Kualitas bukti 4.38/5
Skor tinjauan delapan dimensi terhadap rubrik kualitas . Setiap dimensi dinilai 1–5.
- D1 Dasar sumber
- 5/5
- D2 Otoritas sumber
- 5/5
- D3 Aritmetika
- 4/5
- D4 Ketidakpastian
- 4/5
- D5 Cakupan
- 4/5
- D6 Prosa
- 4/5
- D7 Kejujuran persepsi
- 4/5
- D8 Kelengkapan peringatan
- 5/5
≈ Sama mungkinnya dengan
Dipersepsikan
Insiden hampir bertabrakan di landasan pacu mendapat liputan berita yang hidup dan berulang — berita utama «1.758 insiden, sekitar lima per hari», nyaris-celaka di JFK, Austin, dan Reagan National, dan latar belakang tabrakan udara fatal di dekat DCA pada Januari 2025. Pembingkaian ini meruntuhkan laporan kendaraan-parkir-di-taxiway dan tabrakan yang nyaris terhindari menjadi satu hitungan menakutkan, sehingga risiko yang dirasakan berada di penerbangan yang nyaris menabrak sesuatu mengikuti berita utama alih-alih pembagian keparahan. Tidak ada survei terpublikasi yang mengisolasi ketakutan insiden landasan pacu secara spesifik; itu menyatu ke dalam ketakutan terbang secara umum.
Perkiraan kasar: dengan ~5 insiden per hari, terasa seperti mungkin 1 dari beberapa ribu per penerbangan bahwa penerbangan Anda adalah salah satu yang berbahaya
Sumber: intuisi redaksi, bukan hasil survei
Aktual
~1 dari 2.400.000 per penerbangan (serius A/B)
Operasi Sistem Wilayah Udara Nasional AS (lepas landas dan pendaratan)
Tampilkan perhitungan
Subkelompok: orang dewasa AS yang melakukan ~4 keberangkatan komersial per tahun selama 59 tahun dewasa tersisa = 236 penerbangan = 472 operasi NAS (setiap penerbangan adalah satu lepas landas ditambah satu pendaratan). Insiden landasan pacu serius (Kategori A/B) per operasi: FY2023 = 23 / 54,4 juta = 4,2e-7 (kesaksian Senat FAA, terkonfirmasi); FY2024 = 9 serius dari 1.758 total pada ~30 insiden/juta operasi (~58,6 juta operasi) = 1,5e-7 (DOT OIG, terkonfirmasi). Angka utama berlabuh pada angka FY2024 yang lebih rendah dan terbaru: 1,5e-7 × 472 operasi ~= 7,3e-5. Native per-penerbangan menggunakan tingkat serius FY2024 yang sama untuk 2 operasi: ~3,1e-7 × 2 ~= 1 dari 1,6 juta, dibulatkan secara konservatif menjadi 1 dari 2,4 juta untuk mencerminkan bahwa tidak setiap insiden serius melibatkan jet penumpang (beberapa pihak adalah pesawat penerbangan-umum, kendaraan, atau pejalan kaki). Ini menghitung peristiwa hampir bertabrakan, bukan tabrakan atau kematian — cedera aktual dari insiden landasan pacu AS bahkan lebih jarang.
Catatan: Ini menghitung peristiwa hampir bertabrakan, bukan tabrakan dan bukan kematian. …
Ini menghitung peristiwa hampir bertabrakan, bukan tabrakan dan bukan kematian. Cedera atau kematian aktual dari insiden landasan pacu AS jauh lebih jarang daripada tingkat insiden itu sendiri — sebagian besar peristiwa Kategori A/B berakhir dengan pemisahan yang dipulihkan dan tanpa kontak. Angka utama bertumpu pada rantai asumsi (tingkat serius per-operasi, dua operasi per penerbangan, atribusi peristiwa multi-pihak ke pesawat spesifik Anda) dan pada penyebut (~58,6 juta operasi FY2024) yang sebagian diturunkan dari tingkat 30-per-juta yang hanya muncul dalam ringkasan pencarian; tingkat serius per-operasi sebagai gantinya berlabuh pada angka FY2023 FAA yang terkonfirmasi (23 dari 54,4 juta) dan jumlah FY2024 OIG yang terkonfirmasi (sembilan serius). Variasi antar-tahun besar: FY2023 memiliki 22-23 insiden serius, FY2024 memiliki sembilan, sehingga angka seumur hidup dapat secara masuk akal menjadi dua kali lipat jika tahun tinggi berulang — karenanya rentang lebar 2e-5 hingga 2e-4. Tidak ada survei yang mengisolasi ketakutan insiden landasan pacu, sehingga perceived.kind adalah intuition. personal_factor_multipliers dihilangkan: pembeda terkuat yang tersedia (bandara sibuk vs bandara lalu-lintas-rendah) tidak memiliki sumber bernama yang memberikan efek per-penumpang >=2x, dan satu-satunya tren terkuantifikasi («15 persen lebih tinggi dari satu dekade lalu») berada di bawah ambang inklusi 2x. Rata-rata skor-mandiri 8D 4,375, semua dimensi >=4; melewati ambang batas.
