証拠の質 4.5/5
8次元のレビュー評価。基準は 品質ルーブリック 。各次元は1〜5で評価。
- D1 出典への根拠
- 4/5
- D2 出典の権威性
- 5/5
- D3 算術
- 5/5
- D4 不確実性
- 4/5
- D5 範囲
- 4/5
- D6 文章
- 5/5
- D7 認識の誠実性
- 4/5
- D8 注意事項の完全性
- 5/5
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- あなたの要因
認知リスク
警察業務は最も危険な職業の一つとして広く理解されており、一般の認識は——警察官が待ち伏せされる事件の報道、殉職者の追悼式典、警察官の安全をめぐる政治的議論によって形作られ——それを極めて危険なカテゴリーに位置づける傾向がある。多くの人は、法執行のキャリアには職務中に暴力によって死亡する相当な可能性が伴うと推測するだろう。この恐怖は方向としては正しい——警察業務はほとんどのデスクワークよりも実際に危険である——が、リスクの大きさは一般の想像と職業上の神話が示唆するよりも大幅に低い。警察官のキャリア死亡率に関する一般の推定値を測定した単独の調査は見当たらなかった。ここでの知覚リスクは、メディアでの顕著さと警察官の安全に関する政治的な枠組みに基づく編集上の直観として特徴づけられる。
概算: ほとんどの人は警察官のキャリア死亡率を過大評価している。25年間のキャリアにわたる実際の外傷性殉職リスクは1%未満である
出典: 編集部の直感（調査に基づかない）
実際のリスク
警察官・保安官100,000人あたり年間約11.3件の外傷性労働災害死（BLS CFOI、2023年）
米国の警察官および保安官パトロール官（BLS CFOI職業分類）、2023年
計算を表示
参照サブグループ：25年間のフルキャリアを勤め上げる米国の警察官または保安官パトロール官（最頻のキャリア長で、平均的な就職が25歳前後、ほとんどの州の年金制度のもとで50〜55歳の間に退職することを反映）。見出しの年間率は、BLS致死的労働災害調査（CFOI）による「警察官および保安官パトロール官」の致死的労働災害率、すなわち2023年で警察官100,000人あたり11.3件の死亡（BLS CFOI、USAFacts報告）である。CFOIがここで適切な基準となるのは、構造上カバレッジが一致しているためである——BLSは労働者100,000人（フルタイム換算）あたりの死亡数を算出するため、分子（警察官の死亡）と分母（警察官の労働力）が同じ母集団を表す——そして外傷性の致死的労働「災害」のみを数えており、本項目が定めた範囲（COVID-19を含む病気・疾病による死亡を除外）と一致する。年間率：11.3/100,000 = 0.000113/年。25年間のキャリアにわたる生涯確率：1 − (1 − 0.000113)^25 ≈ 0.00282、0.0028に丸める（約355分の1）。この数値は外傷性の致死的災害のみを対象とし、労働疾病、9月11日関連の疾病、およびCOVID-19による死亡を明示的に除外している。これらはNLEOMFが別途追跡しており、近年の警察官の殉職全体の約35〜50%を占める。FBI LEOKAの生の重罪プラス事故による件数（2019〜2023年の5年平均で年間約104件の死亡）は、以下の出典では死亡の「構成」内訳（警察官の外傷性死亡が重罪行為と事故の間でどう分かれるか）としてのみ保持されている——これらはFBIの600,120という数字で割って警察官1人あたりの率を出すことはしていない。なぜなら600,120は、LEOKAに「暴行」を報告した10,884の機関にのみ所属する警察官の2023年単年の人数であり、全国の宣誓済み労働力ではないからである。全国の死亡数を暴行報告のサブセットの分母で割ることは、分子と分母のカバレッジの不一致であり、警察官1人あたりの率を膨らませる。CFOIはその率がカバレッジ一致しているためこれを回避する。範囲はactivity_specific_lifetimeと宣言されている。これは一般的な米国成人の生涯確率ではなく、定義された職業サブグループに対するキャリア固有のリスクだからである。不確実性の帯：下限（8.2/100,000 → 約0.0020）はより広い「保安サービス」職業グループのBLS CFOI 2023年率（BLS表4）であり、上限（14.4/100,000 → 約0.0036）はLEOKAの年間約104件の死亡平均を、約720,000人の警察官という真の全国フルタイム宣誓済み労働力（FBIに基づく全国集計）で割ったカバレッジ一致のクロスチェックであり、これは死亡率が高かった2021年も反映している。
注意事項: この数値は、BLS致死的労働災害調査で測定された外傷性の致死的労働災害（重罪行為および勤務中の事故）のみを対象としている。労働疾病、化学物質曝露に関連するがん、…
この数値は、BLS致死的労働災害調査で測定された外傷性の致死的労働災害（重罪行為および勤務中の事故）のみを対象としている。労働疾病、化学物質曝露に関連するがん、心疾患、9月11日関連の疾病、およびCOVID-19による死亡は除外されており、これらは全米法執行官記念基金（NLEOMF）が別途追跡し、近年の警察官の殉職全体の約35〜50%を占める。これらのカテゴリーを含めると見出しの数値はおおよそ2倍になる。見出しの率はBLS CFOIの警察官・保安官率（2023年、100,000人あたり11.3件）であり、構造上カバレッジが一致している——労働者100,000人（フルタイム換算）あたりの死亡数である。本項目の以前の版では、代わりにFBI LEOKAの5年間の外傷性死亡平均（年間約104件）を600,120で割っていたが、600,120は2023年にLEOKAへ「暴行」を報告した機関に所属する警察官の人数にすぎず、全国の宣誓済み労働力（約720,000人以上）ではない。その分母は小さすぎて、率を100,000人あたり17.3件に、キャリア数値を231分の1に膨らませていた。修正されたカバレッジ一致の率はより低い。25年というキャリア長は中間値の推定である。20年で退職する警察官もいれば、30年以上勤める者もいる。非致死的な重傷は年間およそ10,000〜20,000件（BLS負傷データ）に上り、外傷性の死者数をはるかに上回る。
関連するリスク
似たテーマの他のリスク — 関連する不安を探るために。
比較対象を選択
