Evidenzqualität 4.63/5
Bewertungsergebnis nach acht Dimensionen gemäß der Qualitätsrubrik . Jede Dimension wird mit 1–5 bewertet.
- D1 Quellenverankerung
- 5/5
- D2 Quellenautorität
- 5/5
- D3 Arithmetik
- 4/5
- D4 Unsicherheit
- 4/5
- D5 Geltungsbereich
- 5/5
- D6 Prosa
- 5/5
- D7 Ehrlichkeit zur Wahrnehmung
- 4/5
- D8 Vollständigkeit der Einschränkungen
- 5/5
There is no reliable estimate of the probability that an individual crypto holder ends up with a total or near-total loss. What the public data measures is the aggregate scale of the loss vectors, not a per-holder rate. The FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center logged more than 140,000 cryptocurrency-related complaints in 2024, totaling roughly $9.3 billion in reported losses, with individuals over 60 filing about 33,000 of them for $2.8 billion. Chainalysis tracked roughly $2.2 billion stolen through on-chain hacks in 2024 across 303 incidents, up about 21% from the year before. The FTC, which counts only fraud where crypto was the payment method, recorded about $1.4 billion in 2024. These are dollar totals across the whole market — dividing them by an assumed number of holders and calling the result a personal probability would require guesses none of the sources make, so we do not publish a headline number for this risk.
What makes this risk unusual is the range of mechanisms. Traditional brokerage customers face essentially one failure mode (broker insolvency, mitigated by SIPC insurance). Crypto holders face at least four largely independent vectors: the exchange can fail (FTX, Mt. Gox, QuadrigaCX), the protocol can be hacked — private-key compromises alone accounted for 43.8% of the crypto stolen on-chain in 2024, per Chainalysis — the token itself can go to zero (the default outcome for most small-cap altcoins), or the holder can simply lose access to their own keys. That last category is the quietly distinctive one: unlike a bank balance, a self-custodied wallet with a lost seed phrase is gone with no recovery desk to call. Each of these vectors is real and documented in the aggregate, but none maps cleanly onto a probability that a given holder will be hit.
The personal risk varies by at least an order of magnitude depending on behavior, which is a large part of why a single headline number would be misleading even if the data supported one. A holder of Bitcoin and Ethereum on a regulated US exchange with two-factor authentication faces primarily market risk — and Bitcoin has recovered from every 80%+ crash in its history, including drawdowns in 2011, 2014-15, 2018, and 2022. A holder of small-cap DeFi tokens on an offshore exchange with funds secured by a seed phrase written on a napkin now resting in a landfill faces something far worse. The personal factor multipliers below describe the direction of those differences; they are not multipliers on a published baseline rate, because there isn’t one.
Verwandte Fakten
15% der Krypto-Investoren erleiden Totalverlust. 20% aller Bitcoin sind dauerhaft unzugaenglich. Boersencrashs (99% sicher) haben sich immer erholt. Eine Anlageklasse verzeiht. Die andere vergisst dein Passwort.
Geschaetzt 20% aller jemals geschuerften Bitcoin sind dauerhaft unzugaenglich: verlorene Passwoerter, defekte Festplatten, weggeworfene Wallets. 15% der Krypto-Investoren erleiden Totalverlust. Die groesste Bedrohung sind nicht Hacker. Es ist das menschliche Gedaechtnis.
Etwa 42% der jemals betriebenen Kryptowaehrungsboersen haben geschlossen, viele mit den Kundengeldern. Die Lebenszeit-Wahrscheinlichkeit eines Totalverlusts fuer Krypto-Halter wird auf 15% geschaetzt.
Quellenregister
Jede Zahl unten ist das, was die jeweilige Quelle berichtet hat — mit dem wörtlichen Zitat, auf das wir uns stützen, und wie wir zu unserer Zahl gelangt sind. Klicke auf einen Link, um direkt zu prüfen.
