冷蔵庫から出したままの食品を食べた場合、食中毒になる確率はどのくらいですか？

以下の各数値は各出典が報告した内容であり、引用した原文の抜粋と算出方法を記載しています。リンクをクリックして直接確認できます。

5/10 件の出典が引用元と一字一句一致することを独立して検証済み

1. [1] US Department of Agriculture, Food Safety and Inspection Service — "Danger Zone" (40 °F - 140 °F) ↗ 1 other entry 政府報告書

   "Danger Zone" (40 °F - 140 °F)

   See all 2 Likelier entries citing this source →

   統計値

   Bacteria multiply rapidly between 40°F and 140°F, doubling in as little as 20 minutes; food should not be left out more than 2 hours (1 hour above 90°F)

   抜粋

   “"Bacteria grow most rapidly in the range of temperatures between 40 °F and 140 °F, doubling in number in as little as 20 minutes. This range of temperatures is often called the 'Danger Zone.' Never leave food out of refrigeration over 2 hours. If the temperature is above 90 °F, food should not be left out more than 1 hour." ”

   出典データ

   2024-07-12

   アクセス日

   2026-04-16 · アーカイブ版

   計算過程

   USDA FSIS defines the operational rule the rest of the entry is testing. The 2-hour / 1-hour-above-90°F guideline is the regulatory baseline against which "temperature abuse" is measured in CDC outbreak investigations. Used here as the definition of the exposure, not as a probability estimate.

   独立性

   FSIS guidance is the governing US regulatory standard; its framing of the Danger Zone is reused by FDA, CDC, and state health departments. Not independent of those downstream sources — upstream of them.

2. [2] CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) Surveillance Summaries — Contributing Factors of Foodborne Illness Outbreaks — National Outbreak Reporting System, United States, 2014-2022 ↗ 2 other entries 政府報告書

   Contributing Factors of Foodborne Illness Outbreaks — National Outbreak Reporting System, United States, 2014-2022

   See all 3 Likelier entries citing this source →

   統計値

   Among 2,677 foodborne outbreaks 2014-2022, 'allowing foods to remain out of temperature control' during preparation contributed to 9.9-15.2% and during service/display to 8.9-13.6%; 'improper cooling' contributed to 8.8-17.3%

   抜粋

   “"Allowing foods to remain out of temperature control during preparation contributed to 15.2% of outbreaks during 2014-2016, 12.2% during 2017-2019, and 9.9% during 2020-2022. Allowing foods to remain out of temperature control during food service or display contributed to 13.6%, 10.4%, and 8.9%, respectively, across the three periods. Improper cooling of food contributed to 9.4%, 8.8%, and 10.9%." ”

   出典データ

   2025-03-13

   アクセス日

   2026-04-16 · アーカイブ版

   計算過程

   CDC NORS is the canonical US surveillance system for outbreak contributing factors. Summing the three temperature-related factors gives an upper envelope of roughly 30-40% of outbreaks, but the categories overlap (an outbreak can be coded with multiple contributing factors), so we deflate to ~20% as the central estimate for the share of US foodborne illness where temperature abuse was meaningfully involved. Applied to Scallan's 48 million illnesses/year: 0.20 × 48e6 ≈ 9.6 million cases/year, or ~1 in 35 of the US population. Over 59 adult-remaining years: 1 - (1 - 0.029)^59 ≈ 0.82.

   独立性

   NORS draws on the same state and local public-health reporting pipeline as CDC FoodNet and the Scallan et al. estimates; treat as a methodological sibling rather than a fully independent data source.

3. [3] US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — About Food Safety 検証済み ↗ 3 other entries 政府報告書

   About Food Safety

   See all 4 Likelier entries citing this source →

   統計値

   CDC estimates 48 million illnesses, 128,000 hospitalizations, and 3,000 deaths per year from foodborne illness in the US

   抜粋

   “"CDC estimates that each year 48 million people get sick from a foodborne illness, 128,000 are hospitalized, and 3,000 die." ”

   出典データ

   2024-01-01

   アクセス日

   2026-04-16 · アーカイブ版

   検証

   グラウンディング監査の際、抜粋を引用元から独立して再取得し、原文と一字一句一致することを確認しました。

   計算過程

   The CDC headline total provides the denominator for the normalized figure. 48 million illnesses / 330 million US residents ≈ 14.5% of Americans per year experience a foodborne illness from any cause. Multiplied by the ~20% share attributable to temperature abuse (NORS) gives the ~2.9% per year figure compounded in the normalization.

   独立性

   Restates Scallan et al. 2011; not independent of the MMWR contributing- factors analysis, which also uses CDC surveillance data.