The headline career risk for a US police officer dying in the line of duty from violence or accident is roughly 1 in 355 over a 25-year career — about 0.28 percent. That number comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries (CFOI), which put the fatal-occupational-injury rate for police and sheriff’s patrol officers at 11.3 deaths per 100,000 officers in 2023. CFOI is the cleanest basis for this comparison because its rate is coverage-matched — it counts deaths per 100,000 full-time-equivalent workers, so the numerator and denominator describe the same population — and it counts traumatic injuries only, excluding disease and COVID-19. By most occupational safety comparisons, policing is genuinely more dangerous than average American employment — the all-industry occupational traumatic death rate runs around 3.5 per 100,000 workers per year, roughly a third of the law enforcement rate — but far less dangerous than commercial fishing (~100 per 100,000/year), logging (~99 — the deadliest occupation BLS tracks), roofing (~50), or the early US ground combat role in Iraq and Afghanistan (~160–200 per 100,000 deployed service members per year at peak). BLS ranked policing about 20th among occupations for on-the-job deaths in 2023. A career in policing carries several times the traumatic death risk of the average American job, not twenty times.
The wide gap between perception and reality on this question has several sources. News coverage of officer deaths is intense and nationally syndicated; the same death that would attract local coverage for a roofer or a logger receives wall-to-wall attention when it involves a law enforcement officer. Annual memorial ceremonies, legislative debates over officer safety, and the high symbolism attached to the uniform all amplify the salience of each death beyond its statistical weight. The 2019–2023 LEOKA data also show meaningful year-to-year variance: 2021 was the deadliest year in the five-year window, with 73 felonious and 56 accidental deaths (129 total), while 2019 was the lightest at 89 total. The elevated 2021 figure drove coverage suggesting a crisis-level surge; the underlying five-year average smooths that spike to about 104 deaths per year, a figure that has not changed dramatically in a generation. What has changed is the assault rate: the FBI reported 79,091 officer assaults in 2023, the highest in a decade, suggesting that the ratio of serious injuries to fatalities may be shifting even as traumatic deaths themselves remain relatively stable.
One important caveat: the ~1 in 355 figure is the narrow traumatic mortality risk. A broader accounting of occupational hazards substantially changes the picture. The National Law Enforcement Officers Memorial Fund counted 136 total line-of-duty deaths in 2023 — the same year LEOKA’s traumatic count was approximately 92 — because NLEOMF also includes fatal medical events, long-term illness attributed to occupational exposures (9/11 responder cancers, for example), and COVID-19. In recent years, disease and illness categories have accounted for 35–50% of total officer line-of-duty deaths. If those categories are included, the lifetime career mortality figure roughly doubles. The site reports the narrow traumatic figure both because BLS CFOI measures it on a coverage-matched, methodologically consistent basis and because the “occupational disease” attribution question — is this cancer from on-the-job chemical exposure, or coincidental? — is a hard causal problem that the traumatic-injury count wisely declines to attempt.