1/3 Quellen unabhängig wortwörtlich mit der zitierten Quelle abgeglichen
-
[1] FBI Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) — 2024 Internet Crime Report
2024 Internet Crime ReportSee all 2 Likelier entries citing this source →
- Statistik
Over 140,000 cryptocurrency-related complaints in 2024, totaling approximately $9.3 billion in losses; individuals over 60 filed ~33,000 complaints with $2.8B in losses- Auszug
“"The IC3 received more than 140,000 complaints referencing cryptocurrency in 2024, resulting in roughly $9.3 billion in losses." ”
- Quelldaten von
- 2025-04-23
- Abgerufen
- 2026-04-19 · archivierte Kopie
- Berechnung
- FBI IC3 captures reported crypto fraud losses in the US: more than 140,000 cryptocurrency-related complaints in 2024 totaling roughly $9.3B, of which individuals over 60 accounted for about 33,000 complaints and $2.8B. These are reported losses only; actual losses are likely higher since many victims never file. They span investment scams, romance scams with crypto payment, and other fraud where cryptocurrency was the payment method. This is an aggregate dollar figure, not a per-holder loss rate — the losses are highly concentrated among the minority of holders who are victimized, so it cannot be turned into a probability that a given holder suffers a total loss.
-
[2] Chainalysis — $2.2 Billion Stolen in Crypto in 2024 but Hacked Volumes Stagnate Verifiziert
$2.2 Billion Stolen in Crypto in 2024 but Hacked Volumes Stagnate- Statistik
$2.2 billion stolen via crypto hacks in 2024 across 303 incidents; private key compromises accounted for 43.8% of stolen crypto; North Korean hackers stole $1.34B (61% of total)- Auszug
“"Funds stolen increased by approximately 21.07% year-over-year to $2.2 billion, and the number of individual hacking incidents increased from 282 in 2023 to 303 in 2024." ”
- Quelldaten von
- 2025-01-15
- Abgerufen
- 2026-04-19 · archivierte Kopie
- Verifizierung
- Der Auszug wurde bei unserer Grounding-Prüfung unabhängig erneut abgerufen und Wort für Wort mit der zitierten Quelle abgeglichen.
- Berechnung
- Chainalysis tracks on-chain theft across exchanges, DeFi protocols, and bridges. The $2.2B in 2024 and $3.4B in 2025 (including the $1.5B Bybit hack) represent direct theft via hacking — separate from the FBI's fraud figures, which include social-engineering scams. This source measures aggregate stolen dollars, not the probability that an individual holder is a theft victim, so it bounds the theft vector's magnitude rather than a per-holder loss rate. (An earlier draft attributed a "3-4 million BTC permanently lost" lost-key figure to this hacking article; that article does not state it, so the claim has been removed pending a correctly cited lost-key source.)
- Unabhängigkeit
- Chainalysis tracks on-chain fund flows independently from FBI IC3 complaint data. The two sources measure different things: Chainalysis captures hacking and theft visible on-chain; IC3 captures victim-reported fraud complaints. Some overlap exists where hack victims also file IC3 complaints.
-
[3] Federal Trade Commission — New FTC Data Show a Big Jump in Reported Losses to Fraud to $12.5 Billion in 2024
New FTC Data Show a Big Jump in Reported Losses to Fraud to $12.5 Billion in 2024See all 2 Likelier entries citing this source →
- Statistik
Cryptocurrency accounted for $1.42 billion in reported consumer fraud losses by payment method in 2024; Bitcoin ATM fraud losses topped $65 million in H1 2024 alone- Auszug
“"Consumers reported losing more than $12.5 billion to fraud in 2024, which represents a 25% increase over the prior year." ”
- Quelldaten von
- 2025-03-06
- Abgerufen
- 2026-04-19 · archivierte Kopie
- Berechnung
- FTC Consumer Sentinel data captures fraud where crypto was the payment method, a narrower slice than FBI IC3 (which counts all crypto-related fraud). The $1.42B FTC figure is a subset of the $9.3B IC3 figure. These are aggregate fraud-loss figures, not per-holder loss rates, so they bound the fraud vector's magnitude rather than the probability of total loss.
- Unabhängigkeit
- FTC Consumer Sentinel collects complaints from a different intake channel than FBI IC3. There is substantial overlap — some consumers report to both — but the FTC captures a broader range of consumer fraud complaints and uses different categorization.