Kualitas bukti 4.63/5
Skor tinjauan delapan dimensi terhadap rubrik kualitas . Setiap dimensi dinilai 1–5.
- D1 Dasar sumber
- 4/5
- D2 Otoritas sumber
- 5/5
- D3 Aritmetika
- 5/5
- D4 Ketidakpastian
- 4/5
- D5 Cakupan
- 5/5
- D6 Prosa
- 5/5
- D7 Kejujuran persepsi
- 4/5
- D8 Kelengkapan peringatan
- 5/5
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Dipersepsikan
«Prajurit tewas dalam pertempuran» adalah salah satu citra paling hidup yang dimiliki warga sipil tentang perang, ditambatkan oleh film Perang Dunia II, penghitung korban berita kabel dari Irak dan Afghanistan, dan rekaman drone dari Ukraina. Kami belum menemukan survei berkualitas tinggi terbaru yang mengisolasi «ketakutan seorang prajurit tewas dalam pertempuran» sebagai pertanyaan tersendiri, sehingga sisi persepsi ditandai sebagai intuisi editorial alih-alih data jajak pendapat. Warga sipil di luar komunitas militer cenderung melebih-lebihkan laju kematian per penugasan (dipengaruhi oleh prior era Perang Dunia II dan Vietnam) atau meremehkannya (dipengaruhi oleh total korban AS yang relatif rendah pada tahun-tahun akhir Irak dan Afghanistan). Keluarga di dalam komunitas militer biasanya lebih terkalibrasi, karena laju dasar adalah sesuatu yang mereka dengar dibahas secara konkret.
Perkiraan kasar: bervariasi liar, dari ~1 dari 1.000 per penugasan hingga ~1 dari 10 per karier tergantung era dan unit
Sumber: intuisi redaksi, bukan hasil survei
Aktual
~7.053 kematian militer AS / ~1,9 juta anggota militer AS yang dikerahkan (perang pasca-9/11, 2001-2021)
Anggota militer AS yang dikerahkan ke Irak, Afghanistan, atau teater terkait di bawah OEF/OIF/OND, 2001-2021
Tampilkan perhitungan
Subkelompok referensi: seorang anggota militer AS aktif atau cadangan yang dikerahkan setidaknya sekali ke Irak, Afghanistan, atau teater terkait selama perang pasca-9/11 (Operation Enduring Freedom, Operation Iraqi Freedom, Operation New Dawn, 2001-2021). Costs of War Project Universitas Brown melaporkan lebih dari 7.053 kematian anggota militer AS di seluruh perang pasca-9/11; antara 1,9 dan 3 juta anggota militer bertugas di teater tersebut, dengan lebih dari separuhnya dikerahkan lebih dari sekali. Menggunakan ujung bawah penyebut anggota militer (1,9 juta) sebagai basis per orang menghasilkan 7.053 / 1.900.000 ≈ 0,00371, atau kira-kira 1 dari 270 selama seluruh periode perang pasca-9/11 per orang yang dikerahkan setidaknya sekali. Angka ini untuk semua kematian di teater (permusuhan + non-permusuhan); kematian hanya akibat permusuhan sekitar 5.300-5.400, yang menghasilkan laju hanya-permusuhan kira-kira 1 dari 350. Cakupan dinyatakan sebagai subgroup_lifetime karena ini adalah risiko per karier untuk subkelompok yang dikerahkan tertentu, bukan risiko seumur hidup populasi umum. Ini tidak dapat langsung dibandingkan dengan angka seumur-hidup-populasi di halaman Likelier lain — lihat regional_breakdown untuk bagaimana angka bergerak di antara era dan jenis unit.
Catatan: «Prajurit» bukanlah satu populasi tunggal. Seorang spesialis logistik di pangkal…
«Prajurit» bukanlah satu populasi tunggal. Seorang spesialis logistik di pangkalan udara AS di Jerman pada 2018, seorang prajurit senapan infanteri di Fallujah pada 2004, seorang awak tank di Bakhmut pada 2024, dan seorang Marinir di Iwo Jima pada 1945 menghadapi risiko yang berbeda lebih dari dua tingkat magnitudo. Angka utama spesifik untuk anggota militer AS yang dikerahkan di bawah OEF/OIF/OND selama perang pasca-9/11 dan tidak boleh digeneralisasi menjadi «prajurit mana pun dalam perang mana pun». Dalam subkelompok itu, risiko terkonsentrasi menurut tahun (2004-2007 di Irak, 2009-2011 di Afghanistan), menurut cabang (Angkatan Darat dan Korps Marinir lebih tinggi daripada Angkatan Laut dan Angkatan Udara), dan menurut MOS (satuan tempur lebih tinggi daripada peran pendukung). Angka ini juga mencakup semua kematian di teater (aksi permusuhan, kecelakaan kendaraan, penyakit, bunuh diri di teater). Angka ini tidak mencakup bunuh diri pasca-penugasan — proyek Costs of War mencatat bahwa kematian bunuh diri veteran dan personel aktif pasca-9/11 telah melampaui kematian tempur kira-kira dengan faktor empat — dan kematian pasca-penugasan akibat penyakit kronis yang disebabkan oleh perang, yang dihitung secara terpisah dalam statistik kesehatan veteran.
