Kualitas bukti 3.75/5
Skor tinjauan delapan dimensi terhadap rubrik kualitas . Setiap dimensi dinilai 1–5.
- D1 Dasar sumber
- 3/5
- D2 Otoritas sumber
- 4/5
- D3 Aritmetika
- 5/5
- D4 Ketidakpastian
- 3/5
- D5 Cakupan
- 4/5
- D6 Prosa
- 4/5
- D7 Kejujuran persepsi
- 3/5
- D8 Kelengkapan peringatan
- 4/5
≈ Sama mungkinnya dengan
Dipersepsikan
Ranjau darat dan amunisi yang tidak meledak menempati titik buta persepsi yang aneh: dipahami secara luas sebagai menghancurkan saat ditemui, tetapi diarsipkan sebagai masalah «tempat lain dan era lain» oleh sebagian besar orang di luar wilayah terdampak. Perjanjian Ottawa, yang ditandatangani pada 1997, menciptakan kesan bahwa masalah ini sedang diselesaikan. Kenyataannya tidak. Jumlah korban tahunan meningkat tajam sejak 2015, didorong oleh konflik-konflik baru di Myanmar, Suriah, Ukraina, dan Yaman, serta oleh keberadaan yang keras kepala dari amunisi yang ditanam puluhan tahun lalu di Kamboja, Laos, dan Afghanistan.
Perkiraan kasar: kebanyakan orang di negara yang tidak terdampak akan menebak nyaris nol; masalah ini dipersepsikan sebagai historis alih-alih masih berlangsung
Sumber: intuisi redaksi, bukan hasil survei
Aktual
~5.757 korban per tahun secara global (2023, Landmine Monitor)
orang dewasa global
Tampilkan perhitungan
Laporan Landmine Monitor 2024 mendokumentasikan 5.757 korban (terbunuh dan terluka) akibat ranjau dan sisa-sisa bahan peledak perang pada 2023. Laporan 2025 mencatat 6.279 korban pada 2024. Menggunakan angka 2023 sebagai perkiraan sentral: tingkat tahunan = 5.757 / 5.000.000.000 = 1,15 × 10⁻⁶. Diakumulasi selama 59 tahun: 1 − (1 − 1,15e-6)^59 ≈ 6,79 × 10⁻⁵, yaitu kira-kira 1 dari 14.700. Pita ketidakpastian menggunakan batas bawah ~4.000 korban/tahun (baseline pra-2020, rendah: 4,72e-5) dan batas atas ~12.000/tahun yang mencerminkan skenario eskalasi parah di Myanmar, Ukraina, dan Sahel (tinggi: 1,42e-4; rasio ~3x). Mengingat tren kenaikan tajam sejak 2015 dan berlanjutnya penggunaan baru oleh non-penandatangan, ekor atas mewakili jalur eskalasi yang masuk akal.
Catatan: Risiko sangat terkonsentrasi di sejumlah kecil negara yang terdampak konflik dan…
Risiko sangat terkonsentrasi di sejumlah kecil negara yang terdampak konflik dan pascakonflik. Myanmar, Suriah, Ukraina, Afghanistan, Kamboja, Laos, dan Yaman menyumbang sebagian besar korban global. Bagi penduduk negara yang tidak pernah mengalami kontaminasi ranjau yang signifikan, risiko pribadi praktis nol. Angka korban mencakup baik kematian maupun cedera — kira-kira sepertiga korban yang tercatat berakibat fatal (1.983 kematian dari 5.757 pada 2023). Angka-angka itu juga kemungkinan menghitung kurang jumlah korban sebenarnya, karena banyak insiden di zona konflik aktif tidak dilaporkan. Anak-anak terwakili secara tidak proporsional di antara korban karena mereka lebih kecil kemungkinannya mengenali amunisi dan lebih besar kemungkinannya memungut benda asing.
Bagaimana risiko bervariasi
Angka utama merata-ratakan situasi yang sangat berbeda. Berikut bagaimana probabilitas bervariasi berdasarkan skenario atau konteks:
1 dari 526
2,029 casualties in 2024 alone; highest per-capita mine casualty rate in the world. The civil war has massively expanded mine use since 2021.
1 dari 6.667
Legacy contamination from decades-old conflicts; casualties occur primarily among rural agricultural workers and children.
1 dari 1.000.000.000
Effectively zero risk; sporadic incidents involve historical ordnance from World Wars discovered during construction.
Panjang dan gradasi warna batang memeringkat skenario ini satu sama lain, bukan terhadap risiko lain. Peluang pastinya ditampilkan di samping masing-masing.
Risiko terkait
Risiko lain dengan tema serupa — untuk menjelajahi ketakutan terkait.
