber terkutip selama audit pendasaran kami.
- Perhitungan
- Grounds the body's claim that most 2017-2021 detention deaths were preventable with adequate care. This earlier independent review (52-death cohort, 14,500+ pages of records, outside medical-expert panel) is distinct in period and method from the JAMA FY2004-FY2026 mortality-rate study above; it is not used to adjust the headline rate, only to support the systemic-care-quality claim in the body.
- Independensi
- Joint report by three independent human-rights/government-oversight organizations, not ICE or DHS; distinct data source and period from the JAMA study and the news outlets above.