関連する豆知識
殉職による外傷性の死は、米国の約 800,000 人の宣誓警官のうち年平均およそ 104 件、すなわち 25 年のフルキャリアで約 1 in 310 にあたる。多くの職業に比べれば危険だが、多くの人がこのバッジに思い描く生涯死亡率をはるかに下回る。
根拠台帳
以下の各数値は各出典が報告した内容であり、引用した原文の抜粋と算出方法を記載しています。リンクをクリックして直接確認できます。
1/4 件の出典が引用元と一字一句一致することを独立して検証済み
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[1] Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reporting Program — Law Enforcement Officers Killed and Assaulted (LEOKA) — FBI UCR Program
Law Enforcement Officers Killed and Assaulted (LEOKA) — FBI UCR Program- 統計値
2019–2023 annual felonious and accidental officer deaths: 89, 93, 129, 118, and approximately 92 respectively; five-year mean approximately 104 traumatic deaths per year (used here for death-composition only, not as a per-officer rate)- 抜粋
“"In 2022, 60 officers died as a result of felonious acts and 58 officers died in accidents, for a total of 118 line-of-duty deaths. In 2021, 73 officers were feloniously killed and 56 died accidentally (129 total). From 2021 to 2023, more officers were feloniously killed (194) than in any other consecutive three-year period in the past 20 years." ”
- 出典データ
- 2024-05-14
- アクセス日
- 2026-05-10 · アーカイブ版
- 計算過程
- LEOKA annual reports provide felonious + accidental death counts separately. These are the traumatic categories analogous to "line of duty" in the narrow sense; they exclude illness deaths. Five-year series: 2019 (89) + 2020 (93) + 2021 (129) + 2022 (118) + 2023 (~92) = 521 total / 5 years = 104.2/year. This mean is retained here ONLY as the death-COMPOSITION breakdown — the split of officer traumatic deaths between felonious acts and accidents. It is deliberately NOT divided by the FBI's 600,120 figure to produce a per-officer rate: the 2023 Special Report states that 10,884 agencies employing 600,120 officers reported 79,091 assaults, so 600,120 is the single-year count of officers only at the assault-REPORTING subset of agencies, not the national sworn workforce. Because the LEOKA death numerator spans officers and agencies outside that assault-reporting subset, dividing ~104 by 600,120 (the old basis, which yielded 17.3/100,000 and a 1-in-231 career figure) is a numerator/denominator coverage mismatch that inflates the per-officer rate. The headline rate is instead taken from the coverage-matched BLS CFOI series (11.3 per 100,000 police/sheriff officers, 2023), whose numerator and denominator describe the same population. As a cross-check, dividing ~104 LEOKA deaths by the true national full-time sworn workforce of ~720,000 gives ~14.4/100,000 — the upper end of the uncertainty band, and materially below the discredited 17.3 figure. Career probability at the CFOI headline rate over 25 years: 1 − (1 − 0.000113)^25 ≈ 0.0028 (0.28%, roughly 1 in 355).
- 独立性
- FBI LEOKA is the primary federal government data collection on officer deaths, drawing from voluntary agency-level reporting across all 50 states and federal agencies. It is methodologically distinct from the NLEOMF count (which uses a broader definition including medical events and illness). Both sources are cross-checked here.
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[2] National Law Enforcement Officers Memorial Fund (NLEOMF) — 2023 Law Enforcement Fatalities Report Reveals Law Enforcement Deaths Dropped 検証済み
2023 Law Enforcement Fatalities Report Reveals Law Enforcement Deaths Dropped- 統計値
2023: 136 total line-of-duty deaths; 47 by gunfire, 37 traffic-related, 5 COVID-19, 35 fatal medical events, 12 other; traumatic deaths (gunfire + traffic) = 84- 抜粋
“"In 2023, 136 federal, state, county, municipal, military, tribal, and campus officers died in the line of duty, representing a 39 percent decrease compared to the 224 officers who died in the line of duty in 2022. Firearms-related fatalities claimed the lives of 47 officers in 2023 — a 25 percent decrease from the 63 officers killed by gunfire in 2022. Traffic-related fatalities decreased 27 percent, with 37 deaths in 2023 compared to 51 in 2022." ”
- 出典データ
- 2024-01-10
- アクセス日
- 2026-05-10 · アーカイブ版
- 検証
- グラウンディング監査の際、抜粋を引用元から独立して再取得し、原文と一字一句一致することを確認しました。
- 計算過程
- NLEOMF's 2023 total of 84 traumatic deaths (47 gunfire + 37 traffic) cross-validates the LEOKA estimate of ~92 for 2023 (60 felonious + ~32 accidental). The ~8-unit gap reflects definitional differences: NLEOMF uses "traffic-related" which may subset differently from LEOKA's "accidental," and LEOKA covers some federal agencies not in the NLEOMF count. The NLEOMF figure of 47 gunfire deaths is consistent with FBI LEOKA's 60 felonious deaths (LEOKA includes non-firearm felonious causes; NLEOMF's 47 is firearm-specific regardless of felonious/accidental classification). Headline point estimate uses the FBI LEOKA 5-year mean; NLEOMF provides the 2023 cross-check.
