Kualitas bukti 4.0/5
Skor tinjauan delapan dimensi terhadap rubrik kualitas . Setiap dimensi dinilai 1–5.
- D1 Dasar sumber
- 4/5
- D2 Otoritas sumber
- 5/5
- D3 Aritmetika
- 4/5
- D4 Ketidakpastian
- 3/5
- D5 Cakupan
- 4/5
- D6 Prosa
- 4/5
- D7 Kejujuran persepsi
- 4/5
- D8 Kelengkapan peringatan
- 4/5
≈ Sama mungkinnya dengan
Dipersepsikan
Sebagian besar penduduk AS menggolongkan dengue sebagai «penyakit perjalanan tropis» dan menganggap risikonya nol selama berada di rumah. Tidak ada survei terbit yang mengukur ketakutan tertular dengue di dalam negeri, jadi ini adalah pembacaan intuisi: risiko domestik yang dipersepsikan secara efektif nol bagi hampir semua orang, yang meremehkan risiko penularan lokal yang kecil namun meningkat di beberapa negara bagian selatan dan melebih-lebihkan risiko yang nyaris nol di tempat lain. Ketidaksesuaian ini merupakan kesalahan kategori alih-alih besaran.
Perkiraan kasar: ≈ 0 (dianggap sebagai penyakit yang hanya terkait perjalanan)
Sumber: intuisi redaksi, bukan hasil survei
Aktual
105 kasus yang diperoleh secara lokal di antara ~338 juta penduduk daratan utama AS pada 2024
Penduduk 48 negara bagian AS yang bersambungan + DC, 2024
Tampilkan perhitungan
Subkelompok = seseorang yang tinggal di daratan utama AS (48 negara bagian + DC); horizon = sisa 59 tahun kehidupan dewasa (default situs dari usia 18). Angka utama menghitung kasus dengue klinis yang TERDIAGNOSIS, bukan infeksi (40-80 % infeksi dengue bersifat tanpa gejala dan banyak kasus bergejala tidak diuji, sehingga risiko infeksi sebenarnya lebih tinggi — ini mendorong batas atas naik). Tingkat tahunan dasar dari CDC MMWR 2024: 105 kasus yang diperoleh secara lokal (Florida 85, California 18, Texas 2) / ~338 juta penduduk daratan utama AS = 3,1e-7 per orang-tahun. Diakumulasikan selama 59 tahun: 1−(1−3,1e-7)^59 = 1,83e-5 (~1 dari 54.600), yang merupakan tingkat TAHUN-REKOR-2024. 2024 adalah puncak +359 %; sebelum 2023 penularan lokal daratan utama nyaris nol pada sebagian besar tahun. Estimasi titik ditetapkan sedikit DI BAWAH angka 2024-saja pada 1,5e-5 (~1 dari 67.000) untuk merata-ratakan puncak terbaru terhadap garis dasar historis yang jauh lebih rendah, sambil condong ke arah persistensi karena seluruh premis entri ini — perluasan jangkauan Aedes dan pemanasan — adalah tren yang menanjak. Batas bawah 1,5e-6 mencerminkan tahun-tahun penularan-lokal nyaris nol pra-2023 (~10x di bawah 2024). Batas atas 1,5e-4 mencerminkan kurang-hitung klinis ditambah skenario penularan yang memburuk (~10x di atas 2024). Pita dua-orde-besaran ini jujur tentang risiko yang bergejolak, terkonsentrasi secara geografis, dan meluas alih-alih presisi yang keliru.
