Kualitas bukti 4.5/5
Skor tinjauan delapan dimensi terhadap rubrik kualitas . Setiap dimensi dinilai 1–5.
- D1 Dasar sumber
- 4/5
- D2 Otoritas sumber
- 5/5
- D3 Aritmetika
- 5/5
- D4 Ketidakpastian
- 4/5
- D5 Cakupan
- 4/5
- D6 Prosa
- 5/5
- D7 Kejujuran persepsi
- 4/5
- D8 Kelengkapan peringatan
- 5/5
● faktor Anda — klik risiko ini ▾ untuk menampilkan
- Faktor Anda
≈ Sama mungkinnya dengan
Dipersepsikan
Pekerjaan polisi secara luas dipahami sebagai salah satu okupasi yang lebih berbahaya, dan persepsi publik — yang dibentuk oleh liputan berita tentang penyergapan petugas, upacara peringatan tugas, dan perdebatan politik soal keselamatan petugas — cenderung menempatkannya dalam kategori yang sangat berbahaya. Banyak orang akan menebak bahwa karier di penegakan hukum membawa peluang berarti untuk kematian akibat kekerasan saat bertugas. Ketakutan itu benar secara arah — pekerjaan polisi memang lebih berbahaya daripada sebagian besar pekerjaan berbasis meja — tetapi besaran risikonya jauh lebih rendah dari yang dibayangkan populer maupun mitologi okupasi. Tidak ada survei mandiri yang mengukur perkiraan publik atas kematian karier polisi yang teridentifikasi; risiko yang dipersepsikan di sini dikarakterisasi sebagai intuisi editorial berdasarkan kemenonjolan media dan pembingkaian politik atas keselamatan petugas.
Perkiraan kasar: sebagian besar orang melebih-lebihkan kematian karier polisi; risiko kematian traumatis dalam tugas yang sebenarnya selama karier 25 tahun kurang dari satu persen
Sumber: intuisi redaksi, bukan hasil survei
Aktual
~11,3 kematian kerja traumatis per 100.000 petugas polisi/sheriff per tahun (BLS CFOI, 2023)
Petugas polisi dan patroli sheriff AS (okupasi BLS CFOI), 2023
Tampilkan perhitungan
Subkelompok acuan: seorang petugas polisi atau patroli sheriff AS yang menjalani karier penuh 25 tahun (panjang karier modal, mencerminkan masuk kerja rata-rata sekitar usia 25 dan pensiun antara usia 50–55 di bawah sebagian besar sistem pensiun negara bagian). Tingkat tahunan utama adalah tingkat cedera-kerja-fatal Sensus Cedera Kerja Fatal (CFOI) BLS untuk «police and sheriff's patrol officers»: 11,3 kematian per 100.000 petugas untuk 2023 (BLS CFOI, dilaporkan oleh USAFacts). CFOI adalah basis yang tepat di sini karena cakupannya cocok secara konstruksi — BLS menghitung kematian per 100.000 pekerja setara penuh waktu, sehingga pembilang (kematian petugas) dan penyebut (angkatan kerja petugas) menggambarkan populasi yang sama — dan hanya menghitung CEDERA kerja fatal traumatis, sesuai dengan cakupan yang dinyatakan entri ini (tidak termasuk kematian akibat penyakit, termasuk COVID-19). Tingkat tahunan: 11,3/100.000 = 0,000113/tahun. Probabilitas seumur hidup selama karier 25 tahun: 1 − (1 − 0,000113)^25 ≈ 0,00282, dibulatkan menjadi 0,0028 (sekitar 1 dari 355). Angka ini hanya mencakup cedera fatal traumatis; secara eksplisit tidak termasuk penyakit akibat kerja, penyakit terkait 11 September, dan kematian COVID-19, yang dilacak NLEOMF secara terpisah dan yang menyumbang kira-kira 35–50 % dari total kematian petugas dalam tugas dalam beberapa tahun terakhir. Hitungan mentah FBI LEOKA felonious-plus-accidental (rata-rata lima tahun ~104 kematian per tahun sepanjang 2019–2023) dipertahankan dalam sumber di bawah hanya sebagai rincian KOMPOSISI