Bagaimana risiko bervariasi
Angka utama merata-ratakan situasi yang sangat berbeda. Berikut bagaimana probabilitas bervariasi berdasarkan skenario atau konteks:
1 dari 270
Headline figure. 7,053 deaths / 1.9M unique deployers. All in-theater causes.
1 dari 352
Approximately 5,400 hostile deaths / 1.9M deployers. Excludes accidents, illness, suicide in theater.
1 dari 100 · 1,0%
Order-of-magnitude estimate. Combat arms soldiers in forward operating roles during 2004-2007 Iraq and 2009-2011 Afghanistan saw per-deployment fatality rates several times higher than the all-forces average. Exact subgroup rates are not publicly broken out by MOS.
1 dari 426
7,053 deaths / ~3.0M deployment-tours ≈ 1 in 425 per tour. Low end of uncertainty band.
1 dari 40 · 2,5%
Approximately 407,000 US military deaths across ~16.1 million service members who served in WWII, or about 1 in 40 per career.
1 dari 149
Approximately 58,200 US military deaths across ~8.7 million Vietnam-era service members (~2.7 million in-country). Order-of-magnitude figure; exact per-deployment rate depended heavily on MOS and unit.
1 dari 10 · 10%
Estimated. Mediazona/Meduza statistical analyses using probate-registry data put cumulative Russian military deaths at ~165,000+ by end of 2024 against a rotating force on the order of 1-1.5 million. Numbers are contested and evolving; included only as an order-of-magnitude anchor for a high-intensity conflict.
Panjang dan gradasi warna batang memeringkat skenario ini satu sama lain, bukan terhadap risiko lain. Peluang pastinya ditampilkan di samping masing-masing.
Risiko terkait
Risiko lain dengan tema serupa — untuk menjelajahi ketakutan terkait.
Korban sipil perang
Berapa probabilitas warga sipil tewas atau terluka berat dalam konflik skala Ukraina selama lima tahun?
Kematian karier pertambangan
Berapa peluang meninggal saat bekerja sebagai penambang sepanjang karier penuh?
Kehancuran finansial taruhan olahraga
Berapa peluang kerugian finansial parah dari taruhan olahraga reguler?
Pencabutan visa pelajar
Berapa peluang seorang mahasiswa internasional di AS dicabut visanya atau dihentikan catatan SEVIS-nya selama programnya?
Prajurit garis depan
Berapa probabilitas prajurit infanteri garis depan tewas atau terluka berat selama lima tahun dalam konflik skala Ukraina?
Kematian pilot tempur
Berapa peluang pilot tempur militer AS meninggal akibat kecelakaan penerbangan atau pertempuran sepanjang karier?
Pilih penantang
The useful question is not “what are the odds a soldier dies in combat” but “which soldier, in which war, in which job, in which year.” A US service member in 2020 sitting at a Pentagon desk and a Red Army rifleman in Stalingrad in 1942 are both technically soldiers, and their per-year death probabilities differ by orders of magnitude. The headline figure on this page fixes one specific reference subgroup — US service members who deployed to Iraq, Afghanistan, or related post-9/11 theaters between 2001 and 2021 — because that population has the best-documented casualty data of any modern war and is the one most readers actually have in mind when they think “the war”.
The numbers for that reference group come out to roughly 1 in 270 across an entire post-9/11 war career: about 7,053 US military deaths divided by approximately 1.9 million unique service members who deployed at least once. Hostile-only deaths (killed in action plus died of wounds) are closer to 1 in 350. Averaged across the ~3 million deployment tours those same service members logged, the per-tour death rate is closer to 1 in 425. That is meaningfully higher than most civilian categories on this site — roughly 220 times the lifetime risk of dying in a plane crash for a regular flyer (about 1 in 58,000) — but also far below the priors set by older wars: the US WWII cohort lost roughly 1 in 40 of the 16 million people who served, a rate almost seven times higher than the post-9/11 figure.
The within-subgroup heterogeneity is the real story. Combat arms soldiers in forward roles during 2004-2007 Iraq or 2009-2011 Afghanistan faced per-deployment rates several times higher than the all-forces average; support roles at secure bases faced rates much lower. Era matters more than anything else: Russian forces in Ukraine have sustained an estimated ~165,000 deaths from a force on the order of 1-1.5 million across 2022-2024, an order of magnitude above the US post-9/11 figure. The “1 in 270” headline is a scale marker for one specific well-measured modern conflict. It is not a forecast for any future one.
Fakta terkait
Sekitar 1 dari 270 prajurit AS yang dikerahkan ke Irak atau Afghanistan setelah 2001 tewas di medan operasi. Itu jauh di bawah angka 1-dari-40 kohort Perang Dunia II, dan jauh di bawah kerugian Rusia saat ini di Ukraina. "Prajurit" bukan satu populasi.