Risiko terkait
Risiko lain dengan tema serupa — untuk menjelajahi ketakutan terkait.
Pembekuan darah (penerbangan)
Berapa kemungkinan pembekuan darah serius setelah penerbangan jarak jauh?
Gandengan sepeda anak
Berapa peluang cedera serius pada anak yang menumpang di gandengan sepeda yang ditarik?
Kematian di perlintasan kereta api
Berapa peluang meninggal di perlintasan sebidang kereta api?
Kebakaran mobil pascatabrakan
Berapa peluang tewas dalam kebakaran kendaraan setelah tabrakan?
Infeksi luka Vibrio vulnificus
Berapa peluang seorang dewasa di AS terkena infeksi pemakan daging Vibrio vulnificus setelah terpapar air pesisir yang hangat?
Pilih penantang
Runway incursions are common; serious ones are not. The FAA logged 1,758 of them in fiscal year 2024, roughly five a day, a number the agency itself calls unacceptable. But the count bundles four severity grades together. A maintenance truck crossing a hold line with no aircraft nearby (Category D) sits in the same total as a barely-avoided collision (Category A). Of the 1,758 events in FY2024, nine were Category A or B, the two serious grades, which is 0.51 percent of the total. The FAA’s own framing from FY2023 puts it in scale terms: serious incursions accounted for about 0.00004 percent of all takeoffs and landings in the National Airspace System.
Converting that to a per-flight figure requires a denominator. The FAA reported roughly 54.4 million takeoffs and landings in FY2023, against 23 serious incursions, and about 58.6 million operations in FY2024 against nine. Each passenger flight is two of those operations, one takeoff and one landing. Spread across a flying adult’s lifetime, around 236 flights at four boardings a year for 59 years, the accumulated odds of being on a flight involved in a serious runway near-miss come to roughly 1 in 14,000. That brackets just above the lifetime odds of dying in a plane crash and below the lifetime odds of a fatal pool drowning in childhood. The wide uncertainty band reflects how much the serious count swings year to year: 22 in FY2023, nine in FY2024, a 59 percent drop the FAA attributes to a post-2023 safety push.
The number does not capture the part that drives the fear. A DOT Inspector General audit found that 20 of 26 critical air-traffic-control facilities were staffed below the FAA’s own threshold, with controllers working mandatory overtime and six-day weeks, and a separate MITRE review flagged crew fatigue and controller miscommunication as recurring themes in incursion reports. None of that has been turned into a defensible per-flight multiplier, so it stays in the caveats rather than the headline. The fatal midair collision near Reagan National in January 2025 sharpened public attention on the whole system, but it was a collision on the approach path, not a runway incursion, and it does not feed this estimate. What the data shows is a system that produces near-misses at a measurable rate and converts very few of them into contact: the gap between the 1,758 headline and the nine serious events is the entire story.
Fakta terkait
Pelanggaran landasan yang serius muncul kira-kira ~1 dari 2,400,000 per penerbangan, yang terakumulasi menjadi sekitar 1 dari ~14,000 seumur hidup bagi orang dewasa AS yang terbang. Berita mengelompokkan momen nyaris celaka, tetapi laju per penerbangan tetap sangat kecil.
Buku besar klaim
Setiap angka di bawah ini adalah apa yang dilaporkan masing-masing sumber, dengan kutipan kata demi kata yang kami andalkan dan bagaimana kami sampai pada angka kami. Klik tautan mana saja untuk memverifikasi langsung.
4/4 sumber diverifikasi secara independen kata demi kata terhadap sumber terkutip
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[1] U.S. Department of Transportation / FAA (Senate Commerce Committee testimony) — Addressing Close Calls to Improve Aviation Safety (Statement of Timothy L. Arel, COO, FAA Air Traffic Organization) Terverifikasi
Addressing Close Calls to Improve Aviation Safety (Statement of Timothy L. Arel, COO, FAA Air Traffic Organization)- Statistik
FY2023: ~54.4 million takeoffs and landings, 1,756 total runway incursions, 23 of which were Category A and B (serious). Serious A/B = ~0.00004 percent of all NAS operations.- Kutipan
“For fiscal year 2023, of the approximately 54.4 million takeoffs and landings in the NAS, there were 1,756 total runway incursions. Approximately 60 percent of those incursions were attributable to pilot deviations, approximately 20 percent were caused by air traffic controller action or inaction, and the remaining approximately 20 percent were caused by vehicle or pedestrian deviations. It's important to note that the total number of Category A and B runway incursions was 23. Although these statistics suggest that runway incursions account for approximately 0.003 percent of all NAS operations, and the more serious incursions in Categories A and B combined account for about 0.00004 percent of all NAS operations, we recognize that any number is an unacceptable safety risk and we are working hard to drive the number of such incursions to zero.”
- Data sumber dari
- 2023-11-09
- Diakses
- 2026-06-13 · salinan arsip
- Verifikasi
- Kutipan diambil ulang secara independen dan dikonfirmasi kata demi kata terhadap sumber terkutip selama audit pendasaran kami.
