Hoe groot is de kans om om te komen bij een overstroming?

Elk getal hieronder is wat elke bron rapporteerde, met het letterlijke citaat waarop we ons baseerden en hoe we tot ons cijfer kwamen. Klik op een link om rechtstreeks te verifiëren.

4/5 bronnen onafhankelijk woordelijk geverifieerd tegenover de geciteerde bron

1. [1] Bulletin of the World Health Organization (Liu Q, Du M, Wang Y, Deng J, Yan W, Qin C, Liu M, Liu J) — Global, regional and national trends and impacts of natural floods, 1990-2022 Geverifieerd Vakgenoten-beoordeeld

   Global, regional and national trends and impacts of natural floods, 1990-2022

   Statistiek

   4,713 floods recorded in 168 countries between 1990 and 2022 resulted in 218,353 deaths and more than US$1.3 trillion in economic damages; South-East Asia Region had 71,713 deaths (32.84%), Region of the Americas 48,630 (22.27%), Western Pacific Region 42,721 (19.57%), Eastern Mediterranean 29,819, Africa 19,927, Europe 5,543.

   Fragment

   “"Between 1990 and 2022, 4713 floods were recorded in 168 countries, which resulted in 218 353 deaths and caused more than US$ 1.3 trillion in economic damages. Of these, the South-East Asia Region had the highest number (71 713; 32.84%) followed by the Region of the Americas (48 630; 22.27%)." ”

   Brongegevens van

   2024-06-01

   Geraadpleegd

   2026-04-11 · gearchiveerde kopie

   Verificatie

   Fragment onafhankelijk opnieuw opgehaald en woord voor woord bevestigd tegenover de geciteerde bron tijdens onze onderbouwingsaudit.

   Berekening

   WHO Bulletin total of 218,353 deaths / 33 years ≈ 6,617 deaths per year, which we round to ~6,600 as the headline native figure. Annual per-capita risk ≈ 6,600 / 8,000,000,000 ≈ 8.25e-7; compounded over 60 adult years ≈ 4.95e-5 ≈ 1 in 20,200, which we display as ~1 in 20,000. The regional breakdown in the paper (South-East Asia and Americas together accounting for 55% of deaths, Europe contributing only 2.5%) is the empirical basis for the regional_breakdown rows below.

   Onafhankelijkheid

   The WHO Bulletin analysis draws on EM-DAT (CRED) records, the same underlying disaster database used by Jonkman (2005) and by most modern flood mortality research. Treat the two peer-reviewed sources as methodologically independent compilations of overlapping source data — they agree on the order of magnitude (~6,500-6,600 deaths/year) across very different time windows, which is the main reason we use that number rather than a shorter-window mean.

2. [2] Natural Hazards (Jonkman, S.N.) — Global Perspectives on Loss of Human Life Caused by Floods Vakgenoten-beoordeeld

   Global Perspectives on Loss of Human Life Caused by Floods

   Statistiek

   Over the 27-year period studied, more than 175,000 people died and close to 2.2 billion were affected directly by floods worldwide; flash floods produce the highest average mortality per event, and Asian river floods dominate absolute casualty counts.

   Fragment

   “"Over 27 years, more than 175,000 people died and close to 2.2 billion were affected directly by floods worldwide. ... Flash floods result in the highest average mortality per event. ... On a worldwide scale Asian river floods are most significant in terms of number of persons killed and affected." ”

   Brongegevens van

   2005-01-01

   Geraadpleegd

   2026-04-11 · gearchiveerde kopie

   Berekening

   Jonkman’s 175,000 deaths / 27 years ≈ 6,500/year — within 2% of the WHO Bulletin figure despite covering a different window (1975-2002 vs 1990-2022) and using a different compilation of the EM-DAT records. Jonkman is the source traditionally cited for the "flash floods have the highest per-event mortality" and "Asian river floods dominate global casualty counts" claims, both of which shape the regional_breakdown and body text here.

   Onafhankelijkheid

   Jonkman (2005) and Liu et al (2024) both draw ultimately from EM-DAT / CRED disaster records. Treated as methodologically independent because of the different time windows, different aggregation choices, and different research groups; their agreement on order of magnitude is the main quantitative anchor for the headline.

3. [3] NOAA National Weather Service — Turn Around Don't Drown — Flood Safety Geverifieerd ↗ 1 other entry Overheidsrapport

   Turn Around Don't Drown — Flood Safety

   See all 2 Likelier entries citing this source →

   Statistiek

   Per CDC data cited by NWS, over half of all US flood-related drownings occur when a vehicle is driven into hazardous flood water. 6 inches of moving water can knock an adult off their feet; 12 inches of moving water can carry away most cars; 24 inches can sweep away SUVs and trucks.

   Fragment

   “"According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, over half of all flood-related drownings occur when a vehicle is driven into hazardous flood water. ... Six inches of fast-moving water can knock over an adult. It takes just 12 inches of rushing water to carry away most cars and just 2 feet of rushing water can carry away SUVs and trucks." ”

   Brongegevens van

   2024-01-01

   Geraadpleegd

   2026-04-11 · gearchiveerde kopie

   Verificatie

   Fragment onafhankelijk opnieuw opgehaald en woord voor woord bevestigd tegenover de geciteerde bron tijdens onze onderbouwingsaudit.