Buku besar klaim
Setiap angka di bawah ini adalah apa yang dilaporkan masing-masing sumber, dengan kutipan kata demi kata yang kami andalkan dan bagaimana kami sampai pada angka kami. Klik tautan mana saja untuk memverifikasi langsung.
2/3 sumber diverifikasi secara independen kata demi kata terhadap sumber terkutip
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[1] Costs of War Project, Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, Brown University — U.S. Military, Veterans, Contractors & Allies Terverifikasi
U.S. Military, Veterans, Contractors & Allies- Statistik
Over 7,053 US service members died in the post-9/11 wars; between 1.9 and 3 million US service members served in military operations in Afghanistan, Iraq, and related theaters, with over half deploying more than once.- Kutipan
“"Over 7,053 U.S. service members died in the post-9/11 wars. Between 1.9 and 3 million U.S. service members served in military operations in Afghanistan, Iraq, and related theaters, and over half of them deployed more than once." ”
- Data sumber dari
- 2023-09-01
- Diakses
- 2026-04-11 · salinan arsip
- Verifikasi
- Kutipan diambil ulang secara independen dan dikonfirmasi kata demi kata terhadap sumber terkutip selama audit pendasaran kami.
- Perhitungan
- The Costs of War Project aggregates DoD DCAS casualty totals with VA and Census deployment counts. Dividing 7,053 total US service member deaths by 1.9 million unique deployed service members ≈ 3.71e-3, or roughly 1 in 270 per person who deployed during the post-9/11 wars. Using the upper Costs of War servicemember figure of 3 million (which counts more peripheral deployments) pushes the denominator up and the rate down to roughly 1 in 425. The 1.9M-denominator figure is used as the headline because it matches the Institute of Medicine (NCBI source below) count of unique OEF/OIF deployers and because it is the population most readers would think of when they picture "a soldier who went to the war". Per-tour (not per-person) rates are lower still, because service members averaged ~1.6 deployments each: roughly 7,053 / 3,000,000 tours ≈ 1 in 425 per deployment.
- Independensi
- Costs of War draws its US military death count from the DoD Defense Casualty Analysis System (DCAS), which is the same upstream source the IOM/NCBI volume below used. Treat the two sources as consistent rather than fully independent on the death-count side; they are independent on the servicemember-count side, which Costs of War derives from Census/VA data while the IOM derived it from DoD personnel tempo reports.
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[2] Institute of Medicine (National Academies Press), National Center for Biotechnology Information bookshelf — Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom: Demographics and Impact (in Returning Home from Iraq and Afghanistan) Terverifikasi
Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom: Demographics and Impact (in Returning Home from Iraq and Afghanistan)- Statistik
Over 1.9 million US military personnel deployed in 3 million tours of duty of more than 30 days under OEF/OIF; as of November 24, 2009, 5,286 US troops had died and 36,021 had been wounded.- Kutipan
“"Since the beginning of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq in 2001, over 1.9 million US military personnel have been deployed in 3 million tours of duty lasting more than 30 days as part of Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) or Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF)." ”
- Data sumber dari
- 2013-03-12
- Diakses
- 2026-04-11 · salinan arsip
- Verifikasi
- Kutipan diambil ulang secara independen dan dikonfirmasi kata demi kata terhadap sumber terkutip selama audit pendasaran kami.
- Perhitungan
- The IOM volume is the peer-reviewed benchmark for OEF/OIF deployment totals and gives the 1.9 million unique-deployer figure used in the normalized calculation. Its November 2009 snapshot of 5,286 deaths across roughly the first eight years of the wars implies an average of ~660 US military deaths per year during the peak of OEF/OIF, or roughly 1 hostile+non-hostile death per ~360 deployed service members at that point in the conflict — consistent with the 1-in-270 figure after the wars continued through 2021 and the cumulative death count reached ~7,053.
- Independensi
- The IOM’s casualty total is drawn directly from DoD reporting, so it is not independent of DCAS on the death-count pipeline. Cited here primarily for the peer-reviewed deployment-count denominator.
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[3] Mediazona, in collaboration with BBC Russian Service — Russian losses in the war with Ukraine — Mediazona verified count
Russian losses in the war with Ukraine — Mediazona verified count- Statistik
200,186 Russian military deaths confirmed by name as of February 2026; methodology captures estimated 45-65% of actual deaths- Kutipan
“"On 24 February 2026, the fourth anniversary, the total exceeded 200,000 entries: 200,186 names were published." ”
- Data sumber dari
- 2026-02-24
- Diakses
- 2026-04-12 · salinan arsip
- Perhitungan
- Provides the formal citation for the Russian casualty estimate referenced in the regional_breakdown. Each entry requires verification from official Russian sources, obituaries, social media posts with photograph matching, or cemetery photographs. Automated de-duplication. The 45-65% capture rate estimate comes from cross-referencing with Probate Registry excess male mortality analysis.
- Independensi
- Independent of US DoD DCAS and Brown University Costs of War — different conflict, different methodology (open-source intelligence vs official military records).