Kualitas bukti 4.38/5
Skor tinjauan delapan dimensi terhadap rubrik kualitas . Setiap dimensi dinilai 1–5.
- D1 Dasar sumber
- 5/5
- D2 Otoritas sumber
- 5/5
- D3 Aritmetika
- 4/5
- D4 Ketidakpastian
- 4/5
- D5 Cakupan
- 5/5
- D6 Prosa
- 4/5
- D7 Kejujuran persepsi
- 4/5
- D8 Kelengkapan peringatan
- 4/5
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Dipersepsikan
Tsunami adalah salah satu bencana yang paling ikonik secara visual dalam siklus berita modern, didominasi oleh peristiwa Samudra Hindia 2004 dan gempa Tōhoku 2011. Kami belum menemukan survei terkini yang ketat yang mengisolasi «ketakutan terbunuh oleh tsunami» sebagai pertanyaan tersendiri, sehingga sisi persepsi di sini ditandai sebagai intuisi editorial ketimbang data jajak pendapat. Prakiraan awal yang masuk akal sangat dibentuk oleh rekaman televisi dari kedua peristiwa tersebut.
Perkiraan kasar: Eurobarometer mengelompokkan tsunami di bawah bencana alam secara luas; World Risk Poll mendapati bencana alam sebagai kekhawatiran keamanan 5-besar di wilayah pesisir seismik tetapi tidak secara global; tidak ada survei besar yang mengisolasi mortalitas tsunami sebagai butir tersendiri
Sumber: European Commission, DG ECHO (2024) — Special Eurobarometer — EU Citizens and Civil Protection
Aktual
~2.500 kematian tsunami per tahun (rata-rata global jangka panjang)
global
Tampilkan perhitungan
Menggunakan rata-rata global jangka panjang sekitar 2.000-3.000 kematian tsunami per tahun, diperoleh dengan menghaluskan catatan 1900-2025. Jendela waktu sangat penting: peristiwa Samudra Hindia 2004 (~227.000 kematian) dan peristiwa Tōhoku 2011 (~18.000 kematian) bersama-sama menyumbang sebagian besar mortalitas tsunami modern, sehingga jendela 20 tahun yang berpusat pada 2004 menghasilkan ~12.500 kematian/tahun sementara jendela 125 tahun menghasilkan mendekati 2.500/tahun. Dibagi dengan populasi global ~8 miliar dan diakumulasikan selama 60 tahun kehidupan dewasa menghasilkan kira-kira 1 dari 53.000 (1,9e-5). Pita ketidakpastian di bawah mencerminkan pilihan jendela waktu, bukan derau pengambilan sampel. Ini adalah angka «orang dewasa global rata-rata» dan bukan estimasi pribadi yang berguna untuk individu mana pun — lihat teks isi.
Catatan: Angka rata-rata global adalah penanda skala, bukan estimasi pribadi. Mortalitas …
Angka rata-rata global adalah penanda skala, bukan estimasi pribadi. Mortalitas tsunami hampir seluruhnya bersifat pesisir, terkonsentrasi di Cincin Pasifik dan cekungan Samudra Hindia; populasi yang terkurung daratan dan wilayah pedalaman menghadapi risiko tsunami yang secara efektif nol. Dalam populasi pesisir, geografi lokal, ketinggian di atas permukaan laut, dan jarak dari zona subduksi mengubah risiko per orang sebesar berkali-kali lipat orde besaran.
Risiko terkait
Risiko lain dengan tema serupa — untuk menjelajahi ketakutan terkait.
Kematian akibat panas pasca badai
Seberapa besar kemungkinan meninggal karena panas setelah badai memutus listrik di musim panas?
Pilih penantang
Across recorded history, NOAA’s Global Historical Tsunami Database attributes more than 500,000 fatalities to tsunamis, but the modern total is dominated by two events: the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami (~227,000 deaths) and the 2011 Tōhoku tsunami (~18,000 deaths). Smoothed over the 1900-2025 window, that works out to roughly 2,000-3,000 deaths per year globally. Divided by eight billion people and compounded over a typical 60-year adult life, the order-of-magnitude figure is about 1 in 100,000 global lifetime — roughly five times the lifetime risk of being killed by lightning in the US, and in the same broad range as (if anything, marginally above) the lifetime risk of dying in a plane crash for a regular flyer.
What makes tsunami statistics unusual is how extreme the heterogeneity is. Tsunami risk is not “low everywhere” the way lightning risk is; it is essentially zero for most of the world’s population and concentrated almost entirely along subduction-zone coastlines in the Pacific Rim and Indian Ocean basins. A resident of Warsaw, Denver, or Ulaanbaatar has no realistic exposure. A resident of coastal Sumatra, northeast Honshu, or the Cascadia margin has a per-year risk that is many orders of magnitude higher than the global average. The global lifetime number is a scale marker for comparing one fear to another — not a personal forecast for anyone in particular.