- 独立性
- NLEOMF is an independent nonprofit that maintains its own officer death registry, drawing on multiple sources including agency reports and media. Its definition of "line of duty death" is broader than FBI LEOKA's felonious+accidental categories, notably including occupational illness. The NLEOMF traumatic-only subset (gunfire + traffic) is used here to align methodologically with LEOKA's scope.
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[3] U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics — Table 4. Fatal work injury rates per 100,000 full-time equivalent workers by selected occupations, 2021-23 — Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries
Table 4. Fatal work injury rates per 100,000 full-time equivalent workers by selected occupations, 2021-23 — Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries- 統計値
Fatal work injury rate per 100,000 full-time equivalent workers: Protective service occupation group 9.4 (2021), 10.2 (2022), 8.2 (2023); all workers 3.6 (2021), 3.7 (2022), 3.5 (2023)- 抜粋
“"Table 4. Fatal work injury rates(1) per 100,000 full-time equivalent workers by selected occupations, 2021-23 [...] All workers 3.6 3.7 3.5 [...] Protective service 9.4 10.2 8.2 [...] 1 Fatal injury rates are per 100,000 full-time equivalent (FTE) workers. [...] CFOI fatal injury counts exclude illness-related deaths unless precipitated by an injury event." ”
- 出典データ
- 2024-12-19
- アクセス日
- 2026-07-09 · アーカイブ版
- 計算過程
- BLS CFOI is the coverage-matched basis for this entry: it computes fatal occupational injuries per 100,000 full-time-equivalent workers, so the numerator (officer fatalities) and denominator (the officer workforce) describe the same population, and it counts traumatic fatal injuries only (illness-related deaths are excluded unless precipitated by an injury event), matching this entry's stated scope. Table 4 publishes the broad "Protective service" SOC group rate (8.2/100,000 in 2023), used here as the uncertainty low; the police-and-sheriff's-patrol-officers-specific 2023 rate of 11.3/100,000 (the headline basis) comes from BLS CFOI's detailed occupation series as reported by USAFacts. All-workers rate (3.5/100,000, 2023) supplies the general- occupation comparison in the prose. Annual headline rate 0.000113 → 25-year career 1 − (1 − 0.000113)^25 ≈ 0.0028 (~1 in 355).
- 独立性
- BLS CFOI is a federal government census of fatal occupational injuries, methodologically independent of the FBI LEOKA collection (which counts officer deaths from agency reporting) and of the NLEOMF registry. Using CFOI for the headline rate removes the numerator/denominator coverage mismatch that afflicted the prior LEOKA-count-over- assault-reporting-workforce quotient.
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[4] USAFacts — How many police officers die in the line of duty in the US?
How many police officers die in the line of duty in the US?- 統計値
BLS CFOI 2023: police officers' fatal-injury rate was 11.3 deaths per 100,000 officers; police ranked 20th among occupations for on-the-job deaths (logging highest at 98.9 per 100,000)- 抜粋
“"The BLS did not rank policing in the top 10 deadly professions in the US in 2023, the most recent year of available data. BLS ranks professions by the number of on-the-job fatalities per 100,000 full-time equivalent employees. [...] officers' rate was 11.3 deaths per 100,000 officers. [...] Police officers ranked 20th among occupations for on-the-job deaths." ”
- 出典データ
- 2024-05-16
- アクセス日
- 2026-07-09 · アーカイブ版
- 計算過程
- USAFacts republishes the BLS Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries police-and-sheriff's- patrol-officers rate of 11.3 deaths per 100,000 officers for 2023 — the headline basis for this entry. This is coverage-matched (BLS computes deaths per 100,000 FTE) and injury-only (excludes illness/COVID-19), matching the entry's scope. Annual rate 11.3/100,000 = 0.000113/year → 25-year career 1 − (1 − 0.000113)^25 ≈ 0.0028 (~1 in 355). The article notes policing ranked 20th among occupations for on-the-job deaths in 2023, well below logging (98.9/100,000).
- 独立性
- USAFacts is a nonpartisan nonprofit that compiles and republishes US government statistics with source attribution; the 11.3/100,000 figure is attributed by USAFacts to the Bureau of Labor Statistics CFOI. It is cited here because BLS's detailed occupation-level CFOI rate for police officers is not exposed on a single stable bls.gov HTML page, whereas BLS Table 4 (also cited) provides the coverage-matched methodology and the adjacent Protective-service group rate.