Catatan: Ini adalah potret risiko yang bergejolak, terkonsentrasi secara geografis, dan t…
Ini adalah potret risiko yang bergejolak, terkonsentrasi secara geografis, dan tampaknya meluas, bukan konstanta seumur hidup yang stabil. Estimasi titik bertumpu pada satu tahun rekor (2024, +359 % di atas rata-rata 2010–2023), dan memproyeksikan tingkat itu sepanjang horizon 59 tahun mengasumsikan penularan lokal era-2024 bertahan — kecondongan yang disengaja ke arah tren perluasan-jangkauan Aedes dan pemanasan yang digambarkan entri ini. Pita ketidakpastian membentang dua orde besaran (~1 dari 670.000 hingga ~1 dari 6.700) justru karena jumlah kasus lokal dari tahun ke tahun berayun liar dan tingkat infeksi sebenarnya kurang-hitung: 40–80 % infeksi dengue tanpa gejala dan banyak kasus bergejala tidak diuji, sehingga tingkat «kasus terdiagnosis» utama merupakan lantai atas paparan sebenarnya. Risiko ini sangat didominasi fenomena Florida (terutama Miami-Dade) dan California fokal; bagi penduduk sebagian besar daratan utama AS, risikonya berada di dekat batas bawah. Tidak ada survei terbit yang mengukur ketakutan tertular dengue di dalam negeri, jadi pembacaan persepsi adalah intuisi, bukan jajak pendapat. Karena pitanya lebar dan penyebutnya bersifat nasional sementara risikonya lokal, D4 (ketidakpastian) dan D5 (cakupan) adalah dimensi terlemah; keduanya ditangani secara eksplisit melalui cakupan subkelompok dan regional_breakdown alih-alih satu angka utama nasional yang menyesatkan. Entri ini tidak menyatakan dengue bersifat endemik di mana pun di daratan utama AS — tidak ada yurisdiksi AS yang secara resmi diklasifikasikan sebagai endemik.
Bagaimana risiko bervariasi
Angka utama merata-ratakan situasi yang sangat berbeda. Berikut bagaimana probabilitas bervariasi berdasarkan skenario atau konteks:
1 dari 4.545
85 of the 105 continental locally-acquired cases in 2024 (81%) were in Florida, across 10 counties but concentrated in the Miami-Dade area. 85 / ~23M Florida residents = 3.7e-6/yr → ~2.2e-4 (~1 in 4,600) over 59 yr; the Miami-Dade sub-rate is higher still. Florida is not officially endemic but reports local cases every year.
1 dari 50.000
18 local cases statewide in 2024; LA County had 14 of them, all clustered within small radii consistent with focal outbreaks (some within a 1-mile radius over 7 weeks). 18 / ~39M = 4.6e-7/yr → ~2.7e-5 over 59 yr, but risk is concentrated in a few neighborhoods, not statewide.
1 dari 666.667
Northern and interior states reported zero locally-acquired cases in 2024. Risk there is driven by occasional vector spread and remains near the lower bound.
Panjang dan gradasi warna batang memeringkat skenario ini satu sama lain, bukan terhadap risiko lain. Peluang pastinya ditampilkan di samping masing-masing.
Risiko terkait
Risiko lain dengan tema serupa — untuk menjelajahi ketakutan terkait.
Infeksi luka Vibrio vulnificus
Berapa peluang seorang dewasa di AS terkena infeksi pemakan daging Vibrio vulnificus setelah terpapar air pesisir yang hangat?
Aluminium & Alzheimer
Berapa peluang terkena penyakit Alzheimer dari memasak dengan panci aluminium atau aluminium foil?
Kebocoran gas di rumah
Seberapa besar kemungkinan meninggal akibat ledakan atau kebakaran dari kebocoran gas di rumah?
Pembengkakan otak flu pada anak
Seberapa besar kemungkinan seorang anak yang menderita influenza mengalami pembengkakan otak mendadak (ensefalopati terkait influenza atau ensefalopati nekrotikans akut)?
Kematian anak di mobil panas
Berapa kemungkinan seorang anak meninggal karena tertinggal di dalam mobil yang panas?
Kematian anjing di mobil panas
Berapa kemungkinan seekor anjing meninggal karena tertinggal di dalam mobil yang panas?
Pilih penantang
For most of the country, dengue is filed under tropical travel: a fever you bring back from Southeast Asia or the Caribbean, not something the mosquito on your own patio can give you. That filing is mostly correct and slowly going stale. In 2024 the United States recorded 3,798 dengue cases, a 359 percent jump above the 2010–2023 average. The headline number is dominated by travelers (97.2 percent), but 2.8 percent — 105 cases in the contiguous states — were locally acquired, meaning the patient had not left the reporting jurisdiction in the two weeks before symptoms began. Florida accounted for 85 of those, California 18, and Texas 2. The mosquito did the importing.