kematian (bagaimana kematian traumatis petugas terbagi antara tindakan kejahatan dan kecelakaan) — angka itu TIDAK dibagi dengan angka 600.120 milik FBI untuk menghasilkan tingkat per petugas, karena 600.120 adalah hitungan satu tahun 2023 dari petugas hanya di 10.884 lembaga yang melaporkan PENYERANGAN ke LEOKA, bukan angkatan kerja tersumpah nasional. Membagi hitungan kematian nasional dengan penyebut subset pelaporan-penyerangan adalah ketidakcocokan cakupan pembilang/penyebut yang menggelembungkan tingkat per petugas; CFOI menghindari ini karena tingkatnya cocok-cakupan. Cakupan dinyatakan activity_specific_lifetime karena ini adalah risiko spesifik-karier untuk subkelompok okupasi tertentu, bukan probabilitas seumur hidup orang dewasa AS umum. Rentang ketidakpastian: batas bawah (8,2/100.000 → ~0,0020) adalah tingkat BLS CFOI 2023 untuk kelompok okupasi «Protective service» yang lebih luas (BLS Tabel 4); batas atas (14,4/100.000 → ~0,0036) adalah pemeriksaan-silang cocok-cakupan yang membagi rata-rata ~104 kematian/tahun LEOKA dengan angkatan kerja tersumpah penuh waktu nasional yang sebenarnya sekitar ~720.000 petugas (hitungan nasional berbasis FBI), yang juga mencerminkan tahun kematian 2021 yang meningkat.
Catatan: Angka ini hanya mencakup cedera kerja fatal traumatis (tindakan kejahatan dan ke…
Angka ini hanya mencakup cedera kerja fatal traumatis (tindakan kejahatan dan kecelakaan saat bertugas), sebagaimana diukur oleh Sensus Cedera Kerja Fatal BLS. Angka ini tidak termasuk kematian akibat penyakit kerja, kanker terkait paparan kimia, penyakit jantung, penyakit terkait 11 September, dan COVID-19, yang dilacak secara terpisah oleh National Law Enforcement Officers Memorial Fund dan yang menyumbang kira-kira 35–50 % dari total kematian petugas dalam tugas dalam beberapa tahun terakhir. Memasukkan kategori-kategori tersebut akan kira-kira menggandakan angka utama. Tingkat utama adalah tingkat petugas polisi/sheriff BLS CFOI (11,3 per 100.000, 2023), yang cocok-cakupan secara konstruksi — kematian per 100.000 pekerja setara penuh waktu. Versi entri sebelumnya justru membagi rata-rata kematian-traumatis lima tahun FBI LEOKA (~104/tahun) dengan 600.120, tetapi 600.120 hanyalah hitungan petugas di lembaga-lembaga yang melaporkan PENYERANGAN ke LEOKA pada 2023, bukan angkatan kerja tersumpah nasional (~720.000+); penyebut itu terlalu kecil dan menggelembungkan tingkat menjadi 17,3 per 100.000 dan angka karier menjadi 1 dari 231. Tingkat cocok-cakupan yang dikoreksi lebih rendah. Panjang karier 25 tahun adalah perkiraan titik tengah; sebagian petugas pensiun pada 20 tahun, yang lain bertugas 30+. Cedera serius non-fatal berjumlah sekitar 10.000–20.000 per tahun (data cedera BLS), jauh melebihi jumlah kematian traumatis.
Risiko terkait
Risiko lain dengan tema serupa — untuk menjelajahi ketakutan terkait.
Kematian tugas pemadam kebakaran
Berapa peluang pemadam kebakaran karier meninggal dalam tugas sepanjang karier penuh?
Kematian tugas petugas gawat darurat
Berapa peluang seorang EMT atau paramedis meninggal dalam tugas sepanjang karier?
Kematian karier pertambangan
Berapa peluang meninggal saat bekerja sebagai penambang sepanjang karier penuh?
Kematian senjata tak disengaja
Berapa kemungkinan meninggal akibat penembakan senjata api yang tidak disengaja?
