Яка ймовірність того, що знадобиться більше п'яти років платного догляду?

Кожне число нижче — це те, що повідомило джерело, з дослівною цитатою, на яку ми спиралися, та тим, як ми дійшли до нашої цифри. Натисніть на посилання, щоб перевірити самостійно.

2/2 джерел незалежно перевірено дослівно за вказаним джерелом

1. [1] US Department of Health and Human Services, ASPE — Long-Term Services and Supports for Older Americans: Risks and Financing, 2022 Перевірено ↗ 1 other entry Урядовий звіт

   Long-Term Services and Supports for Older Americans: Risks and Financing, 2022

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   Статистика

   22% of adults turning 65 in 2021-2025 will have LTSS needs lasting more than five years; this share is higher for low-income adults (29%) and those in fair/poor health at 65 (25%)

   Витяг

   “"About 56 percent of people turning 65 between 2021 and 2025 will need LTSS in their lifetime. About 22 percent will have needs lasting more than five years." ”

   Дані джерела:

   2022-09-27

   Дата звернення

   2026-05-14 · архівна копія

   Перевірка

   Витяг незалежно повторно отримано та дослівно підтверджено за вказаним джерелом під час нашого аудиту обґрунтованості.

   Розрахунок

   ASPE 2022 DYNASIM4 microsimulation for adults turning 65 in 2021-2025. The 22% figure is the share with LTSS needs (any type) lasting >5 years, conditional on reaching age 65. Unconditional from birth: 0.22 × 0.82 ≈ 0.18. Using 2024 Genworth/CareScout Cost of Care data for context: $127,750/year for a nursing home private room; 5 years = ~$638,750. Even at home health aide rates ($77,792/year median in 2024), 5 years = ~$388,960. These costs are beyond the reach of most middle-income households without LTC insurance or Medicaid spend-down.

   Незалежність

   ASPE DYNASIM4 uses its own microsimulation modeling framework drawing on Census, HRS, and CMS administrative data. The 2022 projections are forward-looking estimates, distinct from the retrospective HRS-based analysis in Johnson (2019).

2. [2] US Department of Health and Human Services, ASPE — What Is the Lifetime Risk of Needing and Receiving Long-Term Services and Supports? Перевірено ↗ 2 other entries Урядовий звіт

   What Is the Lifetime Risk of Needing and Receiving Long-Term Services and Supports?

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   Статистика

   38% of severe LTSS need episodes last more than 4 years; 9% last more than 10 years; only 5% of older adults receive paid LTSS for more than 5 years

   Витяг

   “"About 70 percent of adults who survive to age 65 will develop severe LTSS needs before they die and 48 percent will receive some paid care over their lifetime. Only 24 percent of older adults receive more than two years of paid LTSS care, and only 15 percent spend more than two years in a nursing home." ”

   Дані джерела:

   2019-04-03

   Дата звернення

   2026-05-14 · архівна копія

   Перевірка

   Витяг незалежно повторно отримано та дослівно підтверджено за вказаним джерелом під час нашого аудиту обґрунтованості.

   Розрахунок

   The 2019 ASPE/Urban Institute analysis provides the historical duration distribution: of severe need episodes, 40% last ≤2 years, 38% last >4 years, and 9% last >10 years. Applied to the 70% conditional prevalence: the >4-year group is 0.70 × 0.38 ≈ 27% of those reaching 65. Only 24% receive more than 2 years of *paid* care, and only 5% of all older adults receive paid LTSS for more than 5 years — lower than the 22% with any LTSS need >5 years because many long-need individuals rely on unpaid family care.

   Незалежність

   The 2019 ASPE/Urban Institute report and the 2022 ASPE brief use different methodologies and cohort definitions; both are included to bracket the plausible range. The 22% figure (2022) refers to any LTSS need >5 years while the 5% figure (2019) refers to paid care >5 years, explaining much of the gap between the two estimates.