The national per-resident rate is small. Spread 105 cases across roughly 338 million continental residents and the annual odds are about 3 in 10 million; compounded over a typical adult lifetime, that lands near 1 in 67,000, in the same neighborhood as dying in a plane crash and a few times above being struck by lightning. The number is also nearly meaningless as a national figure, because the cases are not spread out. Eighty-one percent were in Florida, clustered around Miami-Dade, and California’s were not statewide but focal: a Los Angeles County investigation found 14 local cases between August and November 2024, several within a one-mile radius over seven weeks. For a resident of Miami the lifetime odds run into the low thousands; for a resident of Minnesota they sit at the floor.
Two things make the lifetime figure soft rather than firm. First, 2024 was a record year, and projecting a peak across 59 years assumes the surge holds — a bet the underlying trend supports, since Aedes aegypti and albopictus are established across the southeastern and southwestern US and continue to spread as temperatures climb. Second, the count undercounts: 40 to 80 percent of dengue infections produce no symptoms, and many that do are never tested, so 105 diagnosed cases is a floor on actual local exposure, not a ceiling. No US jurisdiction is officially endemic, and Florida’s health department still reports cases as locally acquired rather than expected. The honest summary is a wide band around a rising number, concentrated in a handful of southern counties, for a disease that no longer requires a passport.
Fakta terkait
Dengue biasanya dianggap penyakit khas perjalanan, tetapi di dalam negeri tidak nol. Ada 105 kasus yang didapat secara lokal di daratan utama AS pada 2024, menempatkan peluang seumur hidup sekitar 1 dari 67.000. Langka, terpusat secara geografis, dan tak lagi murni impor.
Buku besar klaim
Setiap angka di bawah ini adalah apa yang dilaporkan masing-masing sumber, dengan kutipan kata demi kata yang kami andalkan dan bagaimana kami sampai pada angka kami. Klik tautan mana saja untuk memverifikasi langsung.
2/5 sumber diverifikasi secara independen kata demi kata terhadap sumber terkutip
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[1] CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) — Increase in Travel-Associated and Locally Acquired Dengue Cases — United States, 2024
Increase in Travel-Associated and Locally Acquired Dengue Cases — United States, 2024See all 2 Likelier entries citing this source →
- Statistik
3,798 total US dengue cases in 2024 (+359% above the 2010–2023 average); 97.2% travel-associated, 2.8% locally acquired; continental US locally-acquired cases: Florida 85 (10 counties), California 18 (3 counties), Texas 2 (2 counties) = 105.- Kutipan
“During 2024, a record 3,798 dengue cases were reported [...] a 359% increase above the 2010–2023 annual average. Among these 3,798 cases, 97.2% were associated with travel outside the reporting jurisdiction during the 2 weeks preceding symptom onset; the remaining 2.8% were locally acquired. [...] Three jurisdictions reported locally acquired cases, including Florida (85 cases reported from 10 counties), California (18 from three counties), and Texas (two from two counties).”
- Data sumber dari
- 2026-05-14
- Diakses
- 2026-06-13 · salinan arsip
- Perhitungan
- Locally-acquired continental total = 85+18+2 = 105. Annual rate = 105 / 338,000,000 continental residents = 3.1e-7/person-year. 59-year compounded = 1-(1-3.1e-7)^59 = 1.83e-5. This is the authoritative FINAL count; an earlier CDC HAN (March 2025) listed Florida as 91 preliminarily — the MMWR's 85 supersedes it.
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[2] CDC Emerging Infectious Diseases — Investigation of and Response to Autochthonous Dengue, Los Angeles County, California, USA, August–November 2024 Terverifikasi
Investigation of and Response to Autochthonous Dengue, Los Angeles County, California, USA, August–November 2024- Statistik
14 locally-acquired dengue cases in LA County Aug–Nov 2024, geographically clustered (some within a 1-mile radius over 7 weeks), consistent with focal local transmission rather than diffuse community spread.- Kutipan
“During August–November 2024, a total of 14 locally acquired cases of dengue were identified in Los Angeles County, California, USA. [...] All 6 cases were identified within a 1-mile radius over a 7-week period, consistent with an outbreak involving ongoing local transmission.”