Pilih penantang
The headline career risk for a US police officer dying in the line of duty from violence or accident is roughly 1 in 355 over a 25-year career — about 0.28 percent. That number comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries (CFOI), which put the fatal-occupational-injury rate for police and sheriff’s patrol officers at 11.3 deaths per 100,000 officers in 2023. CFOI is the cleanest basis for this comparison because its rate is coverage-matched — it counts deaths per 100,000 full-time-equivalent workers, so the numerator and denominator describe the same population — and it counts traumatic injuries only, excluding disease and COVID-19. By most occupational safety comparisons, policing is genuinely more dangerous than average American employment — the all-industry occupational traumatic death rate runs around 3.5 per 100,000 workers per year, roughly a third of the law enforcement rate — but far less dangerous than commercial fishing (~100 per 100,000/year), logging (~99 — the deadliest occupation BLS tracks), roofing (~50), or the early US ground combat role in Iraq and Afghanistan (~160–200 per 100,000 deployed service members per year at peak). BLS ranked policing about 20th among occupations for on-the-job deaths in 2023. A career in policing carries several times the traumatic death risk of the average American job, not twenty times.
The wide gap between perception and reality on this question has several sources. News coverage of officer deaths is intense and nationally syndicated; the same death that would attract local coverage for a roofer or a logger receives wall-to-wall attention when it involves a law enforcement officer. Annual memorial ceremonies, legislative debates over officer safety, and the high symbolism attached to the uniform all amplify the salience of each death beyond its statistical weight. The 2019–2023 LEOKA data also show meaningful year-to-year variance: 2021 was the deadliest year in the five-year window, with 73 felonious and 56 accidental deaths (129 total), while 2019 was the lightest at 89 total. The elevated 2021 figure drove coverage suggesting a crisis-level surge; the underlying five-year average smooths that spike to about 104 deaths per year, a figure that has not changed dramatically in a generation. What has changed is the assault rate: the FBI reported 79,091 officer assaults in 2023, the highest in a decade, suggesting that the ratio of serious injuries to fatalities may be shifting even as traumatic deaths themselves remain relatively stable.
One important caveat: the ~1 in 355 figure is the narrow traumatic mortality risk. A broader accounting of occupational hazards substantially changes the picture. The National Law Enforcement Officers Memorial Fund counted 136 total line-of-duty deaths in 2023 — the same year LEOKA’s traumatic count was approximately 92 — because NLEOMF also includes fatal medical events, long-term illness attributed to occupational exposures (9/11 responder cancers, for example), and COVID-19. In recent years, disease and illness categories have accounted for 35–50% of total officer line-of-duty deaths. If those categories are included, the lifetime career mortality figure roughly doubles. The site reports the narrow traumatic figure both because BLS CFOI measures it on a coverage-matched, methodologically consistent basis and because the “occupational disease” attribution question — is this cancer from on-the-job chemical exposure, or coincidental? — is a hard causal problem that the traumatic-injury count wisely declines to attempt.
Fakta terkait
Kematian traumatik saat bertugas rata-rata sekitar 104 per tahun di antara kira-kira 800.000 petugas tersumpah AS, atau sekitar 1 dari 310 sepanjang karier penuh 25 tahun. Berbahaya dibanding kebanyakan pekerjaan, tetapi jauh di bawah angka kematian karier yang dibayangkan banyak orang untuk lencana itu.
Buku besar klaim
Setiap angka di bawah ini adalah apa yang dilaporkan masing-masing sumber, dengan kutipan kata demi kata yang kami andalkan dan bagaimana kami sampai pada angka kami. Klik tautan mana saja untuk memverifikasi langsung.