The other thing the window-sensitivity makes clear is how much a single event can move the long-run average. WHO’s 1998-2017 window reports more than 250,000 tsunami deaths, of which ~91% come from one day in December 2004. Pick a different 20-year window and the headline changes by an order of magnitude. We cite the NCEI long-record figure as the primary anchor and treat WHO’s shorter window as the upper bound of the uncertainty band, which is why the “1 in 100,000” number is bracketed by roughly 1 in 30,000 on the pessimistic side and 1 in 300,000 on the optimistic side.
Fakta terkait
Rata-rata global jangka panjang sekitar 2.500 kematian akibat tsunami per tahun, yang setara dengan sekitar 1 in 53,000 selama hidup orang dewasa global. Korban datang dalam bencana langka yang terkonsentrasi, bukan kerugian yang terus-menerus.
Buku besar klaim
Setiap angka di bawah ini adalah apa yang dilaporkan masing-masing sumber, dengan kutipan kata demi kata yang kami andalkan dan bagaimana kami sampai pada angka kami. Klik tautan mana saja untuk memverifikasi langsung.
3/3 sumber diverifikasi secara independen kata demi kata terhadap sumber terkutip
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[1] NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) / World Data Service — Global Historical Tsunami Database Terverifikasi
Global Historical Tsunami Database- Statistik
Tsunamis have caused more than 500,000 fatalities throughout recorded history; 227,899 of those were from the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami alone.- Kutipan
“"The NOAA/World Data Service (WDS) tsunami database is a listing of historical tsunami source events and runup locations throughout the world that range in date from 2000 B.C. to the present. Tsunamis have been responsible for more than 500,000 fatalities throughout the world, 227,899 were from the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami." ”
- Data sumber dari
- 2024-01-01
- Diakses
- 2026-04-11 · salinan arsip
- Verifikasi
- Kutipan diambil ulang secara independen dan dikonfirmasi kata demi kata terhadap sumber terkutip selama audit pendasaran kami.
- Perhitungan
- The NCEI total of ~500,000 fatalities spans roughly 4,000 years of (sparse, heavily right-skewed) records. For a modern baseline we use the 1900-2025 subset, in which the 2004 and 2011 events dominate and the smoothed average is ~2,000-3,000 deaths per year. Annual per-capita risk ≈ 2,500 / 8,000,000,000 ≈ 3.1e-7; compounded over 60 adult years ≈ 1.9e-5, which we round to an order-of-magnitude 1 in 100,000.
- Independensi
- NCEI compiles the primary global tsunami event catalogue from seismic and hazard records, methodologically distinct from WHO's public-health mortality reporting and from Doocy et al.'s systematic review of historical sources. Provides the long-record anchor the other two sources do not reach.
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[2] World Health Organization — Tsunamis — Health Topic Terverifikasi
Tsunamis — Health Topic- Statistik
Between 1998-2017, tsunamis caused more than 250,000 deaths globally, including more than 227,000 deaths from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.- Kutipan
“"Between 1998-2017, tsunamis caused more than 250 000 deaths globally, including more than 227 000 deaths due to the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004." ”
- Data sumber dari
- 2023-01-01
- Diakses
- 2026-04-11 · salinan arsip
- Verifikasi
- Kutipan diambil ulang secara independen dan dikonfirmasi kata demi kata terhadap sumber terkutip selama audit pendasaran kami.
- Perhitungan
- WHO’s 20-year window yields ~12,500 deaths/year, but ~91% of that total comes from a single 2004 event. This is the upper-bound window for the uncertainty band (1 in ~30,000 global lifetime). Taken independently from the NCEI figure, which is compiled from source-event records rather than public-health reporting.
- Independensi
- NCEI (event-based seismic/hazard records) and WHO (public-health reporting) aggregate mortality through different pipelines; treat as meaningfully independent verification of order of magnitude.
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[3] PLoS Currents / Doocy S, Daniels A, Dick A, Kirsch TD — The Human Impact of Tsunamis: a Historical Review of Events 1900-2009 and Systematic Literature Review Terverifikasi
The Human Impact of Tsunamis: a Historical Review of Events 1900-2009 and Systematic Literature Review- Statistik
255,195 deaths (range 252,619-275,784) from tsunamis 1900-2009; 89% from the 2004 Indian Ocean event; average ~2,552 deaths/year- Kutipan
“"255,195 deaths (range 252,619-275,784) and 48,462 injuries as a result of tsunamis from 1900 to 2009. However, the majority of deaths (89%) were attributed to a single event — the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami." ”
- Data sumber dari
- 2013-04-16
- Diakses
- 2026-04-12 · salinan arsip
- Verifikasi
- Kutipan diambil ulang secara independen dan dikonfirmasi kata demi kata terhadap sumber terkutip selama audit pendasaran kami.
- Perhitungan
- Independent systematic review tabulating tsunami mortality from primary historical sources. The ~2,552 deaths/year long-window average confirms the 2,500/year figure used in this entry's normalized calculation.
- Independensi
- Independent of NOAA NCEI — uses primary historical sources and literature review rather than the NCEI database.







