Hoe waarschijnlijk is het dat een werknemer boven de 50 uit zijn baan wordt gedrongen vóór de geplande pensioenleeftijd?

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1. [1] Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development — OECD Employment Outlook 2025 Gerenommeerde referentie

   OECD Employment Outlook 2025

   Statistiek

   Older workers who are displaced spend more time unemployed, are much less likely to be reemployed, and suffer larger wage losses than younger workers; the report gives no single involuntary-separation probability

   Fragment

   “"When older workers do experience job displacement, they face much greater challenges compared to younger workers: they spend more time unemployed, are significantly less likely to become reemployed, and when they do find new work, they typically suffer much larger wage losses. [...] Older workers are less likely to become unemployed compared to their younger counterparts, but when they do lose their jobs, they face significantly higher risks of long-term unemployment. As a result, job loss in one's 50s or 60s can have lasting effects on labour market attachment, income security, and retirement pathways." ”

   Brongegevens van

   2025-07-01

   Geraadpleegd

   2026-05-04 · gearchiveerde kopie

   Berekening

   OECD Employment Outlook 2025, "Navigating the golden years" chapter. The report documents that older-worker displacement is typically involuntary and driven by structural economic shifts, and that displaced older workers face longer joblessness, lower reemployment, and steeper wage losses than younger workers. It does NOT report an overall probability of involuntary separation before retirement, so it is cited here for the severity and poor-recovery dimension of the risk, not as the source of the headline rate. The headline point estimate is derived from the two quantitative panel studies below (SHARE 9% narrow EU exit; US HRS 56% broad displacement).

2. [2] Mäcken, Präg, Hess & Ellwardt — Journal of Social Policy 51(2), 435–459 (Cambridge University Press); SHARE data — Educational Inequalities in Labor Market Exit of Older Workers in 15 European Countries Geverifieerd Vakgenoten-beoordeeld

   Educational Inequalities in Labor Market Exit of Older Workers in 15 European Countries

   Statistiek

   9% of older European workers exit the labor market involuntarily (mean age 58.8 vs 62.0 for voluntary exit); 15 SHARE countries, 7 waves 2004–2017

   Fragment

   “"Most workers exited the labor market voluntarily and only 9% involuntarily, whereby the average age of involuntary work exit was 58.8 years and by that more than three years earlier than a voluntary work exit with 62.0 years." ”

   Brongegevens van

   2022-04-01

   Geraadpleegd

   2026-06-30 · gearchiveerde kopie

   Verificatie

   Fragment onafhankelijk opnieuw opgehaald en woord voor woord bevestigd tegenover de geciteerde bron tijdens onze onderbouwingsaudit.

   Berekening

   Mäcken, Präg, Hess & Ellwardt (2022), Journal of Social Policy 51(2):435–459, using longitudinal SHARE data from 15 European countries across 7 waves (2004–2017), 19,716 respondents / 131,669 person-years. This study defines involuntary exit narrowly as worker-reported involuntary labor-market exit (not all employer-driven displacement), yielding 9% — a tighter construct than the OECD/HRS "any involuntary employer-driven separation before retirement." It is cited here as the European lower bound and a verified SHARE corroboration that involuntary early exit is a real, measurable transition (mean age 58.8, ~3 years earlier than voluntary exit). The construct gap between this narrow 9% and the broad US HRS 56% is what the 0.35 midpoint spans, and is flagged in the caveats.

3. [3] ProPublica / Urban Institute — If You're Over 50, Chances Are the Decision to Leave a Job Won't Be Yours Gerenommeerde referentie

   If You're Over 50, Chances Are the Decision to Leave a Job Won't Be Yours

   Statistiek

   56% of full-time US workers 50+ experience at least one involuntary job displacement before retirement; most never fully recover wage parity

   Fragment

   “"About 56 percent of workers 50 and older are laid off, forced out or obligated to leave an employer at least once before they retire. Many experience devastating financial consequences: among those forced out, only one in ten earns as much in their next job, and many end up permanently on lower incomes or retire earlier than planned. The analysis draws on the Health and Retirement Study, a nationally representative longitudinal survey of US adults over 50." ”

   Brongegevens van

   2018-12-28

   Geraadpleegd

   2026-05-04 · gearchiveerde kopie

   Berekening

   ProPublica/Urban Institute analysis of the US Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a nationally representative longitudinal survey. The 56% figure is the US-specific anchor; it is cited as the high end of the uncertainty range, not the headline. The OECD multi-country figure (30–40%) is the headline because the question is framed globally. The US rate is higher partly due to weaker employment protections relative to European comparators in SHARE.