1/4 sumber diverifikasi secara independen kata demi kata terhadap sumber terkutip
-
[1] Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reporting Program — Law Enforcement Officers Killed and Assaulted (LEOKA) — FBI UCR Program
Law Enforcement Officers Killed and Assaulted (LEOKA) — FBI UCR Program- Statistik
2019–2023 annual felonious and accidental officer deaths: 89, 93, 129, 118, and approximately 92 respectively; five-year mean approximately 104 traumatic deaths per year (used here for death-composition only, not as a per-officer rate)- Kutipan
“"In 2022, 60 officers died as a result of felonious acts and 58 officers died in accidents, for a total of 118 line-of-duty deaths. In 2021, 73 officers were feloniously killed and 56 died accidentally (129 total). From 2021 to 2023, more officers were feloniously killed (194) than in any other consecutive three-year period in the past 20 years." ”
- Data sumber dari
- 2024-05-14
- Diakses
- 2026-05-10 · salinan arsip
- Perhitungan
- LEOKA annual reports provide felonious + accidental death counts separately. These are the traumatic categories analogous to "line of duty" in the narrow sense; they exclude illness deaths. Five-year series: 2019 (89) + 2020 (93) + 2021 (129) + 2022 (118) + 2023 (~92) = 521 total / 5 years = 104.2/year. This mean is retained here ONLY as the death-COMPOSITION breakdown — the split of officer traumatic deaths between felonious acts and accidents. It is deliberately NOT divided by the FBI's 600,120 figure to produce a per-officer rate: the 2023 Special Report states that 10,884 agencies employing 600,120 officers reported 79,091 assaults, so 600,120 is the single-year count of officers only at the assault-REPORTING subset of agencies, not the national sworn workforce. Because the LEOKA death numerator spans officers and agencies outside that assault-reporting subset, dividing ~104 by 600,120 (the old basis, which yielded 17.3/100,000 and a 1-in-231 career figure) is a numerator/denominator coverage mismatch that inflates the per-officer rate. The headline rate is instead taken from the coverage-matched BLS CFOI series (11.3 per 100,000 police/sheriff officers, 2023), whose numerator and denominator describe the same population. As a cross-check, dividing ~104 LEOKA deaths by the true national full-time sworn workforce of ~720,000 gives ~14.4/100,000 — the upper end of the uncertainty band, and materially below the discredited 17.3 figure. Career probability at the CFOI headline rate over 25 years: 1 − (1 − 0.000113)^25 ≈ 0.0028 (0.28%, roughly 1 in 355).
- Independensi
- FBI LEOKA is the primary federal government data collection on officer deaths, drawing from voluntary agency-level reporting across all 50 states and federal agencies. It is methodologically distinct from the NLEOMF count (which uses a broader definition including medical events and illness). Both sources are cross-checked here.
-
[2] National Law Enforcement Officers Memorial Fund (NLEOMF) — 2023 Law Enforcement Fatalities Report Reveals Law Enforcement Deaths Dropped Terverifikasi
2023 Law Enforcement Fatalities Report Reveals Law Enforcement Deaths Dropped- Statistik
2023: 136 total line-of-duty deaths; 47 by gunfire, 37 traffic-related, 5 COVID-19, 35 fatal medical events, 12 other; traumatic deaths (gunfire + traffic) = 84- Kutipan
“"In 2023, 136 federal, state, county, municipal, military, tribal, and campus officers died in the line of duty, representing a 39 percent decrease compared to the 224 officers who died in the line of duty in 2022. Firearms-related fatalities claimed the lives of 47 officers in 2023 — a 25 percent decrease from the 63 officers killed by gunfire in 2022. Traffic-related fatalities decreased 27 percent, with 37 deaths in 2023 compared to 51 in 2022." ”
- Data sumber dari
- 2024-01-10
- Diakses
- 2026-05-10 · salinan arsip
- Verifikasi
- Kutipan diambil ulang secara independen dan dikonfirmasi kata demi kata terhadap sumber terkutip selama audit pendasaran kami.
- Perhitungan
- NLEOMF's 2023 total of 84 traumatic deaths (47 gunfire + 37 traffic) cross-validates the LEOKA estimate of ~92 for 2023 (60 felonious + ~32 accidental). The ~8-unit gap reflects definitional differences: NLEOMF uses "traffic-related" which may subset differently from LEOKA's "accidental," and LEOKA covers some federal agencies not in the NLEOMF count. The NLEOMF figure of 47 gunfire deaths is consistent with FBI LEOKA's 60 felonious deaths (LEOKA includes non-firearm felonious causes; NLEOMF's 47 is firearm-specific regardless of felonious/accidental classification). Headline point estimate uses the FBI LEOKA 5-year mean; NLEOMF provides the 2023 cross-check.
- Independensi
- NLEOMF is an independent nonprofit that maintains its own officer death registry, drawing on multiple sources including agency reports and media. Its definition of "line of duty death" is broader than FBI LEOKA's felonious+accidental categories, notably including occupational illness. The NLEOMF traumatic-only subset (gunfire + traffic) is used here to align methodologically with LEOKA's scope.
