Каковы шансы умереть от болезни, связанной с курением, будучи постоянным курильщиком?

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1. [1] World Health Organization — Tobacco — fact sheet ↗ 1 other entry Правительственный отчёт

   Tobacco — fact sheet

   See all 2 Likelier entries citing this source →

   Статистика

   Tobacco kills more than 7 million people per year, including 1.6 million non-smokers from secondhand smoke; kills up to half of its users who don't quit

   Выдержка

   “"Tobacco kills more than 7 million people each year, including an estimated 1.6 million non-smokers who are exposed to second-hand smoke. [...] Tobacco kills up to half of its users who don’t quit." ”

   Данные источника:

   2025-07-31

   Дата обращения

   2026-04-11 · архивная копия

   Расчёт

   The WHO "up to half of its users who don’t quit" formulation is the single most widely cited institutional statement of the headline figure. It is the shorthand for the mortality hazard ratios reported in the Doll and Jha cohort studies and is the direct source for the 0.5 point estimate. Paired with the 7 million-deaths-per-year aggregate: across roughly 1.1 billion current smokers worldwide, 7 million deaths/year implies an annual smoking-attributable death rate of ~6.4 per 1,000 smokers, compounded over a 50-year regular-smoking career to roughly 1 − (1 − 0.0064)^50 ≈ 0.28 as a floor, which rises to ~0.5 once the hazard ratio concentration in the second half of life is accounted for (smoking-attributable mortality is dominated by ages 55-80).

   Независимость

   WHO draws on IHME Global Burden of Disease estimates for the 7-million headline and on the Doll / Jha cohort studies (cited separately below) for the "up to half" formulation. Treat WHO as the authoritative institutional endorsement of figures that ultimately trace back to the same underlying cohort literature, not as a fully independent line of evidence.

2. [2] New England Journal of Medicine (Jha, Ramasundarahettige, Landsman, Rostron, Thun, Anderson, McAfee, Peto) — 21st-Century Hazards of Smoking and Benefits of Cessation in the United States Рецензируемая публикация

   21st-Century Hazards of Smoking and Benefits of Cessation in the United States

   Статистика

   Among current smokers aged 25-79, all-cause mortality was ~3x the never-smoker rate; life expectancy shortened by more than 10 years; cessation before age 40 reduces the excess mortality by ~90%

   Выдержка

   “"For participants who were 25 to 79 years of age, the rate of death from any cause among current smokers was about three times that among those who had never smoked. [...] Life expectancy was shortened by more than 10 years among the current smokers, as compared with those who had never smoked. [...] Adults who had quit smoking at 25 to 34, 35 to 44, or 45 to 54 years of age gained about 10, 9, and 6 years of life, respectively, as compared with those who continued to smoke." ”

   Данные источника:

   2013-01-24

   Дата обращения

   2026-04-11 · архивная копия

   Расчёт

   Jha et al. followed ~200,000 US adults via the National Health Interview Survey linked to the National Death Index. The 3x all-cause hazard ratio for current smokers is the primary quantitative basis for the "half die from it" shorthand: if baseline never-smoker all-cause mortality accounts for essentially all never-smoker deaths, then a 3x hazard implies roughly two-thirds of a smoker’s deaths are "excess" and smoking-attributable, which — combined with a premature death rate dominated by ages 55-80 — works out to roughly half of a lifelong-smoker cohort dying from tobacco. The "quit before 40 reduces the risk by about 90%" finding is the basis for the regional_breakdown rows on quitting and for the "quit decades ago" personal-factor multiplier.

   Независимость

   Jha et al. use US NHIS/NDI data and are methodologically independent of the Doll British Doctors cohort and of WHO/IHME modeled estimates. This is the strongest single independent cross-check on the ~50% figure.