   Berekening

   Used to anchor the US behavioral-multiplier story rather than the global normalized figure. The NWS / CDC "over half" framing is the evidence base for the personal_factor_multipliers entry on driving into flooded roadways and for the "turn around, don’t drown" paragraph in the body text. NWS reports an approximate long-run average near 88 US flood deaths per year across its 30-year window, which gives a US lifetime baseline of ~88/333M × 60 ≈ 1.6e-5 ≈ 1 in 63,000 — an order of magnitude lower than the global figure because US flood mortality is dominated by behavioral (vehicle) rather than exposure (coastal-delta inundation) pathways, and because US warning and evacuation infrastructure is unusually mature.

   Onafhankelijkheid

   NWS hazard-statistics pages and CDC mortality reporting are partially overlapping (NWS Storm Data is one input CDC uses to classify weather-related deaths), so the two figures should be treated as a single US authoritative chain rather than two fully independent estimates.

4. [4] NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) — NOAA Satellites Inform Warning for the Texas Hill Country Floods Geverifieerd Overheidsrapport

   NOAA Satellites Inform Warning for the Texas Hill Country Floods

   Statistiek

   In the early hours of 4 July 2025 a devastating flash flood occurred in the Central Texas Hill Country in which more than a hundred people lost their lives and thousands of residents' homes were destroyed — by toll the deadliest US rainfall-driven flash flood in roughly half a century.

   Fragment

   “"In the early hours of July 4, 2025 a devastating flash flood occurred in the Central Texas Hill Country. ... more than a hundred people lost their lives and thousands of residents' homes were destroyed." ”

   Brongegevens van

   2025-07-01

   Geraadpleegd

   2026-06-14 · gearchiveerde kopie

   Verificatie

   Fragment onafhankelijk opnieuw opgehaald en woord voor woord bevestigd tegenover de geciteerde bron tijdens onze onderbouwingsaudit.

   Berekening

   Not used to change the headline normalized figure — it is a single high-fatality US event that does not shift the long-run global per-capita average. It is cited as a current data point reinforcing the nocturnal flash-flood subgroup discussed in the caveats and the flash-flood personal_factor_multipliers entry: the predawn timing, short warning lead time, and exposure of sleeping victims on a low-lying floodway are the same failure modes Jonkman (2005) identifies as producing the highest per-event mortality fraction. The toll ("more than a hundred"; ~138-139 across Kerr, Travis, Burnet, Williamson and Tom Green counties per contemporaneous reporting) makes it the deadliest US rainfall-driven flash flood since the 1976 Big Thompson Canyon flood.

   Onafhankelijkheid

   NOAA/NWS post-event analyses of the July 2025 Texas flood share the same federal weather-service reporting chain as the Turn Around Don't Drown / NWS US mortality figures above; treat as one US authoritative chain, not an independent estimate.

5. [5] Bulletin of the World Health Organization (Haque U, Hashizume M, Kolivras KN, Overgaard HJ, Das B, Yamamoto T) — Reduced death rates from cyclones in Bangladesh: what more needs to be done? Geverifieerd Vakgenoten-beoordeeld

   Reduced death rates from cyclones in Bangladesh: what more needs to be done?

   Statistiek

   Cyclone-related death tolls in Bangladesh fell from roughly 500,300 in the 1970 Bhola cyclone to 138,958 in a 1991 cyclone to 4,234 in 2007's Cyclone Sidr, a more-than-hundredfold decline credited to early warning systems, cyclone shelters, evacuation plans, and coastal embankments.

   Fragment

   “"The main factors responsible for these reduced fatalities and injuries are improved defensive measures, including early warning systems, cyclone shelters, evacuation plans, coastal embankments, reforestation schemes and increased awareness and communication." ”

   Brongegevens van

   2012-02-01

   Geraadpleegd

   2026-07-04 · gearchiveerde kopie

   Verificatie

   Fragment onafhankelijk opnieuw opgehaald en woord voor woord bevestigd tegenover de geciteerde bron tijdens onze onderbouwingsaudit.

   Berekening

   Supplies the evidentiary basis for the Bangladesh mortality-decline paragraph in the body text. Death tolls of roughly 500,300 (1970 Bhola cyclone), 138,958 (1991 cyclone), and 4,234 (2007 Cyclone Sidr) represent more than a hundredfold reduction over less than four decades, which the paper attributes to early warning systems, cyclone shelters, evacuation plans, and coastal embankments, not any reduction in storm intensity. Cyclone-driven storm-surge flooding is the dominant flood-fatality pathway in coastal Bangladesh, so this is used as the evidence for the "mortality has declined" thesis in the body text, distinct from the river-flood events (1998, 2010, 2022) discussed elsewhere in this entry.

   Onafhankelijkheid

   Published in the same journal (Bulletin of the WHO) as the Liu et al. 2024 global flood analysis above but a different research group studying a different, narrower population (Bangladesh cyclone mortality specifically, not global flood mortality); treat as independent of the other sources here.