Hoe groot is de kans op een ernstige bijwerking van een routinevaccinatie?

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2/3 bronnen onafhankelijk woordelijk geverifieerd tegenover de geciteerde bron

1. [1] Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology / McNeil MM, Weintraub ES, Duffy J, et al. (PubMed / NLM) — Risk of anaphylaxis after vaccination in children and adults Geverifieerd Vakgenoten-beoordeeld

   Risk of anaphylaxis after vaccination in children and adults

   Statistiek

   33 confirmed vaccine-triggered anaphylaxis cases across 25,173,965 doses in the Vaccine Safety Datalink, 2009-2011; rate of 1.31 per million doses (95% CI 0.90-1.84); zero deaths, one hospitalization

   Fragment

   “"We identified 33 confirmed vaccine-triggered anaphylaxis cases that occurred after 25,173,965 vaccine doses. The rate of anaphylaxis was 1.31 (95% CI, 0.90-1.84) per million vaccine doses." ”

   Brongegevens van

   2016-03-01

   Geraadpleegd

   2026-04-11 · gearchiveerde kopie

   Verificatie

   Fragment onafhankelijk opnieuw opgehaald en woord voor woord bevestigd tegenover de geciteerde bron tijdens onze onderbouwingsaudit.

   Berekening

   McNeil et al. is a prospective cohort analysis across five Vaccine Safety Datalink sites over 2009-2011. The 33-case numerator divided by the 25,173,965-dose denominator gives the headline rate of ~1.31 per million doses used directly as the native value. Normalized value = numerator / denominator = 33 / 25,173,965 ≈ 1.31 × 10^-6. Uncertainty band uses the paper’s own 95% confidence interval of 0.90 to 1.84 per million, i.e. 9.0 × 10^-7 to 1.84 × 10^-6. Note: incorporating the mRNA myocarditis signal (40.6 per million = 4.06 × 10^-5) would widen the band considerably, but that signal is subgroup- and vaccine-specific and is reported separately in the regional_breakdown. The paper separately reports that all 33 cases recovered, with no deaths and only a single hospitalization, which is the basis for the “resolves without lasting harm in most cases” framing in the long-form body.

   Onafhankelijkheid

   VSD-based. Draws on the same five-site cohort that CDC uses for most of its per-dose vaccine safety surveillance. Subsequent reviews (e.g., Dreskin et al. in Current Treatment Options in Allergy 2019) cite this paper as the canonical US per-dose anaphylaxis rate.

2. [2] Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report / Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — Use of mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine After Reports of Myocarditis Among Vaccine Recipients: Update from the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices — United States, June 2021 Geverifieerd Overheidsrapport

   Use of mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine After Reports of Myocarditis Among Vaccine Recipients: Update from the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices — United States, June 2021

   Statistiek

   40.6 myocarditis cases reported per million second doses of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine in males aged 12-29; 62.8 per million in males 12-17 and 50.5 per million in males 18-24

   Fragment

   “"Myocarditis reporting rates were 40.6 cases per million second doses of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines administered to males aged 12−29 years." ”

   Brongegevens van

   2021-07-09

   Geraadpleegd

   2026-04-11 · gearchiveerde kopie

   Verificatie

   Fragment onafhankelijk opnieuw opgehaald en woord voor woord bevestigd tegenover de geciteerde bron tijdens onze onderbouwingsaudit.

   Berekening

   The MMWR report is the ACIP / Shimabukuro presentation that crystallized the myocarditis signal. Used here not as the headline number but as the counter-example that explains why Likelier reports real SAE signals even when they are small. The 40.6 per million figure is approximately 30 times the all-vaccine anaphylaxis baseline of 1.31 per million, which is why the long-form body singles it out: it is the one recent routine-schedule vaccine SAE signal that is meaningfully above the century-average background rate. The same MMWR and follow-up CDC clinical guidance emphasize that the majority of reported myocarditis cases were mild and self-resolving with conservative management, which is what determines how Likelier reports the signal: a real elevated rate, a real clinical follow-up burden, but overwhelmingly mild outcomes.

   Onafhankelijkheid

   This is the CDC / ACIP primary surveillance report, drawing on VAERS and V-Safe data which are the US federal vaccine safety monitoring systems. The clinical and cardiology follow-up literature (Mevorach et al. NEJM 2021, Witberg et al. NEJM 2021, Patone et al. Nature Medicine 2022) replicates the signal in independent Israeli and UK datasets, so the effect itself is not a single-source artefact even though the MMWR number is cited here as the US authoritative figure.

3. [3] Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report / Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — Cardiac Complications After SARS-CoV-2 Infection and mRNA COVID-19 Vaccination — PCORnet, United States, January 2021-January 2022 Overheidsrapport

   Cardiac Complications After SARS-CoV-2 Infection and mRNA COVID-19 Vaccination — PCORnet, United States, January 2021-January 2022

   Statistiek

   Comparing infected persons with second-dose mRNA vaccine recipients, risk ratios for cardiac outcomes were 6.7-8.5 in males 18-29 and 10.8-115.2 in males 30 and older; all risk ratios statistically significant

   Fragment

   “"RRs for cardiac outcomes comparing infected persons with first dose recipients were 7.2-61.8, and with second dose recipients, were 6.7-8.5; all RRs were statistically significant." ”

   Brongegevens van

   2022-04-08

   Geraadpleegd

   2026-07-03 · gearchiveerde kopie

   Berekening

   PCORnet multi-site EHR study (40 health systems) comparing cardiac-outcome incidence after a positive SARS-CoV-2 test versus after first or second mRNA COVID-19 vaccine dose, by age and sex. Grounds the body-text comparison that infection carries a substantially higher cardiac-complication risk than vaccination in the same demographic: RR 6.7-8.5 in males 18-29 versus second-dose recipients, rising to 10.8-115.2 in males 30 and older (per the report's age-stratified tables). Replaces an earlier unsourced blanket "six to ten times ... same age and sex subgroup" framing, which did not distinguish age bands that in fact range roughly 7x to over 100x.

   Onafhankelijkheid

   CDC-authored PCORnet analysis, methodologically distinct from the ACIP/VAERS-based MMWR source above (different surveillance system: electronic health records across a research network rather than passive adverse-event reporting), reaching a consistent conclusion.