Каковы шансы умереть преждевременно от загрязнения воздуха?

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1. [1] World Health Organization — Ambient (outdoor) air pollution — fact sheet Правительственный отчёт

   Ambient (outdoor) air pollution — fact sheet

   Статистика

   Ambient air pollution is estimated to have caused 4.2 million premature deaths worldwide in 2019

   Выдержка

   “"Ambient (outdoor) air pollution is estimated to have caused 4.2 million premature deaths worldwide in 2019. Some 89% of those premature deaths occurred in low- and middle-income countries, and the greatest number in the WHO South-East Asia and Western Pacific regions." ”

   Данные источника:

   2024-12-19

   Дата обращения

   2026-04-18 · архивная копия

   Расчёт

   The WHO 4.2 million global figure sets the worldwide scale. To derive a US share: the GBD 2019 attributes roughly 100,000–200,000 US deaths to ambient PM2.5, consistent with the US having ~5% of world population but much lower average PM2.5 exposure (~8 µg/m³ vs global population-weighted ~40 µg/m³). The WHO figure is used as the global anchor; the US-specific estimate comes from EPA/HEI and GBD sources below.

   Независимость

   WHO draws on IHME GBD estimates for its headline figure but applies its own methodology for risk-factor attribution. Partially dependent on GBD 2019 data cited separately below.

2. [2] Health Effects Institute / IHME (State of Global Air 2024, GBD 2021) — New State of Global Air Report Finds Air Pollution is Second Leading Risk Factor for Death Worldwide Авторитетный справочник

   New State of Global Air Report Finds Air Pollution is Second Leading Risk Factor for Death Worldwide

   Статистика

   Air pollution ranked as the second-leading risk factor for death globally in 2021, accounting for 8.1 million deaths; the report also quantified NO2 exposure and health effects for the first time

   Выдержка

   “"Air pollution now ranks as the second leading risk factor for death, accounting for 8.1 million deaths globally" and "For the first time, this year's report includes exposure levels and related health effects of nitrogen dioxide (NO2). Traffic exhaust is a major source of NO2, which means densely populated urban areas, particularly in high-income countries, often see the highest levels of NO2 exposures and health impacts." ”

   Данные источника:

   2024-06-18

   Дата обращения

   2026-06-14 · архивная копия

   Расчёт

   State of Global Air 2024 (HEI/IHME, drawing on GBD 2021) updates the global anchor from the WHO 4.2 million / GBD 2019 4.14 million ambient-PM2.5 figures to a combined air-pollution total of 8.1 million deaths in 2021 — now the second-leading global mortality risk factor, behind only high blood pressure. The larger total reflects (a) a 2021 base year vs 2019, (b) inclusion of NO2 and ozone alongside ambient and household PM2.5, and (c) updated GBD 2021 exposure-response curves. The report does not publish a US-specific attributable death count that differs from the ~100,000–200,000/yr range already used for the US-adult-lifetime headline, so the normalized US lifetime estimate (0.035) is unchanged. This source is added as the current global anchor and as the first authoritative quantification of NO2 health effects, whose exposure is concentrated in dense high-income urban / heavy-traffic settings (already captured by the highway-proximity factor below).

   Независимость

   State of Global Air 2024 is the HEI/IHME GBD 2021 reporting product and is therefore methodologically continuous with the GBD 2019 Lancet analysis cited below — treat as the updated edition of the same GBD lineage, not an independent line of evidence.

3. [3] The Lancet (GBD 2019 Risk Factors Collaborators) — Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 Рецензируемая публикация

   Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

   Статистика

   Ambient particulate matter pollution was the sixth-leading risk factor for death globally in 2019, responsible for 4.14 million deaths (95% UI 3.45–4.80 million)

   Выдержка

   “"In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factors globally for attributable deaths were high systolic blood pressure (10.8 million deaths), tobacco (8.71 million), dietary risks (7.94 million), air pollution (6.67 million, of which ambient particulate matter 4.14 million), and high fasting plasma glucose (6.50 million)." ”

   Данные источника:

   2020-10-17

   Дата обращения

   2026-04-18 · архивная копия

   Расчёт

   GBD 2019 assigns 4.14 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 3.45–4.80 million) to ambient particulate matter pollution globally. For the US specifically, GBD 2019 country-level results estimate approximately 100,000– 200,000 attributable deaths, depending on the concentration-response function used. The annual US attributable mortality rate of ~30–60 per 100,000 is then compounded over the 59-year horizon using age-weighted life-table methods to arrive at the 0.035 central lifetime estimate.