4. [4] Clinical Infectious Diseases / Bennett et al. (CDC) — Foodborne Disease Outbreaks Caused by Bacillus cereus, Clostridium perfringens, and Staphylococcus aureus — United States, 1998-2008 査読済み

   Foodborne Disease Outbreaks Caused by Bacillus cereus, Clostridium perfringens, and Staphylococcus aureus — United States, 1998-2008

   統計値

   1,229 US outbreaks 1998-2008 from three temperature-abuse-linked pathogens; errors in food processing and preparation reported in 93% of outbreaks; median attack rates 75% (B. cereus), 87% (S. aureus)

   抜粋

   “"During 1998-2008, 1229 foodborne outbreaks caused by Bacillus cereus, Clostridium perfringens, and Staphylococcus aureus were reported in the United States [...] Errors in food processing and preparation were commonly reported (93%), regardless of etiology. Contamination by food workers was common only among S. aureus outbreaks (55%). Meat or poultry dishes were commonly implicated in C. perfringens (63%) and S. aureus (55%) outbreaks, and rice dishes were commonly implicated in B. cereus outbreaks (50%)." ”

   出典データ

   2013-04-16

   アクセス日

   2026-04-16 · アーカイブ版

   計算過程

   Establishes the biological mechanism behind the "left out food" scenario: the three pathogens whose disease is overwhelmingly driven by temperature abuse (they produce heat-stable toxins or form spores that survive initial cooking, then proliferate when the cooked food sits at room temperature). The 87% median attack rate for staph outbreaks is the per-exposure figure once a food has been seriously abused — not directly the headline, but the upper anchor for the "long severe abuse" row of the regional breakdown.

   独立性

   Bennett et al. is a peer-reviewed CDC analysis of Foodborne Disease Outbreak Surveillance System data over a distinct time window from the later NORS 2014-2022 summary; treat as a complementary deeper look at the pathogens most associated with temperature abuse.

5. [5] CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report — Outbreak of Staphylococcal Food Poisoning from a Military Unit Lunch Party — United States, July 2012 検証済み 政府報告書

   Outbreak of Staphylococcal Food Poisoning from a Military Unit Lunch Party — United States, July 2012

   統計値

   22 of 35 interviewed attendees (62% attack rate) became ill after eating perlo held in an unheated oven for ~8 hours overnight; reheating failed to destroy heat-stable enterotoxin A

   抜粋

   “"Of the 40 attendees, 35 (88%) were interviewed, of whom 22 (62%) met the modified case definition [...] The pot of cooked perlo then was placed in an unheated oven for approximately 8 hours overnight [...] Staphylococcal enterotoxins are resistant to heat treatment; subsequent rewarming of the perlo for approximately 1 hour the following day did not destroy the heat-stable toxin." ”

   出典データ

   2013-12-20

   アクセス日

   2026-04-16 · アーカイブ版

   検証

   グラウンディング監査の際、抜粋を引用元から独立して再取得し、原文と一字一句一致することを確認しました。

   計算過程

   Concrete attack rate for the "long severe abuse" subgroup: a high-protein cooked dish left at room temperature overnight, then reheated, produced a 62% illness rate among those who ate it. This is the anchor for the 0.60 probability in the regional_breakdown row for overnight abuse of a high-risk food. Reheating did not rescue the food because the staph enterotoxin is heat-stable — which is why the "just reheat it" intuition is mechanically wrong for this pathogen class.

   独立性

   A specific outbreak investigation, independent of the aggregate NORS and Bennett analyses. Provides the measured per-event attack rate those aggregate sources cannot.

6. [6] US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — Breast Milk Storage and Preparation 政府報告書

   Breast Milk Storage and Preparation

   統計値

   CDC guidance: freshly expressed breast milk can be stored at room temperature (77°F or colder) for up to 4 hours, refrigerated for up to 4 days, frozen for 6-12 months

   抜粋

   “"Freshly expressed or pumped milk can be stored: At room temperature (77°F or colder) for up to 4 hours. In the refrigerator for up to 4 days. In the freezer for about 6 months is best; up to 12 months is acceptable." ”

   出典データ

   2024-06-28

   アクセス日

   2026-04-16 · アーカイブ版

   計算過程

   The breastmilk carve-out is qualitatively different from the general 2-hour rule: CDC allows up to 4 hours at room temperature because human milk contains immunoglobulins, lactoferrin, and live leukocytes that suppress bacterial growth substantially better than most cooked foods. Cited here to support the breastmilk-specific row in the regional breakdown rather than the general headline.

   独立性

   CDC breastfeeding guidance is methodologically distinct from the FSIS Danger Zone framework; the 4-hour limit is derived from human-milk microbiology and Academy of Breastfeeding Medicine research rather than from the USDA general-food model.

7. [7] FEMS Microbiology Reviews (Stenfors Arnesen, Fagerlund, Granum) — From soil to gut: Bacillus cereus and its food poisoning toxins 検証済み 査読済み

   From soil to gut: Bacillus cereus and its food poisoning toxins

   統計値

   The emetic toxin cereulide is resistant to acid, proteolysis, and heat and is not destroyed by reheating food held at room temperature after a first heating; emetic illness incubates in 0.5-6 h and lasts 6-24 h

   抜粋

   “"Because cereulide is resistant towards acid conditions, proteolysis and heat, it will not be destroyed by gastric acid, the proteolytic enzymes of the intestinal tract or by reheating foods that have been stored at room temperature after a first heating. [...] The duration of the emetic disease is normally 6-24 h." ”

   出典データ

   2008-07-01

   アクセス日

   2026-06-20 · アーカイブ版

   検証

   グラウンディング監査の際、抜粋を引用元から独立して再取得し、原文と一字一句一致することを確認しました。

   計算過程

   The mechanism behind "fried rice syndrome." Bacillus cereus spores survive cooking; when cooked rice or pasta then sits at room temperature the bacteria multiply and produce the heat-stable emetic toxin cereulide. Because the toxin is preformed and heat-stable, reheating kills the bacteria but not the toxin — so the operative variable is hours held at room temperature, not whether the food is later reheated. Supports the reheated-rice paragraph; not a probability input.