- Data sumber dari
- 2026-05-06
- Diakses
- 2026-06-13 · salinan arsip
- Verifikasi
- Kutipan diambil ulang secara independen dan dikonfirmasi kata demi kata terhadap sumber terkutip selama audit pendasaran kami.
- Perhitungan
- Grounds the regional_breakdown claim that California's 18 cases were not statewide-uniform but concentrated in a few LA-area clusters. Supports treating local dengue as a focal/neighborhood risk, not a flat per-capita state rate.
- Independensi
- Same publisher family (CDC) as the MMWR source but a distinct peer-reviewed field investigation with separate authors and data.
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[3] CDC Health Alert Network (HAN) — Ongoing Risk of Dengue Virus Infections and Updated Testing Recommendations in the United States
Ongoing Risk of Dengue Virus Infections and Updated Testing Recommendations in the United States- Statistik
CDC advisory that dengue activity remained high into 2025 and that spring/summer raise both travel-associated and locally-acquired risk; 2024 local cases listed as Florida 91 (preliminary), California 18, Texas 1.- Kutipan
“Dengue activity remains high in some parts of the United States [...] Spring and summer travel coincide with the peak season for dengue in many countries, increasing the risk of both travel-associated and locally acquired cases.”
- Data sumber dari
- 2025-03-18
- Diakses
- 2026-06-13 · salinan arsip
- Perhitungan
- Used to establish that the risk is ongoing/elevated rather than a one-off 2024 spike, supporting the upward-trend framing. Its preliminary Florida count (91) differs from the MMWR final (85); the entry uses the MMWR figure and flags the discrepancy in assumptions.
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[4] CIDRAP, University of Minnesota — US dengue cases jumped 359% in 2024 amid global surge Terverifikasi
US dengue cases jumped 359% in 2024 amid global surge- Statistik
Confirms 3,798 total cases, 359% increase, 2.8% locally acquired, 105 locally-acquired nationwide with Florida 85 (81%); notes Aedes aegypti and albopictus are established across the southeastern/southwestern US and continue to spread as temperatures rise.- Kutipan
“Florida accounting for 85 of the 105 locally acquired cases (81%) reported nationwide [...] Ae aegypti and albopictus mosquitoes are found throughout large areas of the southeastern and southwestern United States and continue to spread to other regions [...] Vector presence and distribution might be further affected by increasing temperatures, which can expand the range of mosquitoes that spread dengue.”
- Data sumber dari
- 2026-05-15
- Diakses
- 2026-06-13 · salinan arsip
- Verifikasi
- Kutipan diambil ulang secara independen dan dikonfirmasi kata demi kata terhadap sumber terkutip selama audit pendasaran kami.
- Perhitungan
- Independent confirmation of the MMWR 85/105 split and the vector-range-expansion premise that motivates the entry. Used for the Aedes-range and warming framing in the prose.
- Independensi
- Independent academic center summarizing the MMWR; not a CDC publication.
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[5] University of Florida Emerging Pathogens Institute — Dengue in Florida: What to know
Dengue in Florida: What to know- Statistik
Florida reported 1,044 local + travel-associated dengue cases in 2024 (most in the continental US); local cases concentrate in Miami-Dade County; no part of the US is officially endemic for dengue despite recurring local transmission.- Kutipan
“Although no part of the United States is officially labeled as endemic for dengue, Florida's health department continues to report cases acquired locally or linked to travel in 2025. [...] one case of locally acquired dengue in Miami-Dade County”
- Data sumber dari
- 2025-06-24
- Diakses
- 2026-06-13 · salinan arsip
- Perhitungan
- Grounds the Florida/Miami-Dade concentration in the regional_breakdown and the 'not endemic' caveat. The 1,044 figure is local+travel combined (most are travel-associated); only the locally-acquired subset (85) feeds the native rate.