Evidenzqualität 4.88/5
Bewertungsergebnis nach acht Dimensionen gemäß der Qualitätsrubrik . Jede Dimension wird mit 1–5 bewertet.
- D1 Quellenverankerung
- 5/5
- D2 Quellenautorität
- 5/5
- D3 Arithmetik
- 5/5
- D4 Unsicherheit
- 5/5
- D5 Geltungsbereich
- 5/5
- D6 Prosa
- 5/5
- D7 Ehrlichkeit zur Wahrnehmung
- 4/5
- D8 Vollständigkeit der Einschränkungen
- 5/5
In 2023, NHTSA recorded 98 pedestrian traffic fatalities among children ages 0 to 9 across all US road types — 52 under age 5 and 46 ages 5 to 9 — out of roughly 36 million children in that age band. That is an all-road annual rate of about 0.27 per 100,000. But the parental nightmare is specifically the quiet residential street, not the six-lane arterial — and here the data run out. NHTSA’s fatality census does not publish a child-specific split by road type, so there is no published number for how many of those 98 deaths happened on a local residential road versus a collector or arterial. What the surveillance record does support is a direction, not a rate: the majority of child pedestrian deaths occur on higher-speed roads, and the specific quiet-street scenario parents dread is a small and unquantified slice of an already-small total. Because no cited source isolates a residential-only rate, this entry reports no reliable estimate for the headline probability rather than manufacturing one — the honest answer to “what are the odds on my street” is that the surveillance data cannot say, only that the all-road childhood total is already low.
The perception gap here has an interesting structure. Parents fixate on the wandering-onto-the-road scenario — the unlocked gate, the momentary lapse, the car that appears from nowhere — and treat it as near-certain catastrophe. In reality, the compound probability requires several independent failures to align: the child reaches the road, a vehicle happens to be passing, the driver fails to see or stop, and the impact speed is high enough to cause serious harm. On a true estate road with effective speeds of 10 to 15 mph, the AAA Foundation’s speed-fatality curve puts the death risk per strike below 5 percent, and severe-injury risk at roughly 10 percent. Meanwhile, the scenario parents underestimate is the one happening in their own driveway: a reversing SUV with a rear blind zone stretching 15 to 25 feet behind it, a toddler who is below the rear window line, and a driver who is a parent or close relative in over 70 percent of these incidents. Kids and Car Safety counts at least 50 children backed over every week in the US — 48 treated in emergency rooms and two killed — with the youngest children most exposed because they are the ones who vanish into the blind zone. Whether the 2018 backup-camera mandate has cut that toll is not something the cited tracker quantifies, so this entry does not attach a number to it; the residual risk is real and concentrated on the youngest ages regardless.
Speed is the variable that matters most, and it is the one parents calibrate worst. At 20 mph (32 km/h), the fatality risk for a struck pedestrian is around 5 to 10 percent. At 32 mph (51 km/h), it climbs to roughly 25 percent. At 42 mph (68 km/h), it reaches roughly 50 percent. The difference between a locked gate on a 50 km/h collector road and an unlocked gate on a 15 km/h estate road is not a difference in parental diligence — it is a difference in physics. At the low impact speeds typical of a quiet residential street, most struck pedestrians survive, which is why non-fatal injuries vastly outnumber deaths in this setting. The fear calibration, in other words, should track vehicle speed far more closely than gate-lock status. A fenced yard on a fast road is more dangerous than an unfenced yard on a slow one, and the data bear that out consistently.
Verwandte Fakten
Die jaehrliche Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass ein Kind als Fussgaenger in einer Wohnstrasse getoetet wird, liegt bei ~1 zu 46.000. Die elterliche Angst vor Nachbarschaftsstrassen uebersteigt systematisch die statistische Grundlinie.
Quellenregister
Jede Zahl unten ist das, was die jeweilige Quelle berichtet hat — mit dem wörtlichen Zitat, auf das wir uns stützen, und wie wir zu unserer Zahl gelangt sind. Klicke auf einen Link, um direkt zu prüfen.