3. [3] BMJ (Doll, Peto, Boreham, Sutherland) — Mortality in relation to smoking: 50 years' observations on male British doctors Рецензируемая публикация

   Mortality in relation to smoking: 50 years' observations on male British doctors

   Статистика

   Among men born 1900-1930, prolonged cigarette smoking from early adult life tripled age-specific mortality rates; 10-year average life-expectancy loss vs non-smokers; cessation at 30, 40, 50, 60 gained ~10, 9, 6, 3 years

   Выдержка

   “"Men born in 1900-1930 who smoked only cigarettes and continued smoking died on average about 10 years younger than lifelong non-smokers. [...] Among the men born around 1920, prolonged cigarette smoking from early adult life tripled age specific mortality rates, but cessation at age 50 halved the hazard, and cessation at age 30 avoided almost all of it. [...] Cessation at age 60, 50, 40, or 30 years gained, respectively, about 3, 6, 9, or 10 years of life expectancy." ”

   Данные источника:

   2004-06-26

   Дата обращения

   2026-04-11 · архивная копия

   Расчёт

   Doll’s 50-year follow-up of the British Doctors cohort is the longest prospective smoking-mortality study in existence and the original source of the "half of smokers killed by their habit" finding. The tripled hazard ratio in the 1920-born subcohort and the 10-year life-expectancy gap are the empirical anchors for the ~50% point estimate. The British Doctors cohort smoked heavier unfiltered cigarettes than modern smokers, which is one reason the Jha US cohort finds a slightly lower hazard ratio (3x all-cause vs Doll’s 3x age-specific in the 1920-born subgroup) but a very similar life-expectancy-loss figure.

   Независимость

   The Doll cohort is independent from Jha’s NHIS/NDI cohort — different population, different era, different follow-up methodology — and provides the longest-duration anchor for the headline figure.

4. [4] US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — About Smoking and Tobacco Use ↗ 1 other entry Правительственный отчёт

   About Smoking and Tobacco Use

   See all 2 Likelier entries citing this source →

   Статистика

   Smoking and secondhand smoke exposure cause >480,000 US deaths per year (~1 in 5 US deaths); >16 million Americans live with a smoking-caused disease

   Выдержка

   “"Smoking and secondhand smoke exposure cause more than 480,000 deaths each year in the United States. This is nearly one in five deaths. More than 16 million Americans live with a disease caused by smoking. [...] Secondhand smoke exposure contributes to over 40,000 deaths among nonsmoking adults and 400 deaths in infants each year." ”

   Данные источника:

   2024-05-15

   Дата обращения

   2026-04-11 · архивная копия

   Расчёт

   CDC’s ~480,000 annual US smoking-attributable deaths figure is the standard domestic headline. Across ~28 million US adult current smokers plus ~51 million former smokers who retain elevated residual risk, that implies an annual smoking-attributable mortality rate on the order of 6 per 1,000 for the combined current-plus-former population, consistent with the ~6.4 per 1,000 global per-smoker figure derived from the WHO 7-million aggregate. Used as the domestic anchor and as the basis for the "smoking causes nearly 1 in 5 US deaths" plain-English framing in the body text.

   Независимость

   CDC smoking-attributable mortality estimates use the SAMMEC (Smoking- Attributable Mortality, Morbidity, and Economic Costs) model, which draws on Cancer Prevention Study II hazard ratios — overlapping but not identical to the cohorts used by Jha and Doll. Treat as partially dependent institutional verification of the ~50% figure rather than a fully independent estimate.

5. [5] US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — Lung Cancer Risk Factors ↗ 1 other entry Правительственный отчёт

   Lung Cancer Risk Factors

   See all 2 Likelier entries citing this source →

   Статистика

   In the United States, cigarette smoking is linked to about 80% of lung cancer deaths

   Выдержка

   “"In the United States, cigarette smoking is linked to about 80% of lung cancer deaths." ”

   Данные источника:

   2026-05-18

   Дата обращения

   2026-07-03 · архивная копия

   Расчёт

   Used as the direct source for the body-text claim that smoking is responsible for roughly 80% of US lung cancer deaths, cited alongside the WHO/Jha/Doll/CDC mortality figures as evidence that this entry is the "meta-entry" behind the site's other tobacco-attributable disease pages (lung cancer, COPD, several other cancers).

   Независимость

   A separate CDC page from the mortality figures above; both are CDC institutional statements but draw on different underlying surveillance systems (cancer registries vs SAMMEC mortality modeling).