-
[3] U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics — Table 4. Fatal work injury rates per 100,000 full-time equivalent workers by selected occupations, 2021-23 — Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries
Table 4. Fatal work injury rates per 100,000 full-time equivalent workers by selected occupations, 2021-23 — Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries- Statistik
Fatal work injury rate per 100,000 full-time equivalent workers: Protective service occupation group 9.4 (2021), 10.2 (2022), 8.2 (2023); all workers 3.6 (2021), 3.7 (2022), 3.5 (2023)- Kutipan
“"Table 4. Fatal work injury rates(1) per 100,000 full-time equivalent workers by selected occupations, 2021-23 [...] All workers 3.6 3.7 3.5 [...] Protective service 9.4 10.2 8.2 [...] 1 Fatal injury rates are per 100,000 full-time equivalent (FTE) workers. [...] CFOI fatal injury counts exclude illness-related deaths unless precipitated by an injury event." ”
- Data sumber dari
- 2024-12-19
- Diakses
- 2026-07-09 · salinan arsip
- Perhitungan
- BLS CFOI is the coverage-matched basis for this entry: it computes fatal occupational injuries per 100,000 full-time-equivalent workers, so the numerator (officer fatalities) and denominator (the officer workforce) describe the same population, and it counts traumatic fatal injuries only (illness-related deaths are excluded unless precipitated by an injury event), matching this entry's stated scope. Table 4 publishes the broad "Protective service" SOC group rate (8.2/100,000 in 2023), used here as the uncertainty low; the police-and-sheriff's-patrol-officers-specific 2023 rate of 11.3/100,000 (the headline basis) comes from BLS CFOI's detailed occupation series as reported by USAFacts. All-workers rate (3.5/100,000, 2023) supplies the general- occupation comparison in the prose. Annual headline rate 0.000113 → 25-year career 1 − (1 − 0.000113)^25 ≈ 0.0028 (~1 in 355).
- Independensi
- BLS CFOI is a federal government census of fatal occupational injuries, methodologically independent of the FBI LEOKA collection (which counts officer deaths from agency reporting) and of the NLEOMF registry. Using CFOI for the headline rate removes the numerator/denominator coverage mismatch that afflicted the prior LEOKA-count-over- assault-reporting-workforce quotient.
-
[4] USAFacts — How many police officers die in the line of duty in the US?
How many police officers die in the line of duty in the US?- Statistik
BLS CFOI 2023: police officers' fatal-injury rate was 11.3 deaths per 100,000 officers; police ranked 20th among occupations for on-the-job deaths (logging highest at 98.9 per 100,000)- Kutipan
“"The BLS did not rank policing in the top 10 deadly professions in the US in 2023, the most recent year of available data. BLS ranks professions by the number of on-the-job fatalities per 100,000 full-time equivalent employees. [...] officers' rate was 11.3 deaths per 100,000 officers. [...] Police officers ranked 20th among occupations for on-the-job deaths." ”
- Data sumber dari
- 2024-05-16
- Diakses
- 2026-07-09 · salinan arsip
- Perhitungan
- USAFacts republishes the BLS Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries police-and-sheriff's- patrol-officers rate of 11.3 deaths per 100,000 officers for 2023 — the headline basis for this entry. This is coverage-matched (BLS computes deaths per 100,000 FTE) and injury-only (excludes illness/COVID-19), matching the entry's scope. Annual rate 11.3/100,000 = 0.000113/year → 25-year career 1 − (1 − 0.000113)^25 ≈ 0.0028 (~1 in 355). The article notes policing ranked 20th among occupations for on-the-job deaths in 2023, well below logging (98.9/100,000).
- Independensi
- USAFacts is a nonpartisan nonprofit that compiles and republishes US government statistics with source attribution; the 11.3/100,000 figure is attributed by USAFacts to the Bureau of Labor Statistics CFOI. It is cited here because BLS's detailed occupation-level CFOI rate for police officers is not exposed on a single stable bls.gov HTML page, whereas BLS Table 4 (also cited) provides the coverage-matched methodology and the adjacent Protective-service group rate.