証拠の質 4.25/5
8次元のレビュー評価。基準は 品質ルーブリック 。各次元は1〜5で評価。
- D1 出典への根拠
- 4/5
- D2 出典の権威性
- 4/5
- D3 算術
- 4/5
- D4 不確実性
- 4/5
- D5 範囲
- 4/5
- D6 文章
- 5/5
- D7 認識の誠実性
- 4/5
- D8 注意事項の完全性
- 5/5
≈ 同じくらいの確率
認知リスク
リレー盗難や電波増幅による車両盗難への恐怖を具体的に測定した公開調査はありません。最も近い手がかりは、2024年と2025年を通じた英国での大量の報道と保険会社のマーケティングで、キーレス車がオーナーの私設車道から60秒未満で容易に盗まれると描写しており、また英国の車両の4分の1以上が脆弱なキーレスエントリーを備えているという内務省の声明もあります。英国の都市部でキーレスのプレミアムモデルを所有する人々が最も強い懸念を示しており、一部のレンジローバーの派生モデルはロンドンで保険加入が困難になりました。ほとんどのオーナーが抱く直感は、夜間に屋外に駐車したキーレス車が電子的盗難の相当かつ反復的なリスクにさらされているというもので、その恐怖は米国よりも英国と欧州大陸に集中しています。
概算: 英国のキーレス車オーナーの多くは、車の使用期間全体でおよそ10分の1の確率のようなものを直感しています
出典: 編集部の直感(調査に基づかない)
実際のリスク
英国のキーレス車両の年間約0.65%(電子的盗難、リレー主導)
英国のキーレスエントリー車両
計算を表示
サブグループ:キーレスエントリー車両を所有する英国居住者で、約12年間の所有期間(英国の車両の平均年齢に一致)にわたるもの。英国では年間およそ130,000件の車両盗難が記録されています(RUSIは2022-23年に英国全体で136,396件と報告;ONSの警察記録データの二次要約は、2025年3月末までの年度でイングランドとウェールズについて約121,825件を挙げていますが、その特定の件数はONSの一次資料ページでは確認されておらず、概算として扱います)。車両まるごとの盗難のうち、ONS犯罪調査はおよそ半分をキーフォブ信号の操作に帰属させています:2023-24年に57.6%で、2024-25年には46.7%に低下;約50%を取ると、年間約65,000件の電子的(リレー主導)盗難となります。内務省は英国の車両の27%超が脆弱なキーレスエントリーを備えていると推定しており、約36,000,000台という車両基盤に対して約10,000,000台のキーレス車両となります。キーレス車両あたりの年間電子的盗難率 ~= 65,000 / 10,000,000 = 0.0065。12年間で累積すると:1 - (1 - 0.0065)^12 = 0.075で、約13分の1です。log10(0.075) = -1.12。CSEWの手口別割合は被害者申告であり(オーナーはしばしば車がどのように盗まれたか分からない)、年ごとに約11ポイント変動するため、また、リレーはCANインジェクションやキー複製も含むより広範な電子的盗難カテゴリーの中の主要な手口であるため、幅は広くなっています。
注意事項: covered_in_prose
covered_in_prose
リスクはどう変わるか
見出しの数値は大きく異なる状況の平均です。シナリオや文脈による確率の違いは以下の通りです:
13分の1 · 7.5%
The heartland. ONS CSEW attributes roughly half of whole-vehicle thefts to key-fob signal manipulation (57.6% in 2023-24), up from 13% in 2018-19, against a fleet where the Home Office says over 27% of vehicles have vulnerable keyless entry. The ~1-in-13 central estimate is the UK keyless-owner figure.
17分の1 · 6.0%
Broadly comparable exposure. ADAC testing found the overwhelming majority of keyless models sold in Europe defeatable by relay amplification (230 of 237 models in one widely-cited test). Underlying national theft rates vary, so the figure is approximate and somewhat below the UK; no single EU-wide per-keyless-vehicle relay rate is published.
125分の1
Far lower and poorly tracked. NICB and FBI UCR do not break vehicle theft out by relay method; the 2022-2024 US theft spike was driven by the Kia/Hyundai immobilizer exploit (a physical-key vector), not relay attacks. Relay theft occurs but is a small, unmeasured share, so this is an order-of-magnitude placeholder, not a measured rate.