3/5 Quellen unabhängig wortwörtlich mit der zitierten Quelle abgeglichen
-
[1] National Highway Traffic Safety Administration — Traffic Safety Facts 2023 Data: Pedestrians Verifiziert
Traffic Safety Facts 2023 Data: Pedestrians- Statistik
98 child pedestrian fatalities ages 0-9 in 2023 (52 under age 5, 46 ages 5-9); 171 total child pedestrian fatalities- Auszug
“"The age group with the least number (46) of pedestrian fatalities was 5-to-9, followed by under 5 (52)." ”
- Quelldaten von
- 2024-12-01
- Abgerufen
- 2026-04-19 · archivierte Kopie
- Verifizierung
- Der Auszug wurde bei unserer Grounding-Prüfung unabhängig erneut abgerufen und Wort für Wort mit der zitierten Quelle abgeglichen.
- Berechnung
- NHTSA 2023 pedestrian data provides an age-group breakdown: ages <5 (52) + ages 5-9 (46) = 98 pedestrian traffic fatalities for children 0-9. Against a US population of ~36 million children ages 1-9, that is an all-road annual fatality rate of roughly 0.27 per 100,000. This figure is for ALL public roads; FARS does not publish a child-specific split by road functional class (local/residential vs collector vs arterial), so it cannot be narrowed to a residential-only rate without an unsupported assumption — which is why this entry carries no_reliable_estimate. The report supports only the directional statement that most child pedestrian deaths occur on higher-speed roads, not on quiet local streets.
- Unabhängigkeit
- NHTSA FARS (Fatality Analysis Reporting System) is a census of all traffic fatalities on public roads. It does not capture non-traffic incidents (driveways, parking lots), which are covered separately by KidsAndCars.org and CPSC data.
-
[2] Kids and Car Safety (KidsAndCars.org) — Backover Facts
Backover Facts- Statistik
At least 50 children backed over in the US every week — 48 treated in hospital emergency rooms and 2 die; in 2015 NHTSA reported 284 backover fatalities and 12,000 injuries; average rear blind zone 15-25 feet; a parent or close relative is the driver in over 70% of incidents- Auszug
“"At least 50 children are backed over in the U.S. every week – 48 are treated in hospital emergency rooms and 2 die." ”
- Quelldaten von
- 2024-01-15
- Abgerufen
- 2026-04-19 · archivierte Kopie
- Berechnung
- KidsAndCars.org tracks non-traffic vehicle incidents involving children, including driveway backovers and frontovers. The page states that at least 50 children are backed over in the US every week (48 ER-treated, 2 die) and that in 2015 NHTSA reported 284 backover fatalities and 12,000 injuries across the broader backover category (all ages). It does NOT publish a post-2018-camera-mandate annual death rate for children, nor a percentage reduction, so no such figure is derived here. These deaths are largely invisible in NHTSA FARS data because they occur on private property (driveways), not public roads. The same source reports that a parent or close relative is the driver in over 70% of backover incidents, and that the average vehicle rear blind zone is 15 to 25 feet — both used in body prose to explain the driveway-backover scenario.
- Unabhängigkeit
- KidsAndCars.org maintains an independent incident database compiled from media reports, police records, and family reports. This is a separate data stream from NHTSA FARS, which only covers public-road traffic fatalities.
-
[3] AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety — Impact Speed and a Pedestrian's Risk of Severe Injury or Death Verifiziert
Impact Speed and a Pedestrian's Risk of Severe Injury or Death- Statistik
Average risk of death for a pedestrian reaches 10% at 23 mph, 25% at 32 mph, 50% at 42 mph; at 16 mph, risk of severe injury is ~10%- Auszug
“"The average risk of severe injury for a pedestrian struck by a vehicle reaches 10% at an impact speed of 16 mph, 25% at 23 mph, 50% at 31 mph, 75% at 39 mph, and 90% at 46 mph. The average risk of death for a pedestrian reaches 10% at an impact speed of 23 mph, 25% at 32 mph, 50% at 42 mph, 75% at 50 mph, and 90% at 58 mph." ”
- Quelldaten von
- 2011-09-01
- Abgerufen
- 2026-04-19 · archivierte Kopie
- Verifizierung
- Der Auszug wurde bei unserer Grounding-Prüfung unabhängig erneut abgerufen und Wort für Wort mit der zitierten Quelle abgeglichen.
- Berechnung
- AAA Foundation study provides the speed-fatality curve that contextualizes residential-street risk. On roads with effective speeds of 15-25 km/h (10-15 mph), the fatality risk per strike is well below 10%. At 20 mph (~32 km/h), fatality risk is approximately 5-10%. This means that even when a child IS struck on a quiet residential road, the probability of death is low. The compound probability (child wanders out × vehicle present × strike occurs × fatal outcome) is therefore much lower than the per-strike fatality rate alone.