   Независимость

   GBD 2019 is methodologically independent from the Pope et al. ACS CPS-II cohort studies and from the Burnett GEMM model, though GEMM has influenced GBD exposure-response curves in later iterations.

4. [4] JAMA (Pope, Burnett, Thun, Calle, Krewski, Ito, Thurston) — Lung Cancer, Cardiopulmonary Mortality, and Long-term Exposure to Fine Particulate Air Pollution Первичное исследование

   Lung Cancer, Cardiopulmonary Mortality, and Long-term Exposure to Fine Particulate Air Pollution

   Статистика

   Each 10 µg/m³ increase in fine particulate air pollution was associated with approximately 4%, 6%, and 8% increased risk of all-cause, cardiopulmonary, and lung cancer mortality, respectively

   Выдержка

   “"Each 10-µg/m³ elevation in fine particulate air pollution was associated with approximately a 4%, 6%, and 8% increased risk of all-cause, cardiopulmonary, and lung cancer mortality, respectively." ”

   Данные источника:

   2002-03-06

   Дата обращения

   2026-04-18

   Расчёт

   Pope et al. 2002 is the landmark ACS Cancer Prevention Study II cohort analysis linking long-term PM2.5 exposure to mortality. The 6% increase in cardiopulmonary mortality per 10 µg/m³ is the core concentration-response coefficient used by EPA in its Integrated Science Assessment for Particulate Matter. At the US national average exposure of ~8 µg/m³ (compared to a counterfactual of ~2.4 µg/m³ per GBD), the excess relative risk is modest for any single individual but applies to the entire population, generating the large attributable death count. The cohort followed ~500,000 adults in 116 metropolitan areas over 16 years.

   Независимость

   Pope et al. ACS CPS-II is the foundational independent cohort study. GBD and WHO estimates ultimately calibrate their concentration-response functions partly on this study plus the Harvard Six Cities study, so they are not fully independent — but the cohort data itself is primary.

5. [5] PNAS (Burnett et al.) — Global estimates of mortality associated with long-term exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter Рецензируемая публикация

   Global estimates of mortality associated with long-term exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter

   Статистика

   The Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM) estimates 8.9 million deaths/year globally attributable to ambient PM2.5, roughly double previous WHO/GBD estimates

   Выдержка

   “"We estimated that ambient PM2.5 was associated with 8.9 million deaths in 2015 globally (95% confidence interval 7.5–10.3), which is substantially larger than previous estimates." ”

   Данные источника:

   2018-09-18

   Дата обращения

   2026-04-18

   Расчёт

   The GEMM uses a non-linear concentration-response function that produces higher attributable-mortality estimates than the GBD's integrated-exposure- response (IER) model, especially at low exposure levels relevant to the US. Under the GEMM, the US-specific attributable death count is at the higher end of the 100,000–200,000 range. The GEMM estimates are the basis for the upper bound of the uncertainty interval (0.06). The difference between GBD and GEMM estimates is the primary source of structural uncertainty in this entry.

   Независимость

   Burnett et al. 2018 is methodologically independent of the GBD IER model and provides the strongest alternative concentration-response framework. Burnett is also a co-author on Pope et al. 2002, but the GEMM uses 41 additional cohorts beyond the ACS CPS-II study.

6. [6] US Environmental Protection Agency — Integrated Science Assessment for Particulate Matter Правительственный отчёт

   Integrated Science Assessment for Particulate Matter

   Статистика

   EPA concludes there is a causal relationship between long-term PM2.5 exposure and total (non-accidental) mortality

   Выдержка

   “"The body of evidence is sufficient to conclude that a causal relationship exists between long-term PM2.5 exposure and total (non-accidental) mortality, including cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, as well as lung cancer mortality." ”

   Данные источника:

   2019-12-01

   Дата обращения

   2026-04-18 · архивная копия

   Расчёт

   The EPA ISA is the regulatory basis for US National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for PM2.5 and represents the most comprehensive US institutional assessment of the PM2.5-mortality evidence. EPA's regulatory impact analyses have estimated 100,000+ premature deaths per year at current US ambient PM2.5 levels using Pope et al. and subsequent cohort concentration-response coefficients. This is the domestic institutional anchor for the native figure.

   Независимость

   EPA ISA is an independent institutional review but draws heavily on Pope et al. 2002 and subsequent ACS CPS-II reanalyses for its concentration-response functions. Treat as an authoritative institutional endorsement rather than a fully independent line of evidence.