Kematian dalam tahanan ICE
Jika Anda ditahan dalam tahanan imigrasi AS (ICE), berapa peluang Anda meninggal sebelum dibebaskan?
Hewan dalam transportasi
Berapa kemungkinan hewan peliharaan mati selama transportasi kargo udara?
Korban sipil perang
Berapa probabilitas warga sipil tewas atau terluka berat dalam konflik skala Ukraina selama lima tahun?
Kematian karier pertambangan
Berapa peluang meninggal saat bekerja sebagai penambang sepanjang karier penuh?
Pilih penantang
Landmines and unexploded ordnance killed or injured at least 5,757 people in 2023 and 6,279 in 2024 — the highest annual totals in years, driven primarily by the civil war in Myanmar, continued conflict in Syria and Ukraine, and the stubborn persistence of ordnance laid decades ago across Southeast Asia and Central Asia. The Landmine Monitor, published annually by the International Campaign to Ban Landmines (1997 Nobel Peace Prize co-laureate), is the authoritative global tracker. Its 2024 and 2025 reports document a clear upward trend: casualties have risen sharply since 2015, reversing years of post-Ottawa Treaty progress. At the 2023 rate, the average global adult lifetime probability of becoming a landmine casualty is roughly 1 in 14,700 — comparable to the lifetime risk of dying in a house fire for a US adult.
The perception gap is substantial. In countries without mine contamination, the issue is filed under “solved problems” or “distant conflicts.” The Ottawa Treaty’s success in stigmatizing antipersonnel mines created a narrative of progress that the data no longer supports. A total of 164 countries have joined the treaty, including every NATO member except the United States — leaving more than 30 states outside it, among them Russia and Myanmar, both of which have continued using antipersonnel mines in active conflicts (Russia in Ukraine since its 2022 invasion, Myanmar’s junta continuously since 1999). New contamination from active conflicts adds to the legacy burden: Laos alone contains an estimated 8 million to 80 million unexploded cluster submunitions from a bombing campaign that ended in 1973. Cambodia, more than 40 years after the Khmer Rouge, still records landmine casualties every year — 32 in 2023, down 22 percent from 41 the year before.
Civilians make up 84% of all landmine casualties, with children comprising 37% of casualties where the age was recorded. The typical casualty is a farmer, herder, or child in a rural area who encounters ordnance while going about daily life — not a combatant on a battlefield. This makes landmine contamination one of the clearest examples of a risk that persists for decades after the conflict that created it, harming populations that had no role in the original military decision to deploy the weapon.
Fakta terkait
Ranjau darat dan amunisi yang belum meledak menyebabkan sekitar 5.757 korban pada 2023, kira-kira 1 dari 14.700 sepanjang hidup dewasa global. Ancaman ini dianggap peninggalan perang masa lalu, tetapi korbannya masih berjatuhan setiap tahun dan terus berlanjut.
Buku besar klaim
Setiap angka di bawah ini adalah apa yang dilaporkan masing-masing sumber, dengan kutipan kata demi kata yang kami andalkan dan bagaimana kami sampai pada angka kami. Klik tautan mana saja untuk memverifikasi langsung.
4/4 sumber diverifikasi secara independen kata demi kata terhadap sumber terkutip
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[1] Human Rights Watch (reporting Landmine Monitor 2024 findings) — Landmines: New Casualties Show Need to Support Treaty Ban Terverifikasi
Landmines: New Casualties Show Need to Support Treaty Ban- Statistik
5,757 new casualties from landmines and explosive remnants of war were recorded in 2023 (including 1,983 deaths), with civilians accounting for 84% of casualties and children comprising 37% of casualties where age was recorded; 164 countries have joined the Mine Ban Treaty, including every NATO member except the United States, while Russia (in Ukraine, since Feb. 2022) and Myanmar's junta (continuously since 1999) have kept using antipersonnel mines- Kutipan
“"There were at least 5,757 new casualties from landmines and explosive remnants of war in 53 countries and 2 other areas in 2023, including 1,983 deaths. Civilians made up 84 percent of all recorded casualties in 2023, while children were 37 percent of casualties when the age was recorded." "A total of 164 countries have joined the treaty, including all NATO members except the United States." "Russia has used antipersonnel landmines repeatedly in Ukraine since its full-scale invasion of the country on February 24, 2022." "The Myanmar junta's armed forces have used antipersonnel landmines continuously since 1999." ”
- Data sumber dari
- 2024-11-19
- Diakses
- 2026-07-03 · salinan arsip
- Verifikasi
- Kutipan diambil ulang secara independen dan dikonfirmasi kata demi kata terhadap sumber terkutip selama audit pendasaran kami.