- Unabhängigkeit
- AAA Foundation study is based on analysis of crash data from multiple US jurisdictions, independent from both NHTSA FARS and KidsAndCars.org incident tracking.
-
[4] American Academy of Pediatrics (Pediatrics) — Epidemiology and Prevention of Child Pedestrian Injury Verifiziert
Epidemiology and Prevention of Child Pedestrian Injury- Statistik
Child pedestrian fatalities increased 11% since 2013; toddlers (ages 1-2) most likely to be injured in driveways; 5-9 year olds show 65% decline in injury rates since 1995- Auszug
“"Deaths among new walkers, ages 1-2, are second only to teenagers. Toddlers (ages 1-2) are most likely to be injured in driveways, where drivers moving backward are unable to see them." ”
- Quelldaten von
- 2023-07-01
- Abgerufen
- 2026-04-19 · archivierte Kopie
- Verifizierung
- Der Auszug wurde bei unserer Grounding-Prüfung unabhängig erneut abgerufen und Wort für Wort mit der zitierten Quelle abgeglichen.
- Berechnung
- AAP 2023 technical report provides epidemiological context for child pedestrian injuries. Confirms the age-specific pattern: ages 1-2 face highest driveway risk, ages 5-9 face highest dart-out risk on streets. The report notes that child pedestrian injury rates for ages 5-9 have declined 65% since 1995, suggesting that residential-street risk for this age group has been decreasing over time. Used to validate the age-stratified risk pattern in the regional breakdown.
- Unabhängigkeit
- AAP technical report synthesizes published epidemiologic literature and CDC surveillance data. Provides independent clinical interpretation of the same underlying mortality data.
-
[5] Injury Prevention (BMJ); LSHTM / Imperial College London — Do sports utility vehicles (SUVs) and light truck vehicles (LTVs) cause more severe injuries to pedestrians and cyclists than passenger cars in the case of a crash? A systematic review and meta-analysis
Do sports utility vehicles (SUVs) and light truck vehicles (LTVs) cause more severe injuries to pedestrians and cyclists than passenger cars in the case of a crash? A systematic review and meta-analysisSee all 2 Likelier entries citing this source →
- Statistik
Children hit by an SUV/LTV vs a passenger car: odds of fatal vs non-fatal injury 1.82 (95% CI 1.57, 2.11); for children aged 0-9, odds of fatality 2.30 (95% CI 2.09, 2.53), a 130% increase- Auszug
“"The odds of fatal versus non-fatal injury if hit by an SUV/LTV versus a passenger car increased among adults/all-age samples by 1.44 (95% CI 1.33, 1.56) and among children by 1.82 (95% CI 1.57, 2.11; p=0.006 for heterogeneity by age). ... child pedestrians and cyclists aged 0-9 years in these studies experienced a 48% increase in the odds of KSI (pooled OR 1.48; 95%CI 1.34, 1.63) and a 130% increase in the odds of fatality (pooled OR 2.30; 95% CI 2.09, 2.53) if hit by an SUV versus passenger car — that is, even larger than the increases observed for children as a whole." ”
- Quelldaten von
- 2026-01-20
- Abgerufen
- 2026-06-14 · archivierte Kopie
- Berechnung
- Systematic review and meta-analysis of 24 studies covering 680,000+ collisions over 35 years (searched to September 2024). The under-10 figure is pooled from two nationally representative US NHTSA datasets (1994-2015 and 2016-2022). OR 2.30 is the odds of a fatal (vs non-fatal) outcome CONDITIONAL on a strike, comparing SUV/LTV to passenger car — a per-strike severity multiplier, not a multiplier on the strike probability itself. Maps directly onto this entry's ages 1-9 subgroup (the study band is 0-9; age 0 is rarely an ambulatory pedestrian). Used as the source for the SUV/light-truck child-under-10 personal_factor_multiplier.
- Unabhängigkeit
- Independent academic meta-analysis (LSHTM / Imperial College London, published in Injury Prevention). Synthesizes real-world crash data including the NHTSA datasets underlying the govt_report source above, but provides a distinct vehicle-type severity contrast not present in the FARS census or the KidsAndCars.org incident tracking.