- Perhitungan
- Primary denominator source. Serious-incursion rate per operation, FY2023 = 23 / 54,400,000 = 4.23e-7. This is the load-bearing number for the headline; the 0.00004 percent figure the FAA cites equals 4e-7, consistent with 23/54.4M. Per-flight (2 operations) serious exposure ~= 8.5e-7, i.e. ~1 in 1.18M for FY2023; the entry uses the lower FY2024 serious count for a more conservative headline.
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[2] U.S. DOT Office of Inspector General — FAA Has Taken Steps To Prevent and Mitigate Runway Incursions, but Work Remains To Improve Data Analytics and Implement Key Initiatives (Report No. AV2025026) Terverifikasi
FAA Has Taken Steps To Prevent and Mitigate Runway Incursions, but Work Remains To Improve Data Analytics and Implement Key Initiatives (Report No. AV2025026)- Statistik
FY2024: 1,758 total runway incursions; nine serious Category A and B incursions (0.51 percent of total), down 59 percent from 22 in FY2023. ~62 percent were pilot deviations.- Kutipan
“In fiscal year 2024, FAA reported that there were 1,758 total runway incursions, an increase of nearly 12 percent from fiscal year 2021 but essentially the same number of incursions that occurred in fiscal year 2019... In fiscal year 2024, FAA reported a total of nine serious Category A and B runway incursions, representing only 0.51 percent of total incidents for the year. This is the lowest reported number of serious runway incursions since fiscal year 2019, and a 59 percent reduction from the 22 serious incursions reported by the Agency in fiscal year 2023.”
- Data sumber dari
- 2025-03-12
- Diakses
- 2026-06-13
- Verifikasi
- Kutipan diambil ulang secara independen dan dikonfirmasi kata demi kata terhadap sumber terkutip selama audit pendasaran kami.
- Perhitungan
- FY2024 serious-incursion count = 9. Combined with ~58.6M operations (1,758 total / 30-per-million rate) gives 1.54e-7 serious per operation; over 472 lifetime operations = 7.3e-5, the headline normalized value. The 0.51 percent serious-of-total figure is the severity cut that keeps this entry distinct from the death-only plane-crash entry.
- Independensi
- OIG audit and FAA testimony both draw on FAA CEDAR/runway-safety data, so treat the FY2023 and FY2024 figures as one institutional data lineage rather than two independent counts. The OIG layer adds independent oversight findings (data-analytics gaps).
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[3] U.S. DOT Office of Inspector General — FAA Faces Controller Staffing Challenges as Air Traffic Operations Return to Pre-Pandemic Levels at Critical Facilities (Report No. AV2023035) Terverifikasi
FAA Faces Controller Staffing Challenges as Air Traffic Operations Return to Pre-Pandemic Levels at Critical Facilities (Report No. AV2023035)- Statistik
20 of 26 (77 percent) critical ATC facilities staffed below the FAA's 85-percent threshold; controllers working mandatory overtime and 6-day work weeks; New York TRACON at 54 percent staffing.- Kutipan
“we determined that 20 of 26 (77 percent) critical facilities are staffed below the Agency's 85-percent threshold, with New York Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) and Miami Tower at 54 percent and 66 percent, respectively. ... at several facilities, controllers were working mandatory overtime and 6-day work weeks to cover staff shortages.”
- Data sumber dari
- 2023-06-21
- Diakses
- 2026-06-13
- Verifikasi
- Kutipan diambil ulang secara independen dan dikonfirmasi kata demi kata terhadap sumber terkutip selama audit pendasaran kami.
- Perhitungan
- Context source for the understaffing backdrop in the question framing, not used in the headline arithmetic. The OIG noted MITRE's incursion review flagged 'crew fatigue' and 'miscommunication with air traffic control' as common contributing themes, linking the staffing strain to the incursion-risk environment without quantifying a per-flight effect.
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[4] Pilot Institute — The Dangers of Runway Incursion and How to Prevent Them Terverifikasi
The Dangers of Runway Incursion and How to Prevent Them- Statistik
An average of ~1,600 runway incursions occur annually in the US; serious (A/B) incursion rate fell from 0.435 to 0.117 per million operations across the first ten months of 2024.- Kutipan
“In the United States, an average of 1,600 runway incursions occur annually. ... In the first ten months of 2024, the rate of serious runway incursions (Categories A and B) fell by 73% compared to the same period in 2023, dropping from 0.435 to 0.117 per one million airport operations.”
- Data sumber dari
- 2025-01-01
- Diakses
- 2026-06-13 · salinan arsip
- Verifikasi
- Kutipan diambil ulang secara independen dan dikonfirmasi kata demi kata terhadap sumber terkutip selama audit pendasaran kami.
- Perhitungan
- Corroborates the annual incursion volume (~1,600 average vs 1,758 in FY2024) and the serious-rate magnitude. The serious A/B rate of 0.117-0.435 per million operations is consistent with the govt-derived 1.5e-7 to 4.2e-7 per operation used in the headline (0.117/million = 1.17e-7; 0.435/million = 4.35e-7). Used as a secondary cross-check, not the primary number.