- Perhitungan
- Human Rights Watch (an ICBL co-founder) reports the Landmine Monitor 2024 finding — the authoritative global tracker for mine/ERW casualties, published annually by the ICBL (1997 Nobel Peace Prize co-laureate). At 5,757 casualties/year over a global adult population of 5 billion, the annual rate is 1.15e-6; compounded over 59 years: ~6.79e-5. The same article also grounds the body text's claim that more than 30 states have never joined the treaty (164 parties against the world's roughly 195 states leaves ~31 outside it), naming the United States as the one NATO non-member and Russia and Myanmar as non-signatories actively using antipersonnel mines in current conflicts.
- Independensi
- Human Rights Watch's reporting of the Landmine Monitor 2024 is an independent civil-society account, methodologically distinct from the MAG/Landmine Monitor 2025 source below (different publisher, different report year).
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[2] MAG (Mines Advisory Group) — 2025 Landmine Monitor out now Terverifikasi
2025 Landmine Monitor out now- Statistik
In 2024, a total of 6,279 people were killed or injured by unexploded ordnance; Myanmar recorded 2,029 casualties, the highest in the world for a second consecutive year- Kutipan
“"In 2024, a total of 6,279 people were killed or injured by unexploded ordnance... Myanmar once again suffered the highest number of casualties, with 2,029 people killed or injured in 2024." ”
- Data sumber dari
- 2025-11-01
- Diakses
- 2026-05-03 · salinan arsip
- Verifikasi
- Kutipan diambil ulang secara independen dan dikonfirmasi kata demi kata terhadap sumber terkutip selama audit pendasaran kami.
- Perhitungan
- MAG International (a leading humanitarian demining NGO) reports on the Landmine Monitor 2025 findings: 6,279 total casualties in 2024, with Myanmar alone recording 2,029. This corroborates the upward casualty trend and provides the 2024 figure, higher than the 2023 baseline used in our central estimate, supporting the upper range of the uncertainty band.
- Independensi
- MAG is an independent demining organization; its reporting on the Landmine Monitor 2025 is methodologically distinct from the ICBL/ReliefWeb source above (different publisher, independent commentary on the same report).
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[3] U.S. House of Representatives, Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific, and the Global Environment — Legacies of War: Unexploded Ordnance in Laos Terverifikasi
Legacies of War: Unexploded Ordnance in Laos- Statistik
Estimates of unexploded cluster submunitions remaining in Laos range from 8 million to 80 million, with less than 1/2 of 1% destroyed and less than 1% of contaminated land cleared as of 2010; the US bombing campaign ended in 1973- Kutipan
“"Estimates of the number of unexploded submunitions from cluster bombs range from 8 million to 80 million, with less than 1/2 of 1 percent destroyed, and less than 1 percent of contaminated lands cleared." "The bombing finally ended in 1973." ”
- Data sumber dari
- 2010-04-22
- Diakses
- 2026-07-03 · salinan arsip
- Verifikasi
- Kutipan diambil ulang secara independen dan dikonfirmasi kata demi kata terhadap sumber terkutip selama audit pendasaran kami.
- Perhitungan
- Official congressional hearing record, cited to substantiate the body text's "legacy burden" claim about Laos's unexploded cluster-submunition contamination from the 1964-1973 US bombing campaign. Not used in the headline native/normalized arithmetic, which rests on the Landmine Monitor casualty counts above; the 8-80 million range (not a single point figure) is why the body text now cites the full range rather than the upper bound alone.
- Independensi
- U.S. congressional hearing record, independent of the ICBL/HRW and MAG Landmine Monitor reporting used for the headline casualty figures.
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[4] Xinhua — Cambodia records 32 landmine, ERW casualties in 2023, down 22 pct Terverifikasi
Cambodia records 32 landmine, ERW casualties in 2023, down 22 pct- Statistik
Cambodia recorded 32 landmine and ERW casualties in 2023, a 22 percent decline from 41 in 2022- Kutipan
“"Cambodia reported 32 landmine and explosive remnant of war (ERW) casualties in 2023, a 22 percent decline from 41 in 2022." ”
- Data sumber dari
- 2024-03-14
- Diakses
- 2026-07-03 · salinan arsip
- Verifikasi
- Kutipan diambil ulang secara independen dan dikonfirmasi kata demi kata terhadap sumber terkutip selama audit pendasaran kami.
- Perhitungan
- Cited only to substantiate the body text's claim about Cambodia's ongoing annual landmine/ERW casualty toll — a legacy of the Khmer Rouge era and earlier Indochina wars, now running in the dozens per year rather than the hundreds. Not used in the headline global native/normalized arithmetic, which rests on the Landmine Monitor global casualty counts above.
- Independensi
- Xinhua's reporting on Cambodia's national mine-action authority statistics is independent of the ICBL/HRW and MAG global Landmine Monitor reporting used for the headline casualty figures.