   独立性

   Peer-reviewed microbiology review; mechanistically distinct from the surveillance and outbreak sources, which count cases rather than explain toxin chemistry.

8. [8] Emerging Infectious Diseases / Scallan, Hoekstra, Angulo, et al. (CDC) — Foodborne Illness Acquired in the United States—Major Pathogens 査読済み

   Foodborne Illness Acquired in the United States—Major Pathogens

   統計値

   CDC/Scallan model: Bacillus cereus causes ~63,400 domestically acquired US foodborne illnesses per year (90% CrI 15,719-147,354), ~20 hospitalizations (0-85), and 0 deaths

   抜粋

   “"[Tables 2-3, Bacillus cereus, foodborne, estimated mean annual US burden with 90% credible intervals] Estimated illnesses: 63,400 (15,719-147,354). Hospitalizations: 20 (0-85). Deaths: 0." ”

   出典データ

   2011-01-01

   アクセス日

   2026-06-20 · アーカイブ版

   計算過程

   Anchors the honest scale of the B. cereus / fried-rice risk. The emetic illness is real and not rare — tens of thousands of US cases a year, almost all unreported because the vomiting is short and self-limiting — but the modeled national death count rounds to zero. The 63,400 figure is all B. cereus (emetic plus diarrheal, not decomposable by syndrome); rice- and pasta-borne emetic illness is a subset of it. Used for scale and the death framing, not added to this entry's headline arithmetic.

   独立性

   The Scallan national burden model shares the CDC surveillance lineage of the NORS and FoodNet sources already cited; treated as a methodological sibling and used here only for the pathogen-specific B. cereus line.

9. [9] Journal of Clinical Microbiology / Naranjo, Denayer, Botteldoorn, et al. — Sudden death of a young adult associated with Bacillus cereus food poisoning 検証済み 一次研究

   Sudden death of a young adult associated with Bacillus cereus food poisoning

   統計値

   Case report: a 20-year-old man in Brussels died after eating pasta (spaghetti) contaminated with emetic Bacillus cereus; cereulide measured at 14.8 µg/g in the meal

   抜粋

   “"A lethal intoxication case, which occurred in Brussels, Belgium, is described. A 20-year-old man died following the ingestion of pasta contaminated with Bacillus cereus. Emetic strains of B. cereus were isolated, and high levels of cereulide (14.8 μg/g) were found in the spaghetti meal." ”

   出典データ

   2011-12-01

   アクセス日

   2026-06-20 · アーカイブ版

   検証

   グラウンディング監査の際、抜粋を引用元から独立して再取得し、原文と一字一句一致することを確認しました。

   計算過程

   One of the two famous fatal case reports behind "fried rice syndrome." It documents that B. cereus emetic intoxication can kill, but it is a single case report — the kind of isolated event that, aggregated nationally, rounds to the 0 deaths/year Scallan models. Cited as the vivid tail, not as a rate. The widely repeated "left out for five days" detail circulates in popular retellings but is not stated in this record and is not asserted here.

   独立性

   An individual forensic case report, independent of the surveillance burden models; supplies the severity ceiling the aggregate estimates cannot.

10. [10] Journal of Clinical Microbiology / Dierick, Van Coillie, Swiecicka, et al. — Fatal family outbreak of Bacillus cereus-associated food poisoning 検証済み 一次研究

    Fatal family outbreak of Bacillus cereus-associated food poisoning

    統計値

    Case report: a fatal case of liver failure after consumption of pasta salad, in a family outbreak of B. cereus emetic food poisoning, demonstrating the possible severity of the emetic syndrome

    抜粋

    “"Bacillus cereus is a well-known cause of food-borne illness, but infection with this organism is not commonly reported because of its usually mild symptoms. A fatal case due to liver failure after the consumption of pasta salad is described and demonstrates the possible severity of the emetic syndrome." ”

    出典データ

    2005-08-01

    アクセス日

    2026-06-20 · アーカイブ版

    検証

    グラウンディング監査の際、抜粋を引用元から独立して再取得し、原文と一字一句一致することを確認しました。

    計算過程

    The second classic fatal case report. The abstract's own framing — that B. cereus "is not commonly reported because of its usually mild symptoms," yet can in rare cases be fatal — is the perceived-vs-actual thesis in one sentence: an ordinarily trivial illness with a very rare severe tail. Cited for the tail, not a rate.

    独立性

    Independent Belgian case report from a different outbreak and year than Naranjo et al.; together they establish that the fatal tail exists while remaining case-report rare.