バーの長さと濃淡は、これらのシナリオを他のリスクとではなく、互いに比較して順位付けしたものです。正確な確率は各項目の横に表示されています。
関連するリスク
似たテーマの他のリスク — 関連する不安を探るために。
比較対象を選択
Across the UK, roughly 130,000 vehicles are stolen each year, and the Office for National Statistics’ Crime Survey now attributes about half of whole-vehicle thefts to manipulating the key fob’s signal. That share was 13% in 2018-19 and reached 58% by 2023-24 before easing to 47% the following year. Set against a fleet in which the Home Office estimates more than one in four vehicles carry vulnerable keyless entry, the annual rate works out to roughly 0.65% of keyless cars, or about 1 in 13 over a twelve-year ownership life. That places relay theft above the lifetime odds of a stroke and well above the all-method US vehicle-theft figure, though still well below the lifetime chance of a home burglary.
The mechanism is what makes the number unusual. A pair of operators with a signal repeater stand one near the house and one by the car; the device extends the fob’s range so the car believes its key is present, and the whole sequence runs in under a minute with no forced entry and no alarm. ADAC’s testing in Germany found the technique defeated the overwhelming majority of keyless models, 230 of 237 in one run, across every price tier. The vulnerability is in the design of passive entry itself, not in a single manufacturer’s mistake, which is why the UK figure has climbed in step with the spread of keyless cars rather than tracking any one model.
The estimate is a UK keyless-owner number and travels poorly. In the US, the 2022-2024 theft surge ran on the Kia and Hyundai ignition exploit, a physical-key vector, and neither NICB nor the FBI breaks theft out by relay method, so the American figure is far lower and effectively unmeasured. Within the subgroup the spread is also wide: the survey data are victim-reported, owners often cannot say how their car went, and the year-to-year method share swings by ten points. A late-model car with a motion-sensing or ultra-wideband fob that ignores an amplified signal sits at the low end of the band; an older keyless car left on a driveway with the fob by the front door sits at the high end. The band from 1 in 33 to 1 in 7 reflects that the headline is a moving target, not a settled rate.
関連する豆知識
英国のキーレス車の約0.65%が毎年電子的に盗まれており、典型的な12年の保有期間では約13台に1台にまで積み上がる。聞こえほど珍しいハイテク犯罪ではない。
根拠台帳
以下の各数値は各出典が報告した内容であり、引用した原文の抜粋と算出方法を記載しています。リンクをクリックして直接確認できます。
4/5 件の出典が引用元と一字一句一致することを独立して検証済み
-
[1] Office for National Statistics — Crime in England and Wales: year ending March 2025 検証済み
Crime in England and Wales: year ending March 2025- 統計値
Police recorded vehicle offences fell 8% to 350,070 in the year ending March 2025- 抜粋
“Police recorded vehicle offences decreased by 8% (to 350,070 offences) during the same period.”
- 出典データ
- 2025-07-24
- アクセス日
- 2026-06-13
- 検証
- グラウンディング監査の際、抜粋を引用元から独立して再取得し、原文と一字一句一致することを確認しました。
- 計算過程
- Establishes the scale and direction of UK vehicle crime from the authoritative national statistician. 'Vehicle offences' is broader than theft of a vehicle (it includes theft from vehicles and interference), so this figure is used to anchor order of magnitude, not as the theft numerator directly. The theft-of-vehicle subtotal (~120,000-136,000/yr) is taken from RUSI and secondary ONS summaries.
- 独立性
- ONS police-recorded crime is independent of the insurer (Tracker, ABI) and think-tank (RUSI) sources used elsewhere in this entry.
-
[2] Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) — Combatting Vehicle Theft in the UK: Strategies Against Organised Crime 検証済み
Combatting Vehicle Theft in the UK: Strategies Against Organised Crime- 統計値
Over 80% increase in vehicles stolen in England and Wales from 2013 to 2023; RUSI identifies relay attacks and CAN-injection as primary methods- 抜粋
“an increase of over 80% in the number of vehicles stolen in England and Wales from 2013 to 2023”
- 出典データ
- 2025-06-01
- アクセス日
- 2026-06-13
- 検証
- グラウンディング監査の際、抜粋を引用元から独立して再取得し、原文と一字一句一致することを確認しました。
- 計算過程
- RUSI's June 2025 work documents the reversal of two decades of declining UK vehicle theft and identifies relay/signal-amplification and CAN-injection as the lead methods. The RUSI report itself frames keyless attacks as a primary method; the skeptical reading (that the evidence for the extent of keyless taking is weak) comes from an independent commentary, not from RUSI. The total-thefts figure of 136,396 for 2022-23 and the rate of 4.42 per 1,000 cars are cited in secondary summaries of the RUSI paper and were not confirmed on a RUSI-hosted page, so they are treated as approximate in the normalization.
-
[3] Police Life (reporting Tracker UK data) — Legislation Must Be Enforced As Keyless Thefts Soar — Tracker Reaches 15-Year High in Stolen Vehicle Recovery 検証済み
Legislation Must Be Enforced As Keyless Thefts Soar — Tracker Reaches 15-Year High in Stolen Vehicle Recovery- 統計値
93% of vehicles recovered by Tracker were taken without the keys; over £35m of vehicles recovered Jan-Oct 2025, a 15-year high- 抜粋
“93% of the vehicles recovered by Tracker, the stolen vehicle recovery (SVR) expert, were taken without the keys”
- 出典データ
- 2025-11-29
- アクセス日
- 2026-06-13 · アーカイブ版
- 検証
- グラウンディング監査の際、抜粋を引用元から独立して再取得し、原文と一字一句一致することを確認しました。
- 計算過程
- Tracker's recovery data confirm that keyless/electronic methods dominate UK whole-vehicle theft. 'Without the keys' is broader than relay specifically (it also captures CAN-injection and cloning), so it supports the electronic-theft category that frames this entry rather than isolating the relay share. Tracker recoveries are a biased sample (only tracked, mostly higher-value vehicles), so the 93% is an upper-bound indicator of the keyless share, not the population rate.
- 独立性
- Tracker is a commercial recovery firm; figure is corroborated directionally by the ONS CSEW method-share and is independent of the ONS and RUSI sources.
-
[4] Nation.Cymru (analysis of ONS data by RTA Law) — Car key hacking cases quadruple in Wales and England 検証済み
Car key hacking cases quadruple in Wales and England- 統計値
Share of car thefts via key-fob signal manipulation rose from 13% (Apr 2018-Mar 2019) to 58% (Apr 2023-Mar 2024) per ONS CSEW- 抜粋
“from Apr 2018 to Mar 2019, only 13% of thefts were committed this way – but this skyrocketed to 58% from Apr 2023 to Mar 2024”
- 出典データ
- 2025-01-20
- アクセス日
- 2026-06-13 · アーカイブ版
- 検証
- グラウンディング監査の際、抜粋を引用元から独立して再取得し、原文と一字一句一致することを確認しました。
- 計算過程
- Provides the electronic-theft method-share used in the numerator. The 58% (2023-24) figure is consistent with the 57.6% whole-vehicle figure that fell to 46.7% in 2024-25 in later CSEW tables; ~50% is used centrally. The underlying data are ONS Crime Survey (victim-reported), which is why method attribution carries error and the uncertainty band is wide.
- 独立性
- Reports a third-party (RTA Law) analysis of the underlying ONS CSEW dataset; the trend is the ONS survey's, not the news outlet's.
-
[5] Auto Express (reporting ADAC / Which? testing) — Almost all keyless car systems vulnerable to relay attacks
Almost all keyless car systems vulnerable to relay attacks- 統計値
Of 237 keyless car models ADAC tested, 230 were vulnerable to relay attacks; only 3 (all Jaguar Land Rover) fully resisted- 抜粋
“230 were vulnerable to relay attacks ... Only 3 models achieved full resistance to keyless attacks (all Jaguar Land Rover vehicles)”
- 出典データ
- 2024-01-01
- アクセス日
- 2026-06-13
- 計算過程
- Supports the EU/Europe regional row: relay vulnerability is near-universal across the keyless fleet, independent of brand tier. ADAC's own time-series shows slow improvement (e.g. 44 of 616 models protected by August 2023), but the protected share has stayed in the single-digit percentages. This is a vulnerability count, not a theft rate, and is used qualitatively in the regional breakdown, not in the numerator. The 2024 date is approximate to the Auto Express report; ADAC updates the test continuously.
- 独立性
- ADAC (German motoring club) testing, reported via Auto Express and corroborated by Which?; independent of